Minnesota Twins: What to watch for vs. the Boston Red Sox

The Minnesota Twins open up a three-game series with the Boston Red Sox on Monday night as the two teams play a role reversal from prior years.

When the Minnesota Twins have taken on the Boston Red Sox over the past couple of years, the series has represented a litmus test of how well the Twins can stack up with one of baseball’s elite teams. With the Red Sox coming off another World Series title last fall, there is a case that this week’s three-game series at Target Field falls into that category.

However, things have changed since the last time these two teams saw each other at Fenway Park in July of 2018. When the Twins were visiting Boston, they were in the midst of a complete overhaul of the roster that saw fan (and clubhouse) favorites Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier get shipped out before the trade deadline. As the Twins took the opener, the Red Sox proceeded to take the next three games leading the Twins further into irrelevance.

This year, it’s the Twins who have their eyes set on a potential October run. Minnesota enters this series with the best winning percentage in baseball (.671) and a 10-game lead in the American League Central. Meanwhile, Boston has scuffled in their title defense, entering Monday’s opener at 39-34 on the strength of a five-game winning streak.

Even though the Red Sox are at the high water mark of their 2019 season, they haven’t been the same team that they were a year ago. With the Twins taking their place as one of baseball’s elite teams for now, this series represents a chance for Minnesota to make a statement.

Who is the real AL contender?

As mentioned in the first slide, this series has a surreal feel to it. While the Twins would definitely like to make a statement by taking at least two-of-three from the Red Sox, it’s Boston who feels like they have a chance to make a statement of their own by knocking off the Twins.

Coming into this series, the Red Sox have struggled against teams over .500 posting a 12-20 record against such opponents. Among those games, they have registered a -28 run differential against current playoff teams New York, Tampa Bay and Houston and will be looking to show that their current five-game winning streak (which has included a three-game sweep of the 21-50 Baltimore Orioles) is a sign of things to come.

“I think a lot of people see that as important, playing against those guys,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora told MassLive and other reporters on Sunday. “I feel like we played well (vs. the top teams). We just didn’t get the clutch hit. It’s a hit there, a hit there, a pitch here. So we’re not caught up on that. We’ve just got to go there and play well.”

The Twins will undoubtedly be thinking the same thing as they’ll look to squash any momentum that Boston has coming into this series. To do that, they’ll have to play some better baseball than they did this past weekend where they took two-of-three games from the Kansas City Royals, but showed cracks in their bullpen and defense.

With the Twins entering Monday at 13-12 against teams above .500, this is a chance to show they’re a true team to fear in the summer months and possibly that the Red Sox are not the same team they were a year ago.

Probable Pitchers

With the Red Sox not dealing with the opener trend sweeping Major League Baseball, we actually know who will be on the mound for all three games of this series. With that are a couple of big names while others look to be on the rebound.

Monday: Rick Porcello (4-6, 4.69 ERA) vs. Jose Berrios (8-2, 3.01 ERA)

The Twins will throw their ace Jose Berrios on the mound to open the series and while his overall numbers look good, we might not have seen the dominant pitcher he can be this season. A lot of that could be recency bias as he gave up nine runs in a 10 1/3 inning stretch in May and his last start was a high-wire act before settling down and allowing just a Dan Vogelbach home run in the 9-6 loss to the Mariners on June 12.

Meanwhile, Porcello has been steadily improving since allowing 16 total runs (11 earned) in his first two starts of the season. His last time out, Porcello allowed just two runs on five hits against a potent Texas Rangers lineup that ranks just behind the Twins in runs per game this season. As someone who relies on the sinker ball, Porcello will have to keep the ball low to keep the Twins in the yard.

Tuesday: David Price (4-2, 3.52 ERA) vs. Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.04 ERA)

Michael Pineda has been a high-wire act of his own this season, but is starting to round back into form after his last start against the Mariners on May 17. While he allowed just one run to Seattle in 5 2/3 innings, the more encouraging development has been increased velocity on his fastball and, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription required), a slider that continues to get better with each start.

For the Red Sox, David Price got shelled last time out against the Rangers allowing six runs in 1 2/3 innings. While Price should be well rested, it’s presumable that he should be a better version of himself against the Twins. In the previous six starts, Price had allowed a 1.80 ERA while going 3-0 on the mound.

Wednesday: Rodriguez (7-4, 4.67 ERA) vs. Gibson (7-3, 3.70 ERA)

Gibson put together his best start of the season in Friday’s win over Kansas City, throwing eight shutout innings to pave the way for Garver’s dramatic home run. Normally known for his tendency to nibble at hitters once getting them down 0-2, Gibson has been more aggressive lately, racking up 26 strikeouts in his last 25 innings. A 2.16 ERA has also paired nicely during that stretch.

Rodriguez has been all over the place this year, but as with many Red Sox, it appears he’s starting to find some consistency on the mound. In his last start, the left-hander threw seven innings of one-run ball against the Orioles on June 14 and has a 3-1 record and 2.96 ERA in his past four starts.

The Twins can win this series if…

The Twins need to play cleaner baseball then they have over the past week if they want to get past the Red Sox. Although they’ve been beating up on inferior teams, the Red Sox are slowly improving and have the weapons to make a charge toward the top of the American League East if everybody gets right in the next couple of months.

The Twins challenge will be to not let the Red Sox use them as a springboard to that run. While the Red Sox are searching for good mojo heading into Target Field, the Twins already have it as one of the best teams in baseball. Rocco Baldelli has done a great job of making sure his team doesn’t get too high or two low and after a disappointing series finale against the Royals, they should be ready to go against Boston.

The key for the Twins will be to clean up some of the minor deficiencies that have cost them a couple games on the home stand. If Minnesota can play up to their potential, taking two-of-three from Boston is not out of the question.