Minnesota Twins: Ranking the Twins’ potential targets at the trade deadline
The Minnesota Twins will be looking to be a factor at the MLB trade deadline. Puckett’s Pond has a list of targets that the Twins could be looking for as the July 31 deadline approaches.
The next couple of weeks figure to be busy for the Minnesota Twins. With the club perched atop the American League Central, the Twins will be in the race for a postseason spot for just the second time in the since 2010. With a team capable of putting up runs in bunches, Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey and General Manager Thad Levine know they need to make improvements if they want to win their first playoff series since 2002.
With the July 31 MLB trade deadline approaching, there already have been rumors swirling over who the Twins could acquire and what they may be giving up to get their hands on them. Names like Will Smith, Marcus Stroman, Madison Bumgarner and Kirby Yates have already been dropped and as teams switch from buyers to sellers, the number of available arms should grow ahead of the deadline.
As the trade deadline approaches, we here at Puckett’s Pond decided to put together a list of rankings to see which targets could help the Twins the most. Things such as control, cost and performance on the field go into these rankings and the Twins need on the mound outweighs what they could acquire at the plate. Without further ado, here’s a look at what the Twins should be gunning for as they inch closer to July 31.
10a. RP Edwin Diaz & 10b. SP Zack Wheeler (New York Mets)
Both Edwin Diaz and Zack Wheeler should be available at the trade deadline, but a quick look at their stats would make a lot of people wonder why. As part of a Mets team that has been a complete dumpster fire in 2019, both Diaz and Wheeler have underachieved and General Manager Brodie Van Wagenen has reached a breaking point that has included tossing chairs at coaching staff meetings.
Despite the turmoil that is surrounding them, the Mets seem to be willing to tweak their roster and get rid of some of their tradeable assets. On the current roster, there might not be a bigger candidate than Wheeler, who is a pending free agent at the end of the season. Wheeler’s record stands at 6-6 with a 4.69 ERA entering Tuesday’s start against the Twins at Target Field, but his reasonable cost (roughly $6 million according to Spotrac) has plenty of teams interested.
That might be because Wheeler seems to have earned a better fate with no drop in velocity (his fastball checks in at 97.1 MPH according to FanGraphs) and a 3.65 FIP. While he doesn’t have an inning of playoff experience, Wheeler could be a nice target for the Twins to shore up their rotation.
Another likely target from the Mets could be Diaz, who was acquired as part of a blockbuster that also netted New York Robinson Cano. After a 2018 campaign with the Seattle Mariners that saw him lead the league with 57 saves and a 1.96 ERA, Diaz has been a disaster with the Mets overall with a 5.35 ERA and 21 runs allowed in 35 1/3 innings.
Diaz isn’t an appealing target at first glance, but a deeper dive shows that he could do well if taken out of the Mets toxic environment. In his first 17 games of the year, the 25-year old was terrific, notching a 2.30 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a .203 average with a .639 OPS. The floodgates have opened up since then, with Diaz allowing 17 earned runs in his last 19 2/3 innings with hitters teeing off at a .337 clip with a .939 OPS.
Despite this, Diaz’s velocity has remained virtually the same according to FanGraphs and the Twins have already had success with reclamation projects in Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez this season. The heat of a pennant race isn’t a great time to take on such a task, but if the Twins are looking to buy low, this could be a great spot to do it.
9. RP Jake Diekman (Kansas City Royals)
Jake Diekman is another option that Twins fans will probably say “No way,” to when taking a glance at his overall stats. The Royals right-hander has 5.06 ERA this season and a 0.7 HR/9 rate would give even the biggest iron stomachs indigestion as we head into August and September. However, a deeper diver reveals that Diekman could be the power arm the Twins need.
In 37 1/3 innings this season, Diekmann has picked up 54 punchouts which equates to a 13.0 K/9 rate. In addition, his stuff has been low-key filthy as FanGraphs has him at a 16.4% swinging strike rate with a 45.8% chase rate. The issue here has been his control as he’s allowed a staggering 5.3 walks per nine innings this season, which is something the current stable of Twins pitchers could provide if they’re interested in that sort of thing.
In any event, the Twins are going to need a couple of relievers if they really want to fix the bullpen. Unless they go all in and get one of the top guys on this list, they could do worse by adding the swing-and-miss stuff of Diekman.
8. RP Shane Greene (Detroit Tigers)
Another in-division trade that the Twins may look to pull off comes from Detroit, where Shane Greene has been having a career year. The Tigers All-Star has put up video game numbers at the back end of the Detroit bullpen this year as he’s registered a 1.09 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .158 batting average this season.
Where Diekman gets it done by missing bats, Greene has done it by getting opposing batters to pound the ball into the turf. FanGraphs has Greene at a 53.4% ground ball percentage and that helps offset his 9.3 K/9 rate in 2019. To further help the cause, Greene’s walk rates of 2.7 per nine also trump someone like Diekman.
Greene probably is due for some regression in the second half of the season, but the Twins wouldn’t be looking for him to close. Greene also comes with the added bonus of an extra year of control, which means the rebuilding Tigers may be looking to get whatever they can for the 30-year old. Greene isn’t a shutdown reliever, but he has enough to be an upgrade.
7. SP Matthew Boyd (Detroit TIgers)
For a rebuilding team like the Tigers, getting rid of their top starting pitcher doesn’t make sense. When the pitcher is 28 and the team seems years away from being a legitimate contender, however, this may be a good time to see what you can get.
Boyd has been having a career year for the Tigers with a 6-7 record and a career-low 3.95 ERA. While his numbers don’t scream difference-maker yet, he has shown some traits that could indicate there is room for growth such as his 6.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio that leads the American League.
