Do the Minnesota Twins have enough starting pitching?

Jose Berrios

Why he will succeed in 2020: The cause for optimism when it comes to Berrios stems from his performance up until the trade deadline. That’s because prior to the calendar turning to August, Berrios looked like an ace ready to breakout and even contend for an American League Cy Young Award.

Through his first 22 starts, Berrios went 10-5 with a 2.80 ERA and opponents were having their share of issues, recording just a .651 OPS against the right-hander. In addition, the Twins were 14-8 in his starts and with a dominant outing against the Miami Marlins (7 IP, 2 H, 11 K) hours after the trade deadline, it didn’t look like Minnesota needed an ace.

This is the form the Twins are hoping to get from Berrios in 2020 and there’s good reason to think he could come close. His chase rate of 36.4% was a career-high and his swinging strike percentage of 10.8% was just shy of matching his career-high set in 2018, with 11.2%. Due to turn 26 in May, there’s a good chance that Berrios has an extra gear to improve those numbers and make another case to be the team’s ace of the future.

Why it’s not a given: Despite his dominant start to the season statistically, there were times where Berrios just didn’t seem like he had an extra gear. Whether it was due to injury or fatigue, Berrios’ high wire routine took a turn for the worse beginning with a career-high nine earned runs against Atlanta on Aug. 6.

In his final 10 starts, Berrios allowed five or more earned runs in four of them and although he somewhat steadied the ship, he wasn’t the same pitcher as he went into his postseason start against the Yankees.

This has been the biggest mystery surrounding Berrios as he looks to find consistency in 2020, but there’s other factors at play. His fastball velocity has sunk in every season since he made his debut in 2015 (94.2 mph) to a career-low 93.5 mph last season. To make matters worse, while Berrios still had a career-high chase rate, opponents made contact 67.3% of the time for his highest percentage since his rookie season.

Perhaps this is a matter of bad luck in his final 10 starts, but his career numbers in the first half (26-15, 3.70 ERA) are a significant step up from his second-half numbers (17-19, 4.84 ERA). Mix in a 8.76 K/9 rate that was his lowest since 2017 (8.59) and a steep drop from 2018 (9.45) and it’s not a secret why relying on Berrios to be an ace in October is a risky idea.

Jake Odorizzi

Why he’ll succeed in 2020: In the first year of Wes Johnson’s tenure with the Twins, he had several reclamation projects he could hang his hat on. With Martin Perez and Kyle Gibson both fading in the second half however, the biggest improvement in the starting rotation came on Odorizzi’s right arm.

In 2019, Odorizzi went from inconsistent starter to dominant ace in the first half holding an ERA under 2.00 (1.92 to be exact) through his first 13 starts. At the heart of it was a change mechanically, as Odorizzi completely ditched his slider (21.0% usage rate in 2018 with .323 WOBA) to use his cutter significantly more (2.4% in ’18 to 18.5% in ’19 with .281 WOBA).

With his cutter gaining just under four inches from 2018 to 2019, he was able to keep hitters off guard and logged a career-high 10.1 K/9 rate that led to his first All-Star selection. With the strongest start of any Twins starter in the ALDS (5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 5 K in Game 3), it’s the type of performance Minnesota was hoping for by bringing him back on a $17.8 million qualifying offer.

Why that’s not a given: Odorizzi was great in the first half of the season, but much like his cutter counterpart Perez, teams seemed to figure him out after the first couple of months.

The month of July was a glaring example of this as Odorizzi couldn’t seem to get out of the ruts he avoided in the first three months. In five starts, Odorizzi only lasted 23 innings and was blasted to the tune of a 7.43 ERA. The good news is this was the lone month where Odorizzi struggled, but it also saw him revert to a five-to-six inning pitcher for the rest of the season.

The reality is that the Twins aren’t going to see Odorizzi duplicate his month of May (4-0, 0.94 ERA) again, but if he can be somewhere in the middle, he’d be a reliable third or fourth starter in this rotation.

Michael Pineda

Why he’ll succeed in 2020: After Berrios and Odorizzi, Pineda is where the question marks begin for the Twins rotation. While Berrios and Odorizzi are near locks to remain in the rotation throughout the season, Pineda is coming off a year where he was better than expected but saw his season come to a halt after being popped with a 60-game suspension for violating MLB’s substance abuse policy.

