Minnesota Twins Free Agency: Ranking the Twins potential starting pitching targets
The Minnesota Twins are going to be heavily involved in the pitching market during free agency this year, but which players should they target?
Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or still in a cave after another ALDS sweep), the Minnesota Twins need pitching and are heading into this offseason looking to acquire it. Although two spots in the rotation are currently filled with Jose Berrios under contract and Jake Odorizzi returning on a one-year qualifying offer, the Twins are still looking to fill the other three spots either in the free agent market or via trade.
Between Kyle Gibson (who signed with the Texas Rangers last week), Martin Perez (who had his club option declined) and Michael Pineda (who is at the end of his two-year deal with the team), the Twins will be looking to replace 761 1/3 innings on the mound, which means they’ll have to ditch their notoriously frugal ways of the past in order to field a competitive staff in 2020.
The good news for the Twins is that this year’s free-agent pitching class is pretty deep. Although they’re not expected to go after top options Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole, there’s enough here for the Twins to add a quality starter or two before reaching into the minor league system (think Brusdar Graterol) or even a trade to fill the fifth spot.
So who are some of the names that Twins fans should know heading into free agency? With the hot stove heating up, we broke down some of the pitchers into tiers to see what they bring to the table and how they can help solve the Twins’ pitching woes.
Tier One
The pitchers in the top tier are names that the Twins probably won’t go after, but if they did, it would be a massive upgrade and add an ace to the top of the rotation. The issue with going after these names is that it may cost too much money and could take away from the Twins budget (which has been rumored to be about $70 million per Twins Daily) to add another pitcher (or two) for the back half of the rotation.
Gerrit Cole
We already wrote a piece on the prospects of Cole coming to the Twins and although it’s unlikely, it’s fun to imagine getting the top prize on the free-agent market coming to Minnesota. Where most free-agent arms are on the verge of having their arms explode (remember Yu Darvish?), Cole is entering his prime after turning 29 in September and striking out a ridiculous 326 batters in 212 1/3 innings last season.
Cole should have all 30 teams in Major League Baseball (outside of the ones that are tanking) interested in his services and that could have him holding the rest of the market in the palm of his hands. According to SNY’s Andy Martino, Cole isn’t expected to sign until January (a report that his agent, Scott Boras, shot down), but once he does it should set the top of the market with a deal that could approach over $300 million.
Stephen Strasburg
It appeared for a while that Cole would be the lone name at the top of the free-agent class, but then Strasburg decided to put the Washington Nationals on his back in the postseason run. The 31-year old has been as advertised after being selected with the first pick in the 2009 MLB Draft compiling a career ERA of 3.17 and never losing more than seven games in a season.
However, it was his performance this past October (5-0, 1.98 ERA) that raised Strasburg’s value and led him to opt-out of his contract to cash in on his postseason success. While Cole coming to Minnesota seems like it’s something out of MLB The Show, there might be an outside chance the Twins can land Strasburg since he’ll be a little cheaper (MLB Trade Rumors projected a six-year, $180 million deal), but that still might be out of Minnesota’s price range.
Tier Two
Pitchers in this tier will be the most likely targets for the Twins this free agency. While they don’t have the appeal of Cole and Strasburg, they should fit the mold of “impact pitching” that the Twins declared they were out to seek this season. While the pitchers in the first tier will command triple-digit contracts, these should stay below the $100 million mark.
Zack Wheeler
Outside of Cole and Strasburg, Wheeler might be the most coveted pitcher on the market. The 29-year old (who will turn 30 in May) struggled with arm issues during the early part of his career but has rebounded nicely to go 23-15 with a 3.65 ERA over the past two seasons with the New York Mets.
Those numbers aren’t great, but a lot of teams figure there’s room for more in terms of pitch selection and his control. Wes Johnson did a great job getting the most out of his staff last season, so it’s not a surprise that the Twins have already kicked the tires of adding Wheeler to the roster.
The Twins had a flirtation with Bumgarner last summer as they looked to upgrade their pitching rotation at the deadline. While it was the deal that the Twins would have rather done with the San Francisco Giants as opposed to the one they did make, there’s a chance those conversations may have intrigued the former World Series hero and entice him to come to Minnesota.
