Minnesota Twins: 4 potential trade fits for OF Max Kepler
Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler continues to come up in trade discussions. Here are four potential trade fits for the lefty.
The Minnesota Twins have for the past two offseasons been actively pursuing trades in an attempt to try and upgrade the roster. This offseason we are yet to see them pull off any significant trade even if there are several that have been bounced around.
Last offseason the Twins added Jake Odorizzi in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays that quite honestly still looks like an absolute steal. In a more minor move, the Twins acquired Jake Cave which to this point looks like another solid offseason trade.
A name that keeps coming up in trade possibilities is outfielder Max Kepler. Last offseason the big hope was that the Twins would land a different Rays pitcher in Chris Archer. All the rumors continue to point us to the fact that Kepler would have been at the center of that deal and that the Rays thought highly of Kepler.
Whether they are truly bonafied rumors, or just a bunch of us baseball geeks (me included) sitting around and looking for ways the Twins can improve, Kepler’s name continues to come up in trade scenarios. He is the definition of a buy low type player as he has all the tools in a row, but outside of a few flashes hasn’t been able to put the total package together.
One thing Kepler has put together is proof that he is a very good defensive outfielder. He is especially good when the Twins are able to play him in right field. Last season he proved he is also able to hold down center field. In 2018 as a center fielder Kepler recorded a +3 DRS, 2.3 UZR, and 8.1 UZR/150. Then when in right field he recorded a +7 DRS, 8.5 UZR, and 12.2 UZR/150.
What has been the big question mark is what will Kepler be as a hitter. He did top 20 home runs for the first time in his career in 2018. The consistency just hasn’t been there as he slashed .224/.319/.408. Even with all those question marks when it comes to Kepler’s bat he still had a 2.6 fWAR and a 2.8 bWAR.
All that said it seems the Twins are still high on who Kepler can develop into as an everyday outfielder. The thing is other teams could feel the same way and if the Twins want to acquire an impact player trading Kepler may be one of the best ways to do so at this point in the offseason. Here are some teams that could be interested in acquiring Kepler.
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have been linked to several outfielders throughout this offseason. Which makes all the sense in the world as they have watched Nick Markakis hit free agency after a great 2018 season where he hit .297/.366/.440, .806 OPS, 14 home runs and 43 doubles.
That leaves the Braves with rookie phenom Ronald Acuna and Ender Inciarte who is a solid center fielder in his own right as two of their starting outfielders. As the Braves look loaded up and ready to be serious contenders in the National League they could really solidify things with a third solid outfielder. Enter Max Kepler.
The Braves have a near embarrassment of riches when it comes to pitching talent which the Twins could be interested in as they try to fill some spots on their immediate and long term pitching staffs. As far as established major league arms the Braves could look to offer up the likes of Julio Teheran and Sean Newcomb.
The Braves also have guys waiting in the minors like Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard and Kyle Wright who could all be intriguing for the Twins and are knocking on the doors of the majors. I have continued to be a fan of the Twins pursuing Teheran, but Newcomb and Fried have also shown a pretty good track record of success in major league innings and would be the next two I would target.
The Twins-Braves fit has been something that has just made too much sense for a while. While the packages could take many different shapes it seems like a match made in heaven.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks have seen their starting center fielder A.J. Pollock hit free agency. That leaves the Diamondbacks with the trio of David Peralta, Steven Souza Jr., and Jarrod Dyson. Peralta is an outfielder worth building around as he hit .293/.352/.516 with 30 home runs in 2018.
Souza and Dyson could certainly be improved upon if the Diamondbacks feel they have any shot at all to compete in the near future. Souza was once a prospect with all the promise in the world but only saw action in 72 games due to injury and hit .220/.309/.369 this past season. As a 4th infielder Dyson only hit .189/.282/.257.
The big trade chip for the Diamondback would be starting pitcher Zack Greinke. The obvious hurdle the Twins would need to get over is that they are reportedly on Greinke’s no-trade list. Exploring Greinke is still certainly worth it even with his big over $30 million AAV contract as he would quickly slot in right next to Jose Berrios in the rotation. Berrios and maybe Kyle Gibson are the only starters who can even stand close to Greinke’s 207.2 innings, 3.21 ERA, and 8.6 K/9 from 2018 in the Twins current rotation.
Another player worth having a conversation about is fellow starter Robbie Ray who is reportedly available. Ray would be under team control through 2020 in his final years of arbitration. The Diamondbacks don’t have quite the same wide range of players like the Braves to strike a deal with the Twins, but still, two strong candidates to start having trade package conversations around.
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants have been linked to outfielders, especially corner outfielders, all offseason. Now while there have been no links of a Giants-Twins trade pairing if the Twins do shop Kepler it would make sense for him to land with the Giants.
The Giants don’t necessarily have the frontline type starter that the Twins would ideally need if they were to deal Kepler. Madison Bumgarner seems very much available this offseason. The fact that Bumgarner only has one year left on his deal makes that a hard deal to advocate for. Especially because it would be very hard to see the Giants adding an additional controllable piece into a deal for the starter.
A player that at the beginning of the offseason certainly made sense for the Twins is Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford. He is signed through 2021 and will be paid $15 million in each of those seasons. The signing of Jonathan Schoop does now make this fit a little awkward.
With the bar as low as it is to qualify as a good offensive shortstop Crawford’s .254/.325/.394 and .719 OPS would give the Twins a good offensive shortstop. Defensively he has always seemed like a solid defender. Defensive metrics to have a bit of a mixed story on him with DRS being friendly to him at +6. Traditionally UZR measures have liked him to but this past season was a down year as he went negative in UZR (-0.9) AND UZR/150 (-0.8).
So while the fit isn’t fully there, it could be an instance of a acquire a good player and figure out the playing time later.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays at first glance may not be in desperate need for an outfielder like Max Kepler. With rumors swirling all over about players available via trade off of the Blue Jays roster it makes sense for the Twins to at least see what could maybe happen.
If the Blue Jays did become successful in trading away long tenured center fielder Kevin Pillar that would only make a Twins-Blue Jays swap make that much more sense. The Blue Jays have a few players that would be of interest to the Twins.
Most notably is Marcus Stroman who is under team control for two more seasons. 2018 wasn’t a great season for Stroman who struggled with injury and was only able to be on the mound for 102.1 innings and had a less than impressive 5.54 ERA. The positive is that he did have a 3.91 FIP which suggests he did pitch much better than his ERA suggests. That 3.91 FIP is also much more on par with how he has performed in previous seasons.
Aaron Sanchez is another starter that the Twins could covet on the Blue Jays roster who also seems available this offseason. Sanchez also has two years of control left but would be a clear step down from Stroman in quality. Sanchez did have his incredible 2016 All-Star season in which he logged 192.0 innings and had a 3.00 ERA as well as 161/63 K/BB. What is concerning is in limited innings over the past two seasons Sanchez has had an ERA over 4.00 and a FIP even higher.
Next. How the Twins and Mets match up as trade partners. dark
Clearly, none of these are complete deals, but is there one that you prefer over the others? Any fits that we missed? Let us know in the comments!