The suspension was crippling for the Twins chances in the postseason because the big right-hander had turned into Minnesota’s best starter down the stretch run after a rough month of April.

In his final 20 starts, Pineda looked like the pitcher who showed flashes of success with the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees earlier in his career, going 9-3 with a 3.46 ERA. That stretch included wins in his final five decisions where he recorded a 3.00 ERA and .674 OPS.

Such a run may seem like a fluke for a guy that was removed two years from Tommy John surgery, but a lot of his numbers were on par with his career. His biggest consistency has been his control, which saw him walk just 4.7% of batters, putting him in the 95th percentile among starting pitchers last season.

With Pineda able to throw strikes (50% of pitches were in the zone last season) and limit walks, it’s a simple formula that should continue to see success.

Why that’s not a given: The greatest ability is the availability and Pineda is one of two pitchers that won’t see the field for the first couple months of the season. With 39 games remaining on his suspension, the Twins will have to fill a (literally) big hole in their rotation for the first couple months of the season. Even then, it may not be a given that Pineda will be in peak form by the time he hits the mound.

The Twins have some experience with this unfortunate circumstance with the 2015 suspension of Ervin Santana and the 2018 suspension of Jorge Polanco. Both players were popped with a PED policy suspension, but they had the luxury of getting it all out of the way at the beginning of the season. In both cases, their returns posted decent numbers (Polanco hit .288 with 6 HR and 42 RBI in 77 games while Santana went 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA), but neither went on a tear.

Minnesota will have to hope that Pineda is ready when his season begins in late May or that some of the younger prospects step up in his absence.

Homer Bailey

Why he’ll succeed in 2020: When the news of Bailey’s signing with the Twins hit, it reeked of the typical bargain basement deals the Twins used to strike when former General Manager Terry Ryan was at the controls. While Bailey came on a cheap, one-year deal, there’s enough promise that he can be better than his predecessor Kyle Gibson.

As noted in a previous article at Puckett’s Pond, Bailey projects similarly to Gibson from 2018 where the right-hander posted a 10-13 record but also posted a career-low 3.62 ERA. The Twins were hopeful that Gibson could build off of that in 2019 and actually pitched well in his first 13 starts, going 7-3 with a 3.70 ERA.

Those numbers will fly for a No. 3 starter at the beginning of the season and there’s a chance that Bailey will provide just that. Thanks to increased usage in his splitter, Bailey’s career was resurrected in Kansas City before being shipped to Oakland midway through last season. The overall numbers (13-9, 4.57 ERA) weren’t eye-popping, but he showed he can run hot and cold like Gibson, going 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his final eight starts for the Athletics.

Why that’s not a given: Prior to last season, Bailey’s career was turning into a dumpster fire. The 33-year-old (who will turn 34 in May) hit rock bottom in 2018, going 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA in 20 starts for the Cincinnati Reds. With a massive contract complicating things, he was involved in a deal that sent Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig to the Reds where he was basically a salary dump.

The biggest issue with Bailey has been his control where in his 13-year big league career, he’s posted a 2.5 K/BB ratio. Even in the first half with the Royals, his K/BB ratio was 2.13 and took a huge uptick when he was traded to Oakland.

But by comparison, Gibson’s K/BB ratio for his career is 2.16 and while last season sparked a 2.86 ratio. Bailey also throws more pitches in the strike zone (49.5% to Gibson’s 39.9%), so his job might be to simply be better than Gibson, but he’ll have to be more consistent to pull that off.

Rich Hill

Why he’ll succeed in 2020: While not the biggest name on the market thanks to his age (he’ll turn 40 in March) and recent injury history (which we’ll get to in a minute), Hill has been one of the best starters in all of baseball when healthy. Since becoming a full-time starter during the 2015 season, Hill has gone 39-19 on the mound with a 3.00 ERA — numbers that Twins fans would have killed for from a starting pitching acquisition last season.

At the source of this is Hill’s ability to win with location and a deadly curveball. Baseball Savant is a big fan of HIll’s recording him in elite company in fastball spin (91st percentile), curveball spin (95th), exit velocity (98th) despite having a fastball that ranks in the 15th percentile in terms of velocity.

