Why the Minnesota Twins should trade Eddie Rosario
The Minnesota Twins’ outfielder is one of the most popular players on the team, but with the need to upgrade the starting pitching staff, he could be dealt.
Although the Minnesota Twins came up well short of their goals during the postseason, the team must set their eyes on how to improve the “Bomba Squad” in 2020. While offense was certainly not a problem for the Twins as they racked up 101 wins and the American League Central Division title, Minnesota’s pitching staff fell apart shortly after the MLB trade deadline, which ultimately led to another first-round exit in the postseason.
With the total system failure that was the Twins’ rotation, the biggest key will be finding some arms to upgrade their starting staff. With four of the five starters slated to hit free agency, the Twins will have money to spend and will certainly add an arm or two (and maybe even three) in free agency. However, the Twins still need to find more quality arms than what is currently on the market.
That leaves open the option of trading for a starting pitcher, but the bigger question is for whom? One of the names mentioned recently has been outfielder Eddie Rosario, who is one of the more popular Twins on the roster, but also has his share of flaws that make him a perfect sell-high candidate.
So why should the Twins make this move? And why should Rosario be the fall guy in the Twins quest for starting pitching this winter? It all depends on what the Twins can offer a suitor and what they can get in return.
The reasoning to trade Rosario
On the surface, trading Eddie Rosario would be one of the most unpopular moves the Twins could do this offseason. The 28-year old is coming off a career season with the Twins and after smashing 32 home runs and recording his first 100+ RBI campaign, the thought of having Rosario in the middle of the Twins’ lineup for years to come is certainly enticing.
But if you dig deeper than the traditional stats, Rosario’s 2019 season was a strong one, but not one that may be sustainable for years to come.
While Rosario posted a respectable .276 average for the Twins this season, his on-base percentage was a meager .300, which ranked 49th among MLB outfielders and 21 points below the league-average mark of .321.
While he was able to make up for it by hitting the balls over the fence, his penchant for swinging at anything near the strike zone was a huge factor as Rosario chased pitches out of the zone at a whopping 46.3%, the fourth-highest rate among MLB hitters last season according to FanGraphs.
Those flaws showed up during the Twins’ latest postseason defeat to the Yankees and while he was able to hit several dramatic home runs since throwing on a Minnesota uniform, it throws a wrench in the Twins’ ability to string together multi-run innings.
Outside of the performance at the plate, Rosario is also due a hefty raise thanks to becoming arbitration-eligible. While this will get the “Pohlads are cheap” truthers going, it makes sense as Zone Coverage’s Brandon Warne estimated back in August that Rosario could make around $18-$20 million over his next two seasons of arbitration.
While it seems like Pohlad family would be just cutting pennies here, a trade should allow the team to use those funds elsewhere to sign the free-agent pitcher we all want to see the Twins sign or even some depth that would help lessen the blow of major injuries down the line.
Who are some potential trade targets?
Trading one of your most popular players is one thing, but who you can get in return is another factor the Twins need to consider. It would be perfectly understandable if Twins’ fans were gun shy after a pair of trades for pitching in winter’s past haven’t exactly turned out in their favor, but there are some options on the market that could pop up.
One of those options is Rangers’ Mike Minor, who was listed on MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince’s offseason trade candidates list last month. The Twins were apparently smitten on the idea of bringing Minor in prior to the trade deadline, but the cost of starting pitching (and possibly even dealing away a starting outfielder mid-pennant chase) could have shooed the Twins away.
Arizona’s Robbie Ray could also make sense for the Twins as the 28-year old doesn’t seem to be a part of the Diamondback’s long-term plans, but also would be risky for Minnesota with the 2017 All-Star ticketed for free agency after next season.
Warne also chimed in his early assessment of the Rosario trade market, listing Oakland’s Chris Bassitt, Atlanta’s Mike Foltynewicz, St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas or Colorado’s Jon Gray among others as the type of pitcher the Twins could get in return.
No, the Twins aren’t about to get Noah Syndergaard in return for Rosario. But, with so many holes in their starting rotation, even finding an adequate starter and having them coached up by Wes Johnson (considering the job he did with the Twins’ current rotation in 2019) could open up plenty of productive avenues for an upgrade.
How would the Twins replace Rosario?
The departure of Rosario would seem to leave a gaping hole in the lineup, but the Twins seem to be equipped to deal with it by sliding Marwin Gonzalez to the outfield and maybe even using Luis Arraez as more of a super-utility man (that is, if the Twins don’t plug him in at second base permanently).
While Gonzalez would be a nice addition to left field, the Twins may not have to use him there long thanks to their outfield depth in the minor leagues.
Leading the wave of prospects who could make it to Minnesota, Alex Kirilloff put together a solid season (.283/.343/.413, 9 HR, 43 RBI) at Double-A Pensacola, but had an even bigger year in 2018 hitting .348 with 20 HR and 101 RBI between Low-A Cedar Rapids and High-A Fort Myers that make people believe his bat could be ready for the major league level.
The Twins also have 2018 first-round pick Trevor Larnach skyrocketing through the system, as the outfielder hit .309 with 13 HR and 66 RBI between Fort Myers and Pensacola this season. Also don’t forget about Royce Lewis, who had a down year at the plate, but has been tried out in the outfield during his run in the Arizona Fall League.
These names may not impress some people, but it would give the Twins enough offense at the major league level and depth in the lower levels to withstand losing Rosario.
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Just as the Twins made the tough decision to deal A.J. Pierzynski to allow a budding prospect named Joe Mauer take over behind the plate in 2004, the decision to deal Rosario would not be popular, but it would be one that could help the Twins in the long run.