Minnesota Twins: Projecting the Twins’ potential postseason rotation
With the struggles the Minnesota Twins have had in their starting rotation, what would a potential postseason rotation look like in October?
The Minnesota Twins’ starting rotation has been a key point of frustration for fans in the second half of the season. After a strong start by the starting five under the tutoledge of pitching coach Wes Johnson, things have fallen apart at the midway point, allowing the Cleveland Indians to jump back into the American League Central race.
While fans are still miffed that the Twins did nothing to upgrade their rotation, the show goes on. Manager Rocco Baldelli must find a way to fix what he has and utilize it in the best possible way to help the Twins pick up their first postseason victory since 2002.
It’s not a given that the Twins will reach the postseason, but with a 3 1/2 game lead in the AL Central, the entire month of September may feel like .a giant postseason series. So, what would a postseason rotation look like as the Twins head into the final month of the season?
In the bullpen: Martin Perez
During the course of the regular season, major league teams use a five-man rotation to get through. In a playoff series, each game has extreme importance, meaning that each team must find a way to get their best pitchers on the mound as much as possible. This means that someone on the back end of the rotation will be the odd man out.
If the postseason started today, that would be Martin Perez. The left-hander started the season as one of Johnson’s best reclamation projects starting the season with a 5-0 record with a 7-1 record and 2.95 ERA in his first 11 appearances (eight starts). Since Perez’s loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on May 30, the script has been flipped with Perez owning a 2-4 record and 5.67 ERA in 15 starts.
One of the key factors in his decline has been his reliance on his cutter, which has been thrown at a 31.7% clip. According to FanGraphs, that’s Perez’s second most used pitch. While he used it to perfection in the early portion of the season, FanGraph’s Dan Szymborski noted that a drop in velocity and movement has rendered the pitch useless.
The good news is that Perez has been better in his past three starts, allowing four earned runs in his past 17 innings, but the cratering of his game may leave him suited for the bullpen, where the Twins currently have just one left-hander in Taylor Rogers.
Starter No. 4: Jose Berrios
Is there a possibility that Jose Berrios turns it around and is higher on this list by October? Of course. Would the Twins throw him out there the way that he’s been pitching in August? Absolutely not.
It’s safe to assume that Berrios’ presence on the roster was one of the reasons why the Twins didn’t make a major trade at the deadline. However, the Twins ace has struggled in the month of August, posting an ERA of 8.44 in four starts.
One of the biggest storylines for the rest of the season will be to figure it out, but by projecting the rotation as we sit here now, the Twins would be reluctant to throw him on the mound in a pressure situation. In fact, if Berrios keeps pitching the way he has, there’s a slim chance that the Twins could decide to use him in case of an emergency in the bullpen.
That being said, Berrios probably has the most talent of anyone on the pitching staff and it would be in the Twins’ best interest if they can get him going again. His fastball lost velocity for a couple of starts, but climbed back up to 94 MPH in his last start against Detroit on Friday night.
Mix in that Berrios has looked like a dominant ace at times this season (think the early part of the year) and there’s still a chance Berrios can be counted on in October.
Starter No. 3: Kyle Gibson
Kyle Gibson has to be one of the most frustrating pitchers on the Twins roster. Long counted on to take another step forward, the 31-year old never seemed to become the pitcher that Twins fans expected when he was drafted two picks ahead of Mike Trout. As a result, his performance has been inconsistent.
Gibson’s overall stats (12-6, 4.49 ERA) aren’t going to blow anyone away, but they become more frustrating when you focus on his style on the mound. At times, it almost seems like Gibson is afraid to throw a strike and that’s led him to a 35.1% strike rate.
Although he currently has a career-low 2.8 walks per nine, his recent performance has suggested that he could regress to the mean after a career-high six walks against Cleveland on Aug. 8.
The biggest question with Gibson is not whether the Twins would put them in their postseason rotation, but more which version is going to show up. If he can be the pitcher that has gone deep into games, the Twins will be fine. If not, Minnesota could be in for a long night in October.
Starter No. 2: Jake Odorizzi
The Twins lone pitching selection to the All-Star game (Jose Berrios was named as a replacement later), Jake Odorizzi has exceeded most of the expectations the Twins had after an uneven 2018 season. Although he had a strong start, his recent form has been more like Twins fans had grown accustomed to with Odorizzi being inefficient but effective.
The one thing that will give Twins’ fans concern is Odorizzi’s performance in July. Last month, Odorizzi wasn’t himself (which may have had to do with a blister on his pitching hand) and compiled a 7.43 ERA and allowed a .290 average to opposing hitters. With the coup de grace being a nine-run performance in just four innings against the Yankees, fans may be reluctant to trust Odorizzi in a playoff series.
While Odorizzi has pitched better in the month of August, his previous start against the Chicago White Sox (5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, BB, 6 K) on Aug. 21 was more indicative of what the Twins can expect in October. The right-hander is more of a five-and-fly guy which could put a major onus on the Twins bullpen.
Starter No. 1: Michael Pineda
When the Twins signed Michael Pineda during the winter of 2017, nobody knew what to expect from the right-hander coming off his second lost season due to Tommy John Surgery. Knowing that he would have to spend the entire 2018 season rehabbing his injury, the Twins signed him to a two-year deal betting he would regain his form this season.
While Pineda hasn’t been dominant, he’s been one of the most effective players on the Twins’ staff recently. With a five-inning, one-run start against the White Sox on Tuesday night, Pineda is now 10-6 with a 4.16 ERA on the season giving the Twins efficiency and effectiveness.
Throwing Pineda on the mound in Game 1 isn’t exactly a dream scenario for Twins fans, but at this moment, it’s the best they have. In a perfect world, Jose Berrios would find his form and be the Twins top starter, but as we stand here now, it’s not a given.
Next. 5 Twins prospects that could make an impact in September. dark
Of course the Twins would have loved to have added an arm, but it didn’t happen. Now they must hope that this group of pitchers has enough to make a deep October run.