Minnesota Twins: 5 questions for the ALDS vs. the Yankees
The Minnesota Twins will try to “slay the dragon” as they face the New York Yankees in the ALDS, but what will help lead Minnesota to a postseason victory?
Back in the Minnesota Twins’ 2000s run of dominance, outfielder Torii Hunter was asked about the opponent that scared him the most. After thinking about it for a little bit Hunter brought up the name of Roger Clemens, who was one of his era’s most dominant pitchers.
“Every time I looked at the lineup when I was in Minnesota, and I’d think ‘Oh no, Roger Clemens again?'” Hunter told Doug Mead of Bleacher Report in 2011. “He was pretty much in my head. He threw his split-fingered to me all the time, never really threw his fastball, it was all splitters, so I was out.”
Hunter’s 0-for-28 mark against The Rocket definitely confirmed those comments, but while we won’t see a Hunter vs. Clemens matchup in this year’s American League Divisional Series between the Twins and the New York Yankees, the Yankees have assumed the same type of historical dominance.
The Yankees have bounced the Twins from the postseason five times since their last postseason series win in 2002 and in their MLB-record 13 game playoff losing streak, the Yankees have handed them 10 of their losses.
The names have changed, but that trend is enough to give Twins fans PTSD seeing their name in the same bracket as the Yankees to begin the postseason. The current group in Minnesota is looking to change history, however, and for that to happen, the Twins will have to answer several questions in their favor as the best-of-five game series begins on Friday night.
Are the Twins coming into this series healthy?
There’s a difference between being healthy and being at full strength. At this point of the season, very few players are going to be at full strength after 162 games, but for the Twins, their bigger question is if they can get several of their players at a functional level to have success against the Yankees.
The two biggest question marks heading into the series are Luis Arraez and Max Kepler. While we will know a little more by the time the ALDS roster is submitted on Friday morning, both players have been ramping up their activity throughout the week as they look to contribute to the first phase of the Twins postseason run.
As with any injury, both players will have questions coming back in the shortened time table. For Kepler, that means getting used to game speed after not having an at-bat since Sept. 14. In that game, Kepler didn’t look like himself and wasn’t generating the same velocity that helped him smash a career-high 36 home runs from the leadoff spot.
For Arraez, he’s been on the fast track after he avoided a much more severe fate in a collision with Willians Astudillo on Sept. 27. As he’s been working to return quickly, his range of motion could be a factor at second base or even in the outfield along with the ability to run the bases.
Mix in other players such as Ehire Adrianza (oblique) and C.J. Cron (thumb) who have been in and out of the lineup the past couple of weeks and the Twins are a little banged up. If these players are healthy enough to play to their level, it could be a huge advantage when trying to outslug the Yankees.
Can the Bomba Squad outslug the Bronx Bombers?
In the first round of the ALDS, we have a matchup that’s sure to attract some eyeballs. When it comes to sheer home run totals, the Twins and Yankees are about to put on slugfest that would be on par with Hulk Hogan and Andre The Giant.
In MLB history, no team has hit more home runs than the Twins and Yankees have in 2019. Minnesota was able to edge out New York for the single-season home run record with 308, but the Yankees were right there, swatting 307 home runs over the fence. Needless to say, both teams will be looking to add to that total over this series.
The question is, which team will have the better opportunity to do so? One thing the Twins have going for them is depth. The Twins were the first team in MLB history to have eight players with 20 or more home runs in a season and with multiple threats in their lineup, they could be able to go toe-for-toe if this series turns out to be a Home Run Derby.
For the Yankees, they’re continuing to get some of that power back as Aaron Judge played roughly half the season and Giancarlo Stanton recently returned after missing most of the year with various injuries.
Both teams are dangerous and even with the cooler October weather, this series could come down to who can hit more balls out of the park.
Can the Twins slow down Gregorius?
The Yankees lineup has plenty of threats ranging from the dangerous duo of Judge and Stanton to up-and-comers like Luke Voit and Gleyber Torres (who actually led the Yankees in home runs in 2019 with 38). Even with a resurgent D.J. Lemahieu in the lineup, the Twins biggest worry may be containing Didi Gregorious.
All jokes about being named after the mother on Rugrats aside, the Yankees shortstop has put the Twins in a pickle every time he has crossed their path. Gregorius has a gaudy line against Minnesota in his career, hitting .345 with eight home runs and 36 RBI in 32 games.
More recently, Gregorius smashed a three-run homer off Ervin Santana in the 2017 AL Wild Card game and went 8-for-10 with a home run and 10 RBI during a three-game series at Target Field last July.
With a Ruthian OPS of 1.042 against the Twins, those numbers are a far cry from the .238/.276/.441 slash line he’s put up in 2019, meaning the Twins can contain him. If the Twins can figure out a way to keep Gregorius from doing damage, it could mean fewer opportunities for the Yankees to put up a crooked number when Judge and Stanton come to the plate.
Are the Twins rookies ready for the postseason?
In addition to Arraez, who may not be on the roster pending his ankle injury, the Twins will have two rookies that have enjoyed a fast track to major league status on their pitching staff this series. While Randy Dobnak is a lock, many also expect Brusdar Graterol to also make the roster.
With Dobnak, the Twins feel they have a starter that could give them five to six innings that can get them to their bullpen. The right-hander has been solid for the Twins, especially in his last six outings (five starts), holding opponents to a 2.21 ERA. While his BABIP of .236 suggests that regression is coming, his 0.56 ERA on the road could give the Twins lightning in a bottle to steal one in the Bronx.
As the game gets later, the Twins may place their fate on the right arm of Graterol. The 21-year old cemented his status as one of the top prospects in the organization despite a shoulder impingement that knocked out over two months of his season. Although the Twins see him as a starter, his fastball, which has reached as high as 104 MPH this season, was too enticing not to have him in the bullpen for the postseason run.
For both rookies (and Arraez if he makes the roster), the postseason will be a crucible they haven’t experienced. If they can make the most of the opportunity and not get ahead of themselves, they could be pivotal parts to a long postseason run.
Can the Twins finally “slay the dragon?”
While the Twins level of postseason futility is at historic levels, many of the Twins on the current roster have yet to experience the Yankee curse. In fact, in the Twins last postseason appearance in the AL Wild Card game, just seven players who played in that game remain on the Twins’ roster.
The rest of the postseason failures with New York have occurred with teams that are long gone as part of the Joe Mauer era of dominance in the 2000s. This means that this group of Twins has nothing to lose as they head to the Bronx for Game 1 on Friday night. Alas, this didn’t stop Twins president Dave St. Peter from opening the history books.
“We understand the history,” team president Dave St. Peter told SKOR North radio earlier this week, before the matchup became official Friday with Houston claiming the top seed. “That’s my history — it isn’t [manager] Rocco Baldelli’s history, it certainly isn’t [outfielder] Nelson Cruz’s history. So I think that’ll be overblown. Organizationally, I just say it’s time to slay the dragon, right?
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Who knows if St. Peter’s quotes will be dug up in the event of another Yankees victory, but if this team can pull it off, Twins fans are going to feel a lot better about things as they look for their first postseason victory since 2004 and series victory since 2002.