Minnesota Twins: Predicting an ALDS rotation for facing the New York Yankees

With the Minnesota Twins locking up the AL Central on Wednesday and the New York Yankees their playoff opponent, we take a look at the projected rotation for each team.

The Minnesota Twins won their first division title since 2010 last week, cementing their spot as the third seed in the American League playoffs. Winning the division guaranteed they will finish with their top season since 1970, but their reward is a date with the New York Yankees.

The Yankees won 102 games and, despite an incredible season, are locked in as the second seed in the AL due to the Houston Astros’ dominance. Still, they are a formidable opponent for the Twins and one that should draw up bad memories of their previous postseason meetings.

We live in the present however, and with both teams having their share of issues in the rotation, we’re going to take a look at the potential rotations for each team and how they stack up against each other heading into the five-game series, which begins on Friday night.

Game 2: Randy Dobnak vs. James Paxton

Surprised? So is Dobnak, the Twins, the Yankees, and probably every single person who knows baseball is a sport. This spot should be Pineda, but with him out until next season, the Twins must turn elsewhere. Dobnak has been very solid with a 1.59 ERA and given the Twins five very good innings in each of his last three starts. Even as an opener, he’s been very solid, with three earned runs in 12 innings.

He’s never pitched against any of the Yankees but his road splits, which have seen him post a 0.56 ERA, make him a smart choice over Odorizzi in Yankee Stadium.

For the Yankees, the decision is easy. James Paxton has been the team’s ace all year, so if he doesn’t get Game 1, he’ll face Dobnak in Game 2. With 15 wins and a 3.73 ERA, he has been exactly what the Yankees were hoping for when he was brought over from the Mariners. His stats look very similar to Jake Odorizzi‘s with a rough July, but an excellent August and September.

He only gave up one run in his last start against the Twins before getting hurt, but Paxton has been pretty solid against the Twins overall. The Twins (C.J. Cron, Miguel Sano, and Marwin Gonzalez excluded) have a .167 BA in 66 AB against him (Cron, Sano, and Gonzalez have a .305 BA in 59 AB). If the Twins hit like Cron, Sano, and Gonzalez, then Paxton will be in trouble.

Dobnak has been very good throughout the past couple of months, but Paxton is a legitimate front of the line starter with the hot hand.

Advantage: Yankees

Game 3: Jake Odorizzi vs. Masahiro Tanaka

With Berrios going in game one and Dobnak in Game 2, that makes Jake Odorizzi the obvious candidate in Game 3. Odorizzi has been dominant in every month outside of July (7.43 ERA). He has been a revelation for the team going in what could be his last year with the team. He’s won 15 games and has given up more than three runs twice since the All-Star Break. He will undoubtedly start in one of the first three games of the series.

Odorizzi has struggled against the Yankees over the last three years, going 2-4 and giving up a stunning 24 runs in those six starts. He has, however, been solid against current Yankees players, allowing only a .240 BA and striking out 53 in 246 AB. Minnesota is hopeful that the latter trends continue into the ALDS.

The Yankees staff was dealt a huge blow when Domingo German was announced as out for the rest of the season due to a domestic violence probe. This leaves the Yankees in a tough spot. J.A. Happ has been much better recently, but Masahiro Tanaka has been better all year and is pretty tough to hit when he’s on.

Tanaka is better in games in New York (8-3, 3.10 ERA) vs. on the road (3-5, 6.16 ERA), so he may go on night one or two, but with Severino and Paxton as way better options, he likely gets the ball in Minnesota.

Odorizzi was an All-Star for a reason and was very good at home. Tanaka has been off most of the year, so it isn’t tough to see the Twins taking this one.

Advantage: Twins

Games 4 & 5

If necessary, Games 4 and 5 will depend on the managers. Berrios will have full rest to go in Game 4, and it’s not crazy to think that the Twins go with Dobnak again in Game 5 if his playoff debut in Game 2 goes well. If their games don’t go as planned, the Twins could use an opener and have Odorizzi be a bulk reliever to try to grab a win.

Ideally, the Twins won’t need these games as they have a big disadvantage with only two really good starters. However, Rocco Baldelli has been a master with his bullpen and using openers all season. Whatever ends up happening, the Twins will have the best guy they can possibly have on the rubber.

The Yankees, on the other hand, will likely give Severino and Paxton the ball again, barring injury. Severino is a slight question mark, as he could be hurting, leading to Happ getting a start. Paxton has no such questions, as he has been healthy all season and has pitched well enough through the year to get two starts in this series. Tanaka could be used in a fifth game as a bulk reliever, but even that is unlikely.

The Yankees have one of the deepest bullpens in baseball and will use every arm if needed to try to beat the Twins powerful lineup. Aaron Boone may not be at Baldelli’s level as far as using his bullpen goes, but he has more talent to work with. The Yankees will likely lean heavily on those arms to get them through.

For the first time in a while, the Twins have an advantage when it comes to pitching. A rotation led by two All-Stars, a far more steady bullpen, and a smart manager make this hitters series slightly favorable to the Twins. Overall Advantage: Twins