Minnesota Twins: Predicting the Twins starting rotation for 2020

As the Minnesota Twins head into the offseason with four spots open in the rotation, it’s time to take a look at who might start for the Twins in 2020.

The Minnesota Twins’ rotation, once considered a strength, fell apart in the back half of the 2019 season, with one starter being suspended and two more completely losing their ability to pitch throughout the last two months. The rotation looked terrible against the New York Yankees, and teams can’t win in the playoffs without solid starting pitching. Just ask the Yankees. Or the Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays, or Houston Astros.

Jose Berrios is the only starter locked in for next year, so that means the team needs to put starters behind (or if they’re lucky, in front of) their current ace. The Twins must also decide if any of their in-house options are ready for a bigger role, if they want to bring in outside help, or if they want to bring back even just part of the rotation.

The Minnesota Twins have a rare chance to rebuild their rotation from nothing. They can choose to bring back most of last year’s group or go into a very top-heavy group of starting pitchers. We’ll dive into the possibilities of what will happen to the Twins starters and who they could try to pick up, or even call up.

Who could step up for the Twins?

The Twins have a couple of options outside of the four listed above. Randy Dobnak was the team’s starter in Game 2 of the ALDS and Devin Smeltzer pitched well in his starts and long relief appearances. While both pitchers may not be considered frontline starters, each has a shot to help the Twins fill out their rotation.

For the minors, the Twins’ system is one of the better ones in the league according to Baseball America, and they have several hot pitching prospects that are rotation bound within the next three to four years.

Brusdar Graterol got some seasoning as a reliever in 2019 but looks to be a frontline starter going forward, and the duo of Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran look to be future studs as well. Can any of them impact the Minnesota Twins next year?

In short answer? No. Graterol needs to head back to the minors to get more work as a starter, so he won’t be ready. Balazoic and Duran are both 21 and need a lot more work in the minors barring a miraculous jump forward. Graterol might make the jump as a second-half spot starter if he stays healthy and everything breaks right. The three starters will make an impact at some point, it just won’t be this year.

Prediction: Dobnak and Smeltzer compete for a rotation spot, and Graterol makes an impact in the second half in some way, but the Twins don’t see Balazoic, Duran, or any other prospect making a huge impact in 2020.

Who could the Twins sign in free agency?

The Twins will once again have to go to free agency to fill out their rotation. While some fans have dreams of Gerrit Cole in a Twins uniform, the team will not have the cash available to sign him the contract he will end up earning. That being said, the Twins will be able to go out and get pretty much anyone else as they have plenty of money, a strong lineup, and a pitcher-friendly park. The team surprisingly has a lot to offer.

The Twins will look to add at least one left-hander, similar to how they brought in Perez. Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Kuechel are the top southpaws available and the Twins will go after them to fill the role of top-two starter.  Bumgarner and Kuechel are definitely going to be targets (Ryu is a little older and doesn’t fit the Twins window as well), and the team could also take looks at Cole Hamels, Alex Wood, or Wade Miley as well.

For right-handers, the market includes Cole, Zack Wheeler, Rick Porcello, and Stephen Strasburg if he chooses to opt-out of his contract. The Twins will attempt to be in on Cole and Strasburg as they look for impact pitching. If they fail to land either of those two, they’ll surely grab a decent guy from the bargain bin like Porcello or Wheeler to shore up the rotation.

Prediction: The Twins make a big splash and sign Bumgarner, then turn around and make a smaller splash with Wheeler to give them a solid upgrade.

The final projection

The Twins can build a rotation out of the many arms that are available this offseason. The team is set on pulling together a good roster to truly compete after winning over 100 games and falling short in the playoffs. The main key for this year’s offseason is bringing in starting pitching, and the team is looking to do just that.

The final rotation will likely include two to three guys from this year. Berrios will return as the ace, taking the ball on opening day as he usually does. Odorizzi has already said that he likes it here, and the Twins will work with the 29-year-old to get a deal done. With the team making a couple of splashy signings like Bumgarner and Wheeler, both only 30, the Twins will have set up a rotation that can make things interesting in the next few years.

This leaves one slot remaining, and the competition (likely one that will be resolved in Spring Training) for the fifth and final starter. Based on what was said earlier the three options would be Dobnak, Gibson, and Smeltzer. Gibson would give it his best, but the last spot would end up going to Dobnak, meaning Smeltzer and Gibson are either relievers or sent down.

Final Rotation Prediction:  #1 Jose Berrios, #2 Madison Bumgarner, #3 Jake Odorizzi, #4 Zach Wheeler, #5 Randy Dobnak