Minnesota Twins: Predicting the Twins starting rotation for 2020
Examining the current rotation
The Twins’ pitching staff this season received an average score of C+ from Puckett’s Pond earlier in the offseason, and they mostly deserved it. Outside of All-Star performances from Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi, the team didn’t even earn that grade. Four out of the five Starters (Berrios, Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, and Martin Perez) were extremely good in the first half, but those same four starters were very disappointing in the back half of the season. Berrios will be back, but the question is who else will be?
The Twins will likely attempt to bring back at least two or three of their starters from last year, but Martin Perez not coming back is the only sure thing. Perez’s inability to stop throwing his struggling cutter sunk his season after a hot start. Michael Pineda likely won’t be back as well despite a good second half, as his PED suspension may have upset management. He was very good towards the end, which makes this a tougher call.
Odorizzi presents the easiest decision for the Twins to make. He was easily the best pitcher for the team throughout the year, and was an All-Star for the first time in his career. The Twins liked him enough to trade for him, so his positive showing makes even more reason for the team to go get him back in the offseason. If his pricetag is within reason, the Twins will likely re-sign him.
The toughest call for the team will be Gibson. Gibson has been a member of the Twins for seven seasons now and the team loves him. Year after year, Gibson offers up decent pitching with his best season coming in 2018 when Gibson had a 3.62 ERA and 179 strikeouts.
This year was different in that Gibson had several injuries that really sapped his strength. Even though he did OK analytically, his numbers and performance didn’t look good. I like Gibson, and the Twins do as well, and it’s more than likely that they offer him the league minimum or a minor-league deal with a roster invite to give him one more chance to make it in the rotation.
Prediction: Odorizzi makes it back to join Berrios, while Pineda and Perez aren’t brought back. Gibson signs a one-year deal but doesn’t end up in the rotation.
Who could step up for the Twins?
The Twins have a couple of options outside of the four listed above. Randy Dobnak was the team’s starter in Game 2 of the ALDS and Devin Smeltzer pitched well in his starts and long relief appearances. While both pitchers may not be considered frontline starters, each has a shot to help the Twins fill out their rotation.
For the minors, the Twins’ system is one of the better ones in the league according to Baseball America, and they have several hot pitching prospects that are rotation bound within the next three to four years.
Brusdar Graterol got some seasoning as a reliever in 2019 but looks to be a frontline starter going forward, and the duo of Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran look to be future studs as well. Can any of them impact the Minnesota Twins next year?
In short answer? No. Graterol needs to head back to the minors to get more work as a starter, so he won’t be ready. Balazoic and Duran are both 21 and need a lot more work in the minors barring a miraculous jump forward. Graterol might make the jump as a second-half spot starter if he stays healthy and everything breaks right. The three starters will make an impact at some point, it just won’t be this year.
Prediction: Dobnak and Smeltzer compete for a rotation spot, and Graterol makes an impact in the second half in some way, but the Twins don’t see Balazoic, Duran, or any other prospect making a huge impact in 2020.
Who could the Twins sign in free agency?
The Twins will once again have to go to free agency to fill out their rotation. While some fans have dreams of Gerrit Cole in a Twins uniform, the team will not have the cash available to sign him the contract he will end up earning. That being said, the Twins will be able to go out and get pretty much anyone else as they have plenty of money, a strong lineup, and a pitcher-friendly park. The team surprisingly has a lot to offer.
The Twins will look to add at least one left-hander, similar to how they brought in Perez. Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Kuechel are the top southpaws available and the Twins will go after them to fill the role of top-two starter. Bumgarner and Kuechel are definitely going to be targets (Ryu is a little older and doesn’t fit the Twins window as well), and the team could also take looks at Cole Hamels, Alex Wood, or Wade Miley as well.
For right-handers, the market includes Cole, Zack Wheeler, Rick Porcello, and Stephen Strasburg if he chooses to opt-out of his contract. The Twins will attempt to be in on Cole and Strasburg as they look for impact pitching. If they fail to land either of those two, they’ll surely grab a decent guy from the bargain bin like Porcello or Wheeler to shore up the rotation.
Prediction: The Twins make a big splash and sign Bumgarner, then turn around and make a smaller splash with Wheeler to give them a solid upgrade.
The final projection
The Twins can build a rotation out of the many arms that are available this offseason. The team is set on pulling together a good roster to truly compete after winning over 100 games and falling short in the playoffs. The main key for this year’s offseason is bringing in starting pitching, and the team is looking to do just that.
The final rotation will likely include two to three guys from this year. Berrios will return as the ace, taking the ball on opening day as he usually does. Odorizzi has already said that he likes it here, and the Twins will work with the 29-year-old to get a deal done. With the team making a couple of splashy signings like Bumgarner and Wheeler, both only 30, the Twins will have set up a rotation that can make things interesting in the next few years.
This leaves one slot remaining, and the competition (likely one that will be resolved in Spring Training) for the fifth and final starter. Based on what was said earlier the three options would be Dobnak, Gibson, and Smeltzer. Gibson would give it his best, but the last spot would end up going to Dobnak, meaning Smeltzer and Gibson are either relievers or sent down.
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