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Minnesota Twins: Predicting an ALDS rotation for facing the New York Yankees

By Otto Johnson

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - AUGUST 26: Jose Berrios #17 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning of the game on August 26, 2018 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. All players across MLB will wear nicknames on their backs as well as colorful, non-traditional uniforms featuring alternate designs inspired by youth-league uniforms during Players Weekend. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - AUGUST 26: Jose Berrios #17 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning of the game on August 26, 2018 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. All players across MLB will wear nicknames on their backs as well as colorful, non-traditional uniforms featuring alternate designs inspired by youth-league uniforms during Players Weekend. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /
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BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 03: Randy Dobnak #68 of the Minnesota Twins walks to the dugout after pitching the the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on September 03, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 03: Randy Dobnak #68 of the Minnesota Twins walks to the dugout after pitching the the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on September 03, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Game 2: Randy Dobnak vs. James Paxton

Surprised? So is Dobnak, the Twins, the Yankees, and probably every single person who knows baseball is a sport. This spot should be Pineda, but with him out until next season, the Twins must turn elsewhere. Dobnak has been very solid with a 1.59 ERA and given the Twins five very good innings in each of his last three starts. Even as an opener, he’s been very solid, with three earned runs in 12 innings.

He’s never pitched against any of the Yankees but his road splits, which have seen him post a 0.56 ERA, make him a smart choice over Odorizzi in Yankee Stadium.

For the Yankees, the decision is easy. James Paxton has been the team’s ace all year, so if he doesn’t get Game 1, he’ll face Dobnak in Game 2. With 15 wins and a 3.73 ERA, he has been exactly what the Yankees were hoping for when he was brought over from the Mariners. His stats look very similar to Jake Odorizzi‘s with a rough July, but an excellent August and September.

He only gave up one run in his last start against the Twins before getting hurt, but Paxton has been pretty solid against the Twins overall. The Twins (C.J. Cron, Miguel Sano, and Marwin Gonzalez excluded) have a .167 BA in 66 AB against him (Cron, Sano, and Gonzalez have a .305 BA in 59 AB). If the Twins hit like Cron, Sano, and Gonzalez, then Paxton will be in trouble.

Dobnak has been very good throughout the past couple of months, but Paxton is a legitimate front of the line starter with the hot hand.

Advantage: Yankees

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