Minnesota Twins: Projecting the Twins’ ALDS roster

Infielders

Mitch Garver, Jason Castro, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Ehire Adrianza, Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz (DH), Luis Arraez (9)

One of the biggest decisions within the infield revolves around the health of their two utility players, Luis Arraez and Ehire Adrianza. Both players are recovering from injuries and with the threat of losing them for a potential American League Championship Series if they are removed from the roster, the Twins have to be careful if they choose to put one or both on the roster.

When it comes down to it, the question is who is the most likely to be ready for Game 1 on Friday. With the Twins possibly planning for a bullpen game for Game 4, they would love to keep 12 position players and go with 13 pitchers. That being said, the status of Arraez makes that a wild card.

Should Arraez be able to go, the Twins can use Gonzalez as a fourth outfielder and use both Adrianza, who is recovering from an oblique injury, and Arraez in the infield. The question will be whether Arraez has the full range of motion back after spraining his ankle just last weekend.

If Arraez is around 70-to-80 percent, I think he makes the roster. With his ankle as an uncertainty, odds are he will just be limited to playing in the infield.

Outfielders

Eddie Rosario, Jake Cave, Max Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez (4)

The outfield could take a couple of different forms depending on who is ready to go by the time the roster is submitted on Friday. In a direct sense, the availability of Kepler will go a long way in determining not just who is in the outfield, but what role they will take on.

Just like Arraez, Kepler’s role will be determined to how he responds in the next couple of days. Since he hasn’t had an at-bat since Sept. 14, the Twins need to see how he holds up when ramping up his activity. Speaking Monday, manager Rocco Baldelli said Kepler was progressing, but they would also know more in the coming days.

For this projection, we’ll assume the Twins at least try to keep Kepler on the roster because if he were to aggravate something in this series, the Twins would probably shut him down anyway. By having Kepler in the outfield, the Twins would likely keep Jake Cave while also having Gonzalez as a potential backup outfielder (assuming Arraez is healthy in the infield).

Everything continues to be up in the air, but with the positive news coming yesterday, we’ll assume that Kepler makes the cut.

Starters

Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Randy Dobnak (3)

Another interesting tidbit from Baldelli’s Tuesday press conference is that the Twins will not reveal their Game 1 starter until right before game time on Friday. While we won’t know who will be starting for the Twins until we see them warming up, we do know that the Twins have three options that they’ll rely on.

Berrios was solid through the first couple months of the season but had tailed off in the final two months of the season. Regardless, Berrios had been making a revival in the last month as he turned in five quality starts in his last six outings.

Odorizzi follows up as the other All-Star in the Twins rotation and might be the most consistent pitcher heading into the postseason. While he won’t get past the sixth inning in most starts, he’ll at least give the Twins a good shot to get to their bullpen, which has been much better in the second half of the season.

The final option is Dobnak, who could be a starter or be a key member of the bullpen. Dobnak’s rise from High-A Fort Myers at the beginning of the season to a potential postseason starter is almost legendary, but so are his road numbers as he’s posted a 0.56 ERA in 16 innings away from Target Field.

The Twins could also go in a different direction by using Martin Perez or even Kyle Gibson as an option to get two or three innings, but this trio will likely handle the bulk of innings for the Twins this postseason.

Bullpen

Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Zack Littell, Cody Stashak, Kyle Gibson, Brusdar Graterol, Devin Smeltzer (9)

There are a lot of the names you would expect in the bullpen, but the final three of Gibson, Graterol, and Smeltzer are the ones who would get the most buzz.

Gibson hasn’t been impressive since having stomach issues since June, but the Twins are likely going to throw him out there partially as a lifetime achievement award. Jokes aside, if Gibson can be an aggressive pitcher and throw strikes, he could be a solid piece out of the pen to handle the Yankees righty-heavy lineup.

The other name that will raise some eyebrows is Graterol. While he lacks the experience you want in a reliever during the postseason, he has the most upside out of any pitcher in this group. With an arsenal of pitches that routinely flirt with 100 MPH, that’s a weapon that Baldelli can use to get out of a jam if need be.

The final spot in the pen figures to be a left-hander and with Rogers locked in as the closer, the Twins must decide between Smeltzer, Perez and Lewis Thorpe. In this projection, Smeltzer gets the nod not because he has swing and miss stuff, but mainly because he’s pitched the best out of the three in September.

While facing Didi Gregorious or Brett Gardner in Yankee Stadium would be a pressure cooker, Smeltzer’s cool demeanor figures to be an advantage over his fellow left-handed counterparts.