While the left-hander is at an advanced age, his biggest value to the Twins could be his contractual situation. After 2019, Boyd still has three years of control and won’t become a free agent until after the 2022 season. That could inflate the Tigers asking price, but if the Twins like what they see, they may be willing to pay up for a player who isn’t a rental.
With the Twins having Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda as pending free-agents next winter, acquiring Boyd could not only be a play to bolster the rotation now but for the future.
5. RP Kirby Yates (San Diego Padres)
We will excuse you if you haven’t heard the name of Kirby Yates, but he’s become one of the best closers in the game for a San Diego team that has made a living off finding valuable bullpen arms off the street. After bouncing around between Tampa Bay, New York and Los Angeles during the early portion of his career, Yates seems to have found a home with the Padres and has turned it into his first All-Star appearance.
The 32-year old has posted a career-low 1.10 ERA this season and has racked up an MLB-leading 30 saves to go with it. Yates also has powerful stuff that has helped him obtain a 14.0 K/9 rate this season despite a fastball that only checks in around the mid-to-low 90s.
Like Boyd, Yates’ biggest attraction is his control as he won’t hit the free-agent market until after next season. Because of that, the Padres aren’t inclined to move him and with a roster that is more advanced than what Detroit has, San Diego General Manager A.J. Preller has already mentioned that it would take “an overwhelming offer” to pry the right-hander away.
4. RP Ken Giles (Toronto Blue Jays)
Perhaps news of Giles’ injury woes should put him lower on this list, but when he’s on the field, he’s one of the best relievers in the game right now. In 31 innings this season, Giles has been dominant, picking up 13 saves for the Blue Jays and registering a career-low 1.45 ERA. For a team that likes to see its relievers strike guys out, Giles has also fit the bill with 15.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
The drawback here is that Giles has run into some issues with his elbow as of late. Giles originally spent some time on the injured list in June with elbow inflammation, but only missed the standard 10 days before going back on the mound. Then, he irritated a nerve in the same elbow getting a message over the All-Star break.
For a team like the Twins that is willing to shell out some of its future to help the 2019 version of this club, they’re going to want assurance that the elbow is stable. If it’s not, a potential package deal could fall through and open up the possibility of picking up another Toronto arm that’s available.
3. SP Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants)
On name recognition alone, Bumgarner could be the top option for the Twins. He has plenty of playoff experience with three World Series championships to his name and has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball during this decade. While adding the Giants’ ace would be appealing on paper, the reality is he might not be the Bumgarner that people think of.
In 2019, Bumgarner has been an average pitcher. His 3.86 ERA would be the highest of his career and he hasn’t made an All-Star team since the 2016 season. Mix in a penchant for giving up home runs (his career HR/9 rate is 0.9) and it may seem like the cost just isn’t worth the investment.
If the Twins want to glean some hope from a potential Bumgarner trade, they can look at what the Houston Astros did with Justin Verlander. Just as it seemed like Verlander was on the decline, he was acquired from the Tigers and immediately found himself under the guidance of the Houston coaching staff going 32-13 with a 2.55 ERA in 2+ seasons.
It’s far-fetched to believe that Bumgarner would have the same impact with the Twins, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Pitching coach Wes Anderson has already coaxed a career year out of Odorizzi and his work with Pineda and Perez has also been a part of Minnesota’s success this season. Bumgarner will be a costly rental but could be an asset for the Twins.
2. SP Marcus Stroman (Toronto Blue Jays)
Along with Ken Giles, the Twins are interested in making Marcus Stroman a part of a potential package deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. With playoff experience, a strong season and control beyond 2019, he blends enough short term and long term gains for the Twins to be interested over the likes of Bumgarner.
Stroman’s 5-10 record doesn’t inspire confidence, but a lot of that hasn’t been his fault. The 28-year old has put together a 3.25 ERA this season and instead of relying on strikeouts (he has 88 in 110 2/3 innings this season), he uses a sinker that pitches to contact and earns a 57.9% ground ball ratio.
The pitch to contact aspect of Stroman’s game is going to give Twins flashbacks of Yankee Stadium failures in the 2000s, but a key difference is that Stroman’s sinker is actually good. FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards points out that Stroman’s sinker actually has movement that keeps it out of the zone, which makes the right-hander so coveted as the trade deadline approaches.
With another year of control and an affordable $7.4 million salary, Stroman has enough to help the Twins this year and down the road.
1. RP Will Smith (San Francisco Giants)
If the Twins want the best arm available on the market, they would have to go west to find it in San Francisco’s Will Smith. The Giants closer has been dominant over the past two seasons after missing 2017 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Since then, Smith has collected 37 saves for the Giants, but his other numbers have been off the charts.
In his 90 1/3 innings since returning from injury, Smith has racked up 125 strikeouts while issuing 23 walks earning a 2.39 ERA. Break those numbers down to this season and Smith has seen increases in strikeouts per nine innings (13.0), strikeout-to-walk ratio (6.75) and has lowered his ERA to 2.17. The added bonus is that hitters have hit just .219 against Smith this year and have registered a .506 OPS.
Next. Mock trade negotiation with Around the Foghorn. dark
This performance has Joel Reuter of Around the Foghorn comparing Smith to the 2016 performance of Aroldis Chapman. That thought process will mean that acquiring the left-hander would be expensive (The Yankees would get Gleyber Torres and Billy McKinney in the deal), but a combination of Taylor Rogers and Smith at the end of games would definitely put an end to the Twins’ bullpen woes.