Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays series preview
The Minnesota Twins took three-of-four games from the Rays in St. Petersburg, but with both teams coming in struggling, who will get the upper hand?
The bad news is that the Minnesota Twins are coming off their worst week of the season. The good news? The Twins still had a 3-4 record despite not having their top game and still sit atop the American League Central by a healthy margin. Although there are plenty of negative vibes surrounding the team, they still have the best record in the American League as well at 50-27.
After splitting with the Kansas City Royals last weekend, the Twins will come home to face another top American League team that has struggled lately in the Tampa Bay Rays. The three-game series will not only give the Twins a chance to get back on track, but do so against a team that is in the thick of the American League playoff race.
It will not be an easy task for the Twins to dominate the Rays like they did in St. Petersberg, as they’ll have the services of Tommy Pham and Avasail Garcia after they missed the final three games of that series due to injury. However, the Twins should have the services of Byron Buxton and a better turn through the rotation should give them an excellent chance to take down the Rays and return to their norm in 2019.
About the Rays
The Rays have been a surprising team throughout the past two seasons, as they continue to dump talent but keep winning in spite of it. Coming into this three-game set, the Rays stand at 45-33 and are 4 1/2 games behind the New York Yankees in the competitive American League East. Tampa Bay also leads the American League Wild Card, holding the top spot by 2 1/2 games over the Cleveland Indians.
Despite their current standing, the Rays come into Target Field reeling as they plow through a stretch of 34 games in 34 days. Tampa Bay’s play has faded during that stretch as they’ve gone 4-9 in their past 13 games and their offensive production has dropped down to 3.7 runs per game during that stretch.
The Tampa Bay Times’ Eduardo A. Encina also noted that the starters ERA has increased during the 34-game stretch as they’ve registered a 5.21 ERA and the bullpen has logged 92 2/3 innings. While he mentions that the Rays’ opener strategy has contributed to that, there may be fatigue setting in on the Rays.
Despite any fatigue, the Rays still have several players to keep an eye on. Austin Meadows has cooled off after a fast start, but is still hitting .304 with 12 HR and 41 RBI and Brandon Lowe is having a breakout season with a .282 average to go with 15 HR and 46 RBI.
The Rays are still a dangerous team that, at their best, can put runs on the board with the best of them, but if the Twins can neutralize their power, they could take advantage during this series.
About the Twins
Things aren’t feeling too great after the Twins endured their first losing week of the season, but they still are in great shape in the American League Central and own the best record in the American League. Still, with the paranoia that the wheels are going to fall off at any moment, last week didn’t do much to console the fears of their fan base.
One of the biggest reasons for last week’s struggle was a rough turn through the starting rotation. With the exception of two dominant starts by Jose Berrios, the Twins couldn’t get much going as Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez all struggled on the mound.
The struggles also continued at the plate as the Twins couldn’t come through in the clutch. An especially concerning development was the struggles of Miguel Sano, who has struck out 29 times in his last 55 at-bats dating back to June 4.
The good news is there may be something to pinpoint the Twins recent issues at the plate. Minnesota had a rash of injuries last week and should be healthier once Byron Buxton returns to the lineup. The Twins also seem to be making strong contact, which means that things should progress back to the mean in the near future.
Much like the Rays, the Twins received an off day at the perfect time to recharge the batteries and clear their heads. Minnesota’s struggles have been bad, but they could be worse, like the seven-game losing streak the Houston Astros snapped on Sunday. If they can get right, they should be the dominant team they’ve been all season.
Tuesday: Blake Snell (4-6, 4.40 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (7-4, 4.18 ERA)
Gibson is starting to develop a reputation of having Good Kyle and Bad Kyle in his aresenal. When Good Kyle shows up, Gibson is aggressive in the strike zone and usually makes the offense adapt to him. When Bad Kyle shows up, Gibson can’t find the strike zone and tends to nibble when he does get ahead. Last time out, Bad Kyle was in rare form, allowing six runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Boston Red Sox. The Rays lineup is powerful, so Gibson will need to be on his game.
Meanwhile, Blake Snell has struggled in defense of his American League Cy Young Award from 2018. Much like Gibson, Snell has also ran hot and cold this season, with his last start seeing him cough up six runs in 1/3 innings against the New York Yankees. Snell has the talent to be dominant, but he just hasn’t shown it enough in 2019.
Wednesday: Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.31 ERA) vs. Jake Odorizzi (10-3, 2.58 ERA)
The second game of the series will have a pitcher’s duel between two pitchers that had success against their opponent the last time they saw them. Odorizzi is coming off a tough start allowing four runs in four innings against the Kansas City Royals, but was dominant in a June 2 start against the Rays. If he can match the form where he threw six shutout innings while striking out nine batters, Odorizzi can get back on track after allowing four earned runs in each of his past two starts.
If there has been one constant in the Rays rotation, it has been Charlie Morton. Last time out, Morton shut down the Oakland Athletics, allowing one run over 6 1/3 innings. His last time against the Twins, he held the Bomba Squad to two runs over seven innings while striking out six batters. Even with the Rays’ recent struggles on the mound, it should be fun to watch Morton and Odorizzi go at it.
Thursday: TBD vs. Martin Perez (7-3, 4.28 ERA)
The final start will likely involve an opener on Tampa Bay’s side, but will provide another opportunity for Perez to find his early season form. The numbers since Perez’s 5-0 start continue to become more damning with each start as he has failed to get past the fifth inning in six of his past eight starts. The left-hander has also compiled a 5.75 ERA during that stretch and appears to be getting worse.
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In any event, the Twins will need a strong bounce back effort from their starters to take down the Rays. If they’re able to get great starting pitching, it will go a long way to getting back to their winning ways.