Minnesota Twins: 5 bold predictions for the second half of the 2019 season

The Twins bullpen will look very different by August 1

If there’s one area that fans have been freaking out about during this recent stretch, it has been the performance of the bullpen. Taylor Rogers has become one of the best relievers in baseball, but outside of that arms such as Tyler Duffey, Trevor May and Blake Parker just aren’t going to get it done as the games become more important.

In past years, the Twins have been reluctant to mortgage their future in order to achieve a short-term goal (such as winning the team’s first playoff series since 2002), but this year Minnesota has the depth at the major and minor league levels to make a deal happen.

As the Twins have enjoyed their All-Star break, they have already been linked to several relievers in an effort to shore up their biggest weakness. A package deal with the Toronto Blue Jays with Ken Giles involved has reportedly been discussed and the possibility of landing All-Star closer Will Smith from the San Francisco Giants is also something the Twins could pull off.

Even outside of those two names, the Twins could look elsewhere acquiring San Diego’s Kirby Yates or even going back to San Francisco to get Tony Watson as a bridge to Rogers.

This doesn’t even include former closer Cody Allen, who is looking to refine his form after a disastrous stint with the Los Angeles Angels to start the year. If he can find himself, it would be another addition to the pen that could prove to be an upgrade.

Maybe this is unbridled optimism on my part, but it seems like the Twins are focused on making sure this team is in the best position to succeed. To do that, they’ll have to fix their leaky bullpen.

Sano will figure things out at the plate

Another point of contention for Twins fans has been the performance of Miguel Sano during the first half of the season. Returning from the injured list in mid-May, the former All-Star has left a lot to be desired hitting just .236 on the season and striking out 64 times in 148 at-bats. To make things worse, it doesn’t seem like Sano is picking up the ball, which also has curbed his effectiveness and placed him in early holes.

So why do I think there’s some optimism for Sano in the second half? Because he’s basically stuck in April mode.

Sano spent most of the offseason attempting to get in shape after a disastrous 2018 campaign and looked good in winter ball before injuring himself during the team championship celebration. That injury prevented him from even swinging a bat through spring training and left him without facing live pitching until he began a rehab assignment in mid-April.

With a rush to get him back to the major leagues, Sano struggled in the first couple of months, but has also matched his home run total (13) from all of 2018. The 26-year old also carries a .896 OPS through the first month and a half of action and once he gets his timing down, a lot more of those check swings should turn into even more solid contact.

You can jump off the Sano bandwagon if you want, but I believe there is a good chance he has a major rebound.

The Twins will break the record for most HR in a season

I’m not sure if this is really a bold prediction, as home runs have been flying at such a rate that even the pitchers are starting to believe that MLB is conspiring against them. Even Rob Manfred is juicing the balls to make baseball fun again, the Twins have no complaints as they lead all of baseball with 166 homers at the break.

There are a lot of reasons why the Twins wouldn’t keep up this pace (as they have no remaining games with the Baltimore Orioles), but there’s also a lot of reasons why they might break the single-season home run record set by the Yankees last year (267).

As of right now, the Twins have 10 players that have hit double-digit home runs this season. When Byron Buxton hits his next, that number will rise to 11. Although C.J. Cron‘s thumb injury could linger into the second half, the Twins have a pair of potential 40 HR guys in Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz is going to flirt with hitting 30 HR by the end of the season.

If the pleasant surprises in the lineup (Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco) keep hitting and some others (Sano) pick it up, there’s no reason to think that the Twins can’t hit 102 bombs in the second half and make some history in the process.

The Twins starting rotation will take a step back

While the pop at the plate has been the biggest surprise for the Twins this season, so has the success of their starting rotation. While Jose Berrios has been in All-Star form all season long, Jake Odorizzi also earned his first All-Star appearance while Michael Pineda, Martin Perez and Kyle Gibson have all been serviceable.

But while a lot of the focus has been on the bullpen in recent weeks, the starting rotation has begun to take a step back as well. With the starting five not going as deeply into games, the bullpen has been exposed and the Twins haven’t played as well as they did in April. This makes the starting rotation more of a factor as we go down the stretch.

This could all just be a bit of pessimism creeping in, but Perez hasn’t been the pitcher he was at the beginning of the year and although Pineda has pitched well since returning from knee tendinitis, he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2016, which makes one wonder if he’ll break down in the second half. Then, there’s Gibson, who could be Good Kyle and Bad Kyle in the same start.

If pitching coach Wes Johnson can continue getting the most out of his staff, then the step back won’t be a big one. If he can’t, the starting rotation could become a major issue as the Twins close out the AL Central.

The Twins will win their first playoff series since 2002

The Twins do need to win the American League Central first and with Cleveland within striking distance heading into the break, that’s something that could be easier said than done. But after a stretch with playoff contenders Cleveland, New York and Oakland, the Twins will be feasting primarily against division opponents whom they have gone 19-11 against this season.

At the same time, the Indians will have series against the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Rays in August along with 13 more games with the Twins. If Minnesota can take care of their own business in those games, they should be able to win their first division title since 2010.

This leaves the other elephant in the room, where the Twins haven’t won a playoff series since 2002 and a playoff game since 2004. In order to accomplish that, the Twins will likely run into either the Astros or Yankees and possibly even a wild card team (Dare we say, Cleveland?) that could give them a run for their money.

All things considered, this Twins team has the talent offensively and if they can make a couple of additions on the mound, this could be a dangerous team in October. Time will tell if that’s the case, but the Twins are capable of making a deep playoff run or the first time in 18 years.