Why the Minnesota Twins are not a fluke (and could win 100 games)
The Minnesota Twins own the best record in baseball, but instead of waiting for the bottom to fall out, the Twins could be on their way to a 100-win season.
The Minnesota Twins have gotten off to a fantastic start to the 2019 season. Despite falling in the series opener to the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday, the Twins own the best record in baseball at 36-17, which has given them a 10-game lead in the American League Central division.
In order to get out to their hot start, the Twins have been able to win games in a variety of ways as manager Rocco Baldelli has pushed all the correct buttons when he’s needed to. The lineup currently leads Major League Baseball in scoring including a league-leading 105 home runs and the pitching staff also sits with a 3.70 ERA that ranked fifth in the majors entering Monday.
All of this has instilled optimism into a fan base that packed Target Field for the largest crowd since 2016 during Sunday’s victory over the Chicago White Sox. While all of this is surreal, the Twins fan base can’t help but have the same mentality as other teams that get off to a white-hot start.
“When will the bottom drop out?”
The Twins definitely have the look of a Cinderella team throughout the first two months of the season, but the MLB schedule always has had the mantra of a marathon instead of a sprint. With over 100 games to go, it’s nearly impossible to tell if the Twins will make a deep run into October, but there are several factors that could push them in the right direction.
The Twins finally have an established lineup
Over the past couple of seasons, the Twins have been a team that has been waiting on its future. As fans drooled over the potential of Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton as they arrived in Minneapolis, many have waited to see what this lineup would look like once they hit their stride at the major league level.
Before this season, that answer provided inconsistent results. In the train wreck that was the 2016 season, the Twins ranked 10th in runs per game as they waited for several young pieces to gain traction. In 2017, Minnesota rebounded to put up 5.03 runs per game and made the postseason, but slumped back down to 4.56 runs per game in 2018 .
This year, the Twins have seen a lot of the players they have been waiting on come of age. Buxton is currently enjoying the best season of his career leading MLB in doubles and surrounding pieces such as Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco have found a more consistent approach at the plate.
Even the Twins additions have come through as waiver pickup C.J. Cron has added a power element at first base the team hasn’t seen since Justin Morneau and Jonathan Schoop has been a more consistent addition over former Twins mainstay Brian Dozier.
As the season moves along, this lineup should get better as Nelson Cruz returns from a wrist injury and Sano rounds back into form after his delayed start to the season. The Twins may not hit 300 home runs this season, but the run production isn’t going anywhere.
The Twins pitching staff should only get better
The one area which may be the biggest concern for Twins fans is the pitching staff. Still scarred by Rick Anderson‘s “pitch to contact” philosophies, the Twins stigma of getting standing ovations for completing five innings is starting to go away and with a strong offense supporting them, the team has breathed easier.
Jose Berrios is starting to become a bona fide ace with a 7-2 record and a 3.20 ERA. Kyle Gibson has battled after a slow start thanks to offseason food poisoning to provide a steady second starter while Martin Perez and Michael Pineda have both been surprising additions and Jake Odorizzi has thrived under the tutelage of new pitching coach Wes Johnson.
Even the bullpen, which has not operated with a traditional closer role in the first two months of the season, has been a pleasant surprise for the Twins. Taylor Rogers and Blake Parker have been strong at the end of games and Trevor May has been steady despite some recent struggles.
All in all, the Twins currently rank third in the American League with a 3.70 ERA. There’s a good chance that the unit could hit a slump at some point in the season, but they seem to have figured out a way to get the most out of what they have, which is something that should continue moving forward.
Reinforcements could be on the way
There are a couple misconceptions about how a team should buy a buyer or seller midway through the year. In past years, many teams have opted to wait until the July 31 trade deadline to pick up a piece that could help them down the stretch. Others have waited even later to the now defunct Aug. 31 waiver deadline, but the question is why wait when the Twins could add reinforcements right now?
As the Twins are looking more like a playoff contender, there are several options that could help them improve their pitching staff. The most notable has been free agent closer Craig Kimbrel, who could see more action once teams don’t have to give up a compensation pick to acquire him at the conclusion of the MLB Draft on June 5.
If the Twins want to go in a different direction, they could search the trade market which could include names such as Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman or Aaron Sanchez. While this would acquire the Twins to part with some of their assets, the system is currently deep enough to make a bold move for a team of this caliber.
Either way, now could be the time to be aggressive and make a good team a great team sooner rather than later.
The Twins have 62 games against the AL Central
In the 2000s, the Twins feasted off their weak counterparts in the American League Central. With many of their opponents either rebuilding or failing to compete with the Twins, Minnesota rattled off six division championships from 2002 to 2010 on the strength of beating up their lesser opponents.
As the Twins are in contention this season, they’re a much different team than they were during that simply because they can hang with anyone (as evidenced by taking the season series four games to three against the Houston Astros). Nonetheless, the Twins still have 62 games remaining against a division in which they already own a 10-game lead.
Cleveland has the pitching to contend, but they can’t seem to get right thanks to an offense that ranks 14th in the American League with 3.81 runs per game. Chicago has some pieces, but isn’t quite ready to contend while Kansas City and Detroit are in full rebuild mode.
After their sweep of the White Sox this past weekend, the Twins own an 11-3 record against the American League Central. With so many games against their weak division coming up, it’s not only possible that the Twins can keep this going, they could be a team on the verge of a 100-win season.