Minnesota Twins Free Agent Profile: Could Zack Wheeler be the ace the Twins need?
The Minnesota Twins have been speaking with the right-hander’s representatives and he could be the Twins’ top target this winter.
You could say that things are beginning to get serious with the Minnesota Twins and Zack Wheeler. As the hot stove begins to warm up and the annual winter meetings just a couple of months away, the Twins have already begun talking to the right-hander’s representatives back at the MLB general managers’ meetings and may have continued their talks through this week’s owner’s meetings.
The Twins’ interest in Wheeler is no surprise with the team searching for “impact pitching,” but outside of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, Wheeler could be considered the top prize in the next tier of free-agent starting pitchers and for good reason.
The 29-year old has been on the upswing after losing two seasons due to his recovery from Tommy John surgery, but a strong 2019 campaign (11-8, 3.96 ERA) with the New York Mets put him in a great situation to cash in this winter as someone who has yet to scratch the surface of his potential.
Hence, Wheeler is drawing interest from several teams already and the Twins seem to be the team that’s pushing hard to bring him to Minnesota. So what is it about Wheeler that makes him so attractive for the Twins and can he be a top-of-the-rotation starter that the franchise has lacked for a majority of this past decade?
A look at Wheeler’s background
Wheeler’s career began with plenty of hype as he was selected by the San Francisco Giants with the sixth overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft. Coming out of East Paulding High School in Dallas, GA, Wheeler was considered a top prospect with a wiry frame that had room to add velocity on his fastball. That promise landed Wheeler at the Metrodome for a Perfect Game USA showcase in 2009 and scouts liked what they saw from the young-right hander.
“(Wheeler) pitched 90-93 topping at 94 with a very lively fastball and little to no effort in the Metrodome. He gets good extension out front and has an excellent breaking ball with a sharp break in the upper 70s. He commands his pitches well and everything looks easy for him on the mound. Wheeler continues to project … and he is already one of the top 2009 RHP in the country.”
While Wheeler showed off that polish with a solid first season in the Giants organization, he was traded to New York in a deal that sent Carlos Beltran to San Francisco. Once arriving in the Mets’ organization, Wheeler continued to rise up the prospect rankings ranking fifth in Baseball Prospectus’ 2013 rankings, eighth for MLB Pipeline and 11th for Baseball America.
With a fastball that sat in the mid-90s, Wheeler showed plenty of promise in his first two seasons in the major leagues, going 18-16 with a 3.50 ERA. But that velocity would come with a cost as Wheeler underwent Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2015 and his recovery took nearly two full seasons until returning to the mound in 2017 for another injury-plagued campaign that saw him go 3-7 with a 5.21 ERA.
Just as things were headed downhill, Wheeler made huge strides over the past two seasons. He enjoyed a career year in 2018 (12-7, 3.31 ERA) before backing it up with a solid effort in 2019 (11-8, 3.96 ERA), which has helped ensure his upcoming payday this winter.
What can Wheeler do for the Twins?
With Wheeler’s overall numbers not screaming for ace money, it might be worth wondering why many teams are so eager to sign the right-hander to a large free-agent deal. The answer is that Wheeler’s comeback has been filled with signs of progression, not just with the increase in his fastball velocity, which sat at a career-high 96.7 MPH last season per FanGraphs.
One of the biggest areas of improvement for Wheeler has been his control. While his first two seasons in the major leagues were strong in terms of overall numbers, Wheeler was walking 3.9 batters per nine innings. Over the past two seasons, however, that number has changed by nearly two walks per nine innings and his 3.90 strikeout to walk ratio was a career-high.
Wheeler also saw a career-high in his chase rate at 34.1% and that came despite throwing his fastball 55.9 percent of the time with two strikes. That number caused his hit rate per nine innings to rise to 9.0, but the stuff is there to take the next step as Ben Clemens stated in a piece at FanGraphs.
Simply put, Wheeler has all the makings to take a leap in the near future and there’s going to be a lot of teams that want to be a part of it. For the Twins, they’ve already seen what Wes Johnson can do to put pitchers in a position to succeed. Jake Odorizzi made his first All-Star appearance under Anderson and although things fell apart late, he got through to Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson, and even Martin Perez to get the most out of them.
How can the Twins land Wheeler?
It’s no secret that the Twins are going to try to be big spenders in free agency. With their preliminary talks with Wheeler, it’s at least a positive sign that they’re already in his ear, but they’re not alone. The Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres, and the Chicago White Sox are in on the 29-year old according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) also mentioned the Cincinnati Reds were expected to ramp up their offer.
Stirring the pot even more, KSTP-TV’s Darren Wolfson reported that the Twins could sign Wheeler right now for a five-year deal worth $84 million.
As much as Twins fans would love to see them go out and spend a ridiculous amount of money to sign Strasburg and Cole, the odds are slim that either of them will make their way to Minnesota. That means the Twins will have to live in the second tier and with Odorizzi already back in the mix, they’ll need to find a couple of ways to differentiate from last year’s rotation.
Next. Projecting the Twins' 2020 opening day lineup. dark
Wheeler would be a great start to a rotation overhaul as he has the stuff to be a number two starter with Berrios at the top of the Twins rotation. While he doesn’t have the stuff to be an ace, he’s a pitcher that the Twins staff can try to tweak and with a previous track record of success, he could be a not-so-sneaky good signing that can make Minnesota a better team than it was a year ago.