A recent history of Twins’ First-Round Picks
The Minnesota Twins are following the lead of most teams by using the draft to build a contender. How have the Twins fared in the first round in the past five years?
The Minnesota Twins are enjoying one of their best seasons this decade and after rolling out to the best record in baseball, they have several pieces of homegrown talent to thank for it. That coming of age tale is similar to what the rest of Major League Baseball has done, opting to build their teams through the MLB Draft rather than shell out big bucks in free agency.
As it stands today, the Twins patience has been rewarded as first-round pick Byron Buxton is enjoying a breakout year while prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff are also making an impact in the lower levels of the system.
With president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine going into their third draft, it’s interesting to see what the Twins have done to continue to build from within and how these players can continue to make an impact as they head toward the major league level.
To do that, we’ll look at the past five years of Twins first-rounders (including compensation round picks) to see if there has been a shift in philosophy and how those players can help Minnesota moving forward.
2013: P Kohl Stewart (4th Overall)
Coming into the 2013 MLB Draft, the Twins were desperate for some pitching help. While Minnesota would have loved to land a top college arm such as Mark Appel (Houston) and Jon Gray, they were taken off the board in the first three picks along with Kris Bryant.
With the Twins on the clock, they selected Kohl Stewart, who was deemed arguably the best prep arm in the draft. With a fastball that was clocked as high as 96 MPH and a hard breaking ball to go with it according to Perfect Game USA. Stewart had ace potential written all over him and the Twins had an easy path for him to grab that title upon his arrival in the system.
Things got off to a good start for Stewart as he made his way to Double-A Chattanooga to make 16 starts (9-6, 3.03 ERA) in the second half of the 2016 season. From there, things went downhill as he mysteriously lost the velocity on his fastball and teams started having more success. As a result, his ERA ballooned to 4.28 in 2017 and 4.47 in 2018.
Stewart has made an appearance on the Twins roster since, debuting late last season registering a 4.25 ERA in six starts for Minnesota so far. Those are definitely not the ace numbers the Twins expected when investing a high draft pick and stings more in a class that includes standouts Clint Frazier, Austin Meadows and Tim Anderson.
2014: SS Nick Gordon (5th Overall)
In the 2014 MLB Draft, the Twins focused more on their lineup, adding another prep star to their system. Nick Gordon wound up coming off the board after notables Carlos Rodon and Kyle Schwarber as a potential five-tool player that was one of the best defensive prospects in the class. The only question about the son of former big league pitcher Tom Gordon and brother Dee Gordon, would be his offense.
Since being drafted, Gordon has put together a solid minor league career ranking as high as 53rd on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects in 2016 and ranking 93rd in this year’s edition. Gordon has shown flashes of potential at the plate including a .270/.341/.408 line with nine home runs and 66 RBI with Double-A Chattanooga in 2017, but hasn’t been able to put it together on a consistent basis to crack the Twins’ major league roster.
In 2019, Gordon’s status with the team seems to be in flux. Although he’s having his best season at the plate at Triple-A Rochester (.317/.348/.508, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 3 SB), he suddenly has plenty of competition as Jorge Polanco has broken out at the major league level and fellow prospects Royce Lewis and Wander Javier has also started to make noise.
It’s possible that Gordon could make an appearance with the Twins in the near future, but it’s just as likely the 23-year old could be dangled for reinforcements in the coming months.
2015: P Tyler Jay (6th Overall)
Picking in the top-ten once again, this would be one of the picks that would spell the end of the Terry Ryan era in Minnesota. On the lookout for more pitching, the Twins decided to go back to the college ranks to get Tyler Jay, who many thought would be on a fast track to the major leagues as either a starter or a reliever.
At the beginning of his minor league career, Jay was serviceable, even posting a 3.33 ERA between High-A Fort Myers and Double-A Chattanooga in 2016. Like Stewart, he too began to see a decline in velocity and it eventually was found out to be thoracic outlet syndrome, which also spelled the end of Phil Hughes‘ tenure with the Twins.
