Minnesota Twins: 5 trade targets to improve the Twins’ starting rotation

The Minnesota Twins have come up empty in their search for free-agent pitching, meaning to bolster the rotation, it will have to come via trade.

It was supposed to be a happier Christmas for the Minnesota Twins as they seemed poised to do plenty of holiday shopping this winter. In a world where free agents were not pursued at a rapid rate in years past, it seemed as if the Twins would have no problem adding a free-agent pitcher or two to help a rotation that started strong but fell off a cliff in 2019.

Fast forward two months and the Twins have reportedly been linked to many free-agent pitchers including Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu, but couldn’t get any of them to sign on the line to come to Minnesota. With the market moving faster than expected, the Twins were left out in the cold and fans were treated to coal in their Christmas stockings.

With all hope lost as far as finding a viable pitcher in free agency, the Twins will now have to turn to the trade market in order to add “impact pitching.” Fortunately for the Twins, that market should have plenty of names to choose from, but acquiring one of them would mean parting with an everyday player like Eddie Rosario or top prospects such as one of their promising outfielders or pitchers.

Regardless of what it takes to acquire an arm, the Twins must be active in the trade market if they don’t want to repeat their own history, but who could be on their list?

Jon Gray

In 2013, the Twins were taking their rightful spot at the top of the MLB Draft order when they held the fourth overall pick. After the Houston Astros took Mark Appel with the first pick, the Chicago Cubs selected Kris Bryant and the Colorado Rockies took Jon Gray. Now, in a draft that also included Austin Meadows, Tim Anderson and some guy named Aaron Judge, the Twins settled for Kohl Stewart with their pick, but that’s not the point.

The Twins were considered a potential destination for Gray at one point and after a couple of rocky years in Colorado (no pun intended), the Twins have a chance to reunite with the 27-year old with hopes they can improve his game.

So far, Gray’s stats in the majors haven’t been anything to write home about. He owns a career ERA of 4.46 and last year, he was in the fourth percentile in hard-hit pitches at 43.6% per Baseball Savant. Much like Price, why would the Twins want a guy that has struggled to keep his ERA under four for the majority of his career? Because the Twins might be able to make him better.

Throughout his five-year career, Gray has had plenty of negatives including a four-seam fastball (.409 WOBA) and changeup (.601 WOBA) that got slaughtered in 2019. But there have also been positives including a 3.77 career FIP and a slider that generated a 41.2% whiff rate last season.

A comparison to this year’s free-agent class would have been Zack Wheeler, but Seth Stohs of Twins Daily pointed out that Gray compares very well to Gerritt Cole before he was traded from Pittsburgh to Houston in 2017. Long story short, if Wes Johnson can get through and refine some of the things such as the lack of movement on all of his pitches, there could be enough improvement to make Gray a diamond in the rough.

Chris Archer

As an author of several pieces on this topic, I refuse to let the dream of Chris Archer coming to Minnesota die. The 31-year old was once considered one of the brightest young stars in the game, but his stint in Pittsburgh has been extremely disappointing without considering he was traded for two younger stars in Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow.

That trade notwithstanding, the situation in Pittsburgh has been a dumpster fire over the past year. Although former Twins bench coach Derek Shelton took over the managerial job from Clint Hurdle, the Pirates have a lot of work to do to get back to being a functional franchise and the best way to do that may be to start over.

If they choose to go that route, Archer may be a name thrown out there to fetch a piece or two for the rebuild as his past reputation may entice a team to bite. Before coming to Pittsburgh, Archer was a stud for the Rays, posting a 3.63 ERA and a stong 9.7 K/9 rate. In the past two seasons, he has seen his ERA inflate to 4.70 but also experienced a jump in his K/9 to 10.2.

The issue in Pittsburgh is that the Pirates have seemed to have adopted the old pitch to contact philosophy. With a desire to get ground balls over strikeouts, it’s what held back others such as Cole and Charlie Morton, who have thrived once leaving the organization. There are positives to Archer’s game and although it would be a reclamation project, the reward might be worth the risk.

Sandy Alcantara

While there hasn’t been much smoke from the Twins on the trade market, a rumored partner has been the Miami Marlins. While the Twins have floated out the idea of sending Eddie Rosario or Jake Cave to Miami to acquire one of their young pitchers, the best-case scenario of a Marlins deal would be landing Sandy Alcantara.

Like many of the trade targets in this slider, Alcantara’s name isn’t going to have people jumping for joy, but he could be a pitcher on the rise. The 24-year old made his first All-Star game in 2019 despite recording a record of 6-14 and a shockingly low K/9 rate of 6.9. But just like the others, there are positives in his game that at a young age could make him a great target.

When it comes to his inability to strike hitters out, it’s more of a matter of inexperience than talent. Alcantara’s fastball velocity (95.6 MPH) registered in the 84th percentile according to Statcast and he projected favorably in exit velocity (81st percentile) and fastball spin rate (75th percentile). Mix in his movement on his changeup and fastball trending upward over his first three seasons and Alcantara definitely gives Wes Johnson something to work with.

Alcantara’s weakness has been his control, which saw his BB/9 rates above six before getting it down to 3.7 this past season. However, the right-hander saw increases in his K/9 rate (7.6) and BB/K ratio (1.49 to 2.38) in the second half and could be an interesting project moving forward.

Matthew Boyd

Trades within the division are becoming more common in Major League Baseball and while the Cleveland Indians weren’t willing to deal Corey Kluber to the Twins, a team that is further out of contention might be more willing to make a deal.

After whispers of being on the block at the trade deadline, Matthew Boyd is a pitcher that might not figure into the Tigers’ long-term plans. The left-hander will turn 29 in February and with the Tigers light-years from contending in the AL Central, it’s possible that Detroit will deal him to acquire more components for their rebuild.

This is a situation where the Twins could get a solid starter to help with the second or third spot in their rotation. Boyd has a career ERA of 4.92 but has shown signs of figuring things out in the past couple of seasons with increases in his K/BB ratio in each of the past three seasons and a massive jump in his K/9 rate from 8.4 in 2018 to 11.6 in 2019.

Boyd isn’t going to blow anyone away with his 92.1 MPH fastball but makes up for his velocity with movement by being in the 77th percentile in fastball spin rate per Baseball Savant. With a slider, changeup and curve that logged chase rates over 35% last season, Boyd has the stuff to get hitters out even if it’s not putting radar guns on tilt.

With three more years of team control, Boyd will be attractive to the Twins. It just depends if the Tigers want to take the risk of leaving him in the division to help their own team get better.