All of these are things that can translate under an analytics-driven front office like the Twins and if the Twins can get him healthy by his reported timetable of June, they could have a steal on their hands even if he reaches the full $12.5 million on his deal after incentives.

Why that’s not a given: Notice how I said: “if he’s healthy.” This has been a big issue with Hill since becoming a starter. While the numbers have been great, the assurance that he’ll be on the mound to make his next start has been a roller coaster ride.

In each of the past three seasons, Hill has thrown a maximum of 135 2/3 innings (2017) and after several injuries last season, threw 58 2/3 in 13 starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers. With everything stacking up, the left-hander underwent elbow revision surgery this offseason, which is an alternative to Tommy John surgery.

Waiting on Hill is certainly a risk for the Twins, who may be rolling with a couple of depth players until the rotation gets sorted out. But with his effectiveness when he’s on the mound, he should have a role even if the Twins need to limit his innings by using him out of the bullpen late in the season.

The Alternatives

Devin Smeltzer – Smeltzer was one of the best stories on the 2019 Twins, making his major league debut after defeating cancer as a child. While his numbers (2-2, 3.86 ERA) where solid last season, he also has some flaws that saw his performance tail off as the year went on. Perhaps the presence of Hill will help Smeltzer, who has a sixth-percentile fastball in terms of velocity but ranked in the 87th percentile in spin rate, will help him make a jump, but he stands as a favorite to take an early-season spot in the rotation.

Randy Dobnak – Dobnak has spent the offseason getting treated as a human pinata for having the audacity for driving an Uber last spring training. As the Yankees also teed off on the 25-year-old in the ALDS, it’s hard to remember that Dobnak was very good for the Twins (2-1, 1.59 ERA) and made the jump from High-A to the major leagues in the course of five months. His analytics do not jump off the page, but his audition as a starter late in the season (2-0, 1.10 ERA in three starts) could serve as a springboard in 2020.

Lewis Thorpe – The overall numbers for Thorpe (3-2, 6.18 ERA) were not pretty, but there are a couple of things that could lead to future success. The No. 11 prospect in the organization according to MLB Pipeline struggled with his control with 10 walks in 27 2/3 innings but also showed an ability to miss bats thanks to a slider that logged a 44.6% whiff rate and fueled a 10.1 K/9 rate. If there is an improvement from the left-hander in 2020, he could be a prospect that exceeds expectations.

Brusdar Graterol – Graterol will begin the 2020 season in the bullpen, but that’s a smart move for a pitcher that’s never thrown for more than 102 innings in a professional season. By keeping him in the bullpen, Graterol can work on his craft against MLB hitters and if things go well (and poorly in the rotation), the Twins have the option of stretching him out late in the year to plug him into the rotation.

Conclusion

There are a couple of ways to measure if the Twins have done enough over the offseason to consider their moves this offseason a success. While they failed to land the big fish, they’ve done enough to improve their rotation last year if Hill and Bailey can outproduce Perez and Gibson and an assumed jump inconsistency from Berrios.

If Pineda and Odorizzi can return in their 2019 form, this is a rotation that is good enough to win the American League Central even with the Cleveland Indians’ stable of young pitchers (Shane Beiber, Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco) and the Chicago White Sox free-agent shopping spree to compliment their rotation (Dallas Keuchel, Lucas Giolito and the returning Carlos Rondon).

The question is whether the Twins can compete with some of the teams they’ll be running into come playoff time. The New York Yankees got significantly better with the addition of Gerrit Cole and the Houston Astros still have Justin Verlander and Zack Grienke. Even Tampa Bay has some prized young arms (Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell) and Oakland (Jesus Lazardo, Frankie Montas, Sean Manea) could be a sleeper team that has better arms.

This will make the first couple of months imperative for the Twins. If Minnesota can get off to a good start and wait to see what they have in Pineda and Hill, they could have a stable of quality arms that could get better as the season goes along. There’s also the chance that some teams will be willing to part with a piece that could make for an interesting trade deadline acquisition.

The starting pitching staff for the Twins is far from complete, but for the start of the season, they’ll have to ride it out and let the chips fall where they may.