Jay hasn’t been spectacular for the Twins as he’s battled back from his injury and was even exposed for the Rule 5 draft last winter. To make matters worse, the following pick was Andrew Benintendi, who has become a crucial part of the Boston Red Sox and could make the current Twins outfield even better.
There’s still time for Jay to make an appearance or two in Minnesota, but at 25 years old, it’s likely that he has reached his athletic pick and projects more as a middle-of-the-road reliever.
2016: 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff (15th Overall)
This would be the final pick of the Terry Ryan era, as he would send in his resignation a couple weeks after the conclusion of the draft. That being said, Ryan went out with a bang drafting Alex Kirilloff, who looks like a long-term contributor for the Twins success.
The outlook didn’t look so rosy a couple years ago, however, as Kirilloff’s career began needing Tommy John surgery. After missing the entire 2017 season, he began to take it out on opposing pitchers in 2018, posting a .348/.392/.578 line with 20 home runs and 101 RBI between Low-A Cedar Rapids and High-A Fort Myers.
As he’s continued to rise through the Twins system, he’s become one of the organization’s top prospects, ranking 15th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list this season. Kirilloff’s numbers have hit a bit of a snag thanks to a wrist injury that has forced him to miss some time, but he recently has picked things back up and appears to be another cornerstone of the Twins lineup.
2017: SS Royce Lewis (1st Overall)
Coming off the 2016 “Total System Failure,” the Twins found themselves in the fortunate situation of owning the top overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft. While many across the nation wanted the team to select prep phenom Hunter Greene, the Twins decided to take prep shortstop Royce Lewis, which left many Twins fans up in arms (more on this on the next slide).
Nearly two years later, Lewis is proving that the Twins made the right decision. Lewis raked between Low-A Cedar Rapids and High-A Fort Myers last season (.292, 14 HR, 74 RBI, 28 SB) in 2018 and came into this season ranked ninth on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list.
Lewis has gotten off to a slower start with Double-A Pensacola in 2019, but it may not be anything that a couple of push-ups can’t fix. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds selected Hunter Greene with the second pick overall and after a solid start, the team recently announced that he would be undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Lewis and Greene might be compared for the next decade, but it’s a real possibility that both teams got a great player with their selection, which is a deal that the Twins will take every time.
2017: OF Brent Rooker (35th Overall)
Part of the reason the Twins fans were so upset with the Lewis pick was that the main rationale was to save money. Aside from the stigma that the Pohlad family was pocketing that cash, the Twins were trying to pull a page out of the Astros playbook from 2012. In that draft, Houston selected Carlos Correa over Byron Buxton with the first overall pick and used that money to pay over slot to land Lance McCullers with the 41st overall pick.
In this case, the Twins used their cash to pay Brent Rooker, who was previously drafted by the Twins in the 38th round of the 2016 draft, but opted to not sign and play baseball at Mississippi State. After hitting .387 with 23 HR for the Bulldogs, the Twins decided to try again and signed the now 24-year old.
Rooker has already shown his enticing power, crushing 46 home runs in two-plus seasons in the Twins system. While the Twins outfield is currently crowded, Rooker seems to be pounding on the door to get in sometime between now and the end of the 2020 season.
2018: OF Trevor Larnach (15th Overall)
In their most recent first round selection, the Twins once again went to the collegiate ranks. Instead of choosing a pitcher, Minnesota took outfielder Trevor Larnach, who garnered the nation’s attention with a scorching hot streak that helped Oregon State win the College World Series.
As noted previously on Puckett’s Pond by Martin Schlegel, Larnach was somewhat of a late bloomer in Corvallis, as his home run total jumped from three in his sophomore season to 17 in his junior season. While his power isn’t fueled by superb strength, he simply is a solid hitter that goes with the pitch and therefore hits for a high average.
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So far in his Twins career, Larnach has hit .304 while climbing his way to High-A Fort Myers and while he only has nine home runs, keep in mind that he has yet to play a full year in professional baseball. As he begins to fill out his frame, he should develop into a steady hitter and be a strong piece at the top of the Twins’ order.