Although there are positives (such as his seventh career 200+ inning season in 2019), there are also plenty of concerns before giving him a deal. If the Twins were to acquire Bumgarner, they would have to hope that Johnson could pull off a renaissance similar to the one that Justin Verlander has experienced late in his career with the Houston Astros. With the projected contract (four years, $72 million) not a major investment, it might be worth rolling the dice to find out.
Another name that the Twins have had an interest in is former Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu. The reigning National League ERA champion is hitting the market at the right time in theory, but a laundry list of injuries to his arm has many teams scared to invest in a pitcher that will turn 33 in March.
For all his shortcomings, the one thing that Ryu knows how to do is win games as he’s collected 54-33 record and a 2.98 ERA in six major league seasons. In addition, Ryu might have a larger market than expected after not receiving a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, meaning teams won’t have to give up a draft pick to sign him. Ryu would not be for the faint of heart, but he carries enough upside for the gamble to pay off.
Tier Three
This tier includes what I would like to dub as “Terry Ryan specials.” With the Twins having Berrios and Odorizzi already in the mix, it’s possible the Twins may turn to this group after signing one or two pitchers from one of the higher tiers. These names won’t be sexy, but for the back of the rotation, it should be enough to ease any fears.
Michael Pineda
The Twins took the gamble on Pineda in the prior to the 2018 season and while it ended with a thud (aka a 60-game suspension for violating MLB’s performance-enhancing drugs policy), it has to be considered an overall success. After spending a majority of 2018 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Pineda blossomed into the Twins’ best pitcher in 2019, going 9-3 with a 3.46 ERA after the calendar turned to May.
The question is whether the suspension was enough to burn any bridges. You could make the argument that Pineda’s suspension was what forced the Twins to start Randy Dobnak in Game 2 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium and if the Twins are still salty about it, that could be an issue. However, this team also handed Jorge Polanco a five-year contract extension coming off a year where he earned a PED suspension, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
The Twins struck out on a sudden free-agent market surge in June when they couldn’t land Keuchel or Craig Kimbrel after their draft compensation requirement was removed. While the Twins had to breathe a sigh of relief that they missed out on Kimbrel, Keuchel could have been useful for a rotation that completely fell apart in the second half.
The numbers (8-8, 3.75 ERA) that Keuchel put up weren’t terrible, but they weren’t enough to ease the concerns the Twins may have had about his shoulder. Remember, the Twins had an opportunity to sign the soon-to-be 32-year old both over the offseason and last June and didn’t do it, meaning that the Twins just might not be that interested in bringing Keuchel aboard.
Hamels used to be one of the top aces in MLB, but as he turns 36 later this month, those days are long gone. The left-hander put up stats (7-7, 3.81 ERA) that you would expect from an aging left-hander and using the term “impact pitching” as a reference, he may not be a fit. However, he can be a veteran presence for a young rotation and if the Twins want to fill the fifth spot with a reliable presence, they could do worse.
Tier Four
Our final tier represents some names that are going to be off of the scrap heap, but could make sense if the Twins want to take a flier for the back end of the rotation or to add depth in the minor leagues.
Julio Teheran – Once considered one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, Teheran has fallen short of those lofty expectations and is more of a middle of the road starter. When looking at his career (77-73, 3.87 ERA), he seems like an upgraded version of Martin Perez as his ERA has generally been a full run lower than Perez, who signed a one-year, $4 million contract last offseason. Teheran is two years older and his longer track record could generate more money, but he would at least be an intriguing flier.
Wade Miley – Not sexy by any means, but effective, Miley is an interesting flier considering he’s spent the last two years exceeding expectations. Miley served as the Milwaukee Brewers’ most reliable starter in their run to the NLCS in 2018 and went 13-4 with a 3.13 ERA in his first 27 starts with the Houston Astros. His 16.68 ERA in September aside, Miley can at least be an effective starter that can help with the fifth starter role.
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Rick Porcello – If the Twins are dead set in going back to the Wes Johnson well with one of their acquisitions, having him work with Porcello might not be a bad idea. Porcello has been a fly ball pitcher that may have his issues at Target Field, but he’s also a former Cy Young Award winner that won while pitching at Boston’s Fenway Park. He’s going to come relatively cheap and if he finds his form, he could be a steal for a team like the Twins.