Minnesota Twins GM Simulation: Free agents to fill out the roster
The Minnesota Twins have lots of moves they can make this offseason, here are the results of the moves I made in an offseason simulation.
As the Minnesota Twins filled out their coaching staff Friday, we here at FanSided wrapped up our offseason GM simulation. As you may have already read, as the acting Twins GM in the simulation I kicked the simulation off with a trade that sent OF Eddie Rosario and RHP Andrew Cabezas to Atlanta for RHP Julio Teheran, LHP Kolby Allard, and RP Shane Carle. Wednesday through Friday of this past week was spent trying to round out the roster with free agent additions.
The process had to obviously be altered since we don’t have access to each player and their agents or enough people to act as those players and agents. That means that each free agent contract was decided through an auction process. After a first bid was made, everyone had 24 hours to make their own bids before the auction closed and the free agent was awarded to or “signed” with a team.
This obviously creates an imperfect situation in deciding who a free agent signs with since in the real world there would be a little different negotiating and even leveraging that happens. Considering our overall manpower and time frame for the simulation it works out pretty well. Even though as you will see as I unfold what happened in the simulation there still are frustrations in the process.
Goals for Simulation and Free Agency
Since I was already able to help upgrade the starting rotation through the trade that brought Teheran to the Twins, the next two areas that I wanted to address were the bullpen and the infield. My goal was to walk away with two free agents in both areas.
With the bullpen, I wanted two strong back end of the bullpen arms who could even be considered closer material if needed. Thankfully this year’s free agent class boasts quite a few arms that meet that qualification so I had options.
With the infield, I wanted to be able to improve the defense and find an impact bat. Again, there are plenty of options to help accomplish both of those things in the infield. As I found out I wasn’t alone in upgrading the infield when it came to those thoughts and goals for the free agency portion of the simulation.
Fits and Failures to start
As I said, I wanted to upgrade the infield and I had two targets to start things off. I wanted to bring in SS Jose Iglesias and 2B/3B Jed Lowrie.
SS Jose Iglesias
Iglesias has spent time with the Detroit Tigers and represents a glove first shortstop who would give the Twins the flexibility to move Jorge Polanco to second base. Some defensive metrics give a bit of a mixed view of his defensive prowess, but Iglesias in 2018 ranked 3rd in UZR/150 with a 9.7 UZR/150. Defensive runs saved didn’t like Iglesias quite as much as he was 12th with 1 DRS.
Iglesias also produces pretty well at the plate for a defense first type player. In 2018 he slashed .269/.310/.389 and had 31 doubles and 15 stolen bases. His best season was 2015 when he slashed .300/.347/.370.
2B/3B Jed Lowrie
With Iglesias as part of the infield solution, I also wanted to walk away with a third baseman to start transitioning Miguel Sano to first base or designated hitter. Lowrie may be more thought of as a second baseman, but in the Twins lineup, I wanted him to play third most days and then be an impact bat that can be placed in the middle of the Twins lineup.
His defense is not great, but his bat should more than make up for that and Lowrie would be helped out by having Iglesias to his left while in the field. In 2018, Lowrie slashed .267/.353/.448 and a .801 OPS, 23 home runs and 37 doubles.
The Offers
As you can probably tell by the first heading on this section these free agent offers didn’t go well. I opened up bidding on Iglesias at 2 years, $13 million. There was no action on Iglesias for most of the 23 hour period until 12 minutes before the deadline when Iglesias was sniped from under me as I was unable to check back in on the progress. So the Angels ended up with him on a 2 year, $16 million deal.
I opened the Jed Lowrie bid at 2 years and $20 million. That was going pretty well until the Mariners came in with a contract of 3 years and $30 million. I considered topping the offer, but with the other infielders still on the board I thought I would take my chances elsewhere instead of offering more years or more money than I wanted to for a 34-year-old infielder.
My actual first target of the free agency period was neither Iglesias or Lowrie even though my inability to grab the two of them did set the tone for how the rest of the process would go. My top target was super utility man Marwin Gonzalez. With all the love given to Gonzalez going into the offseason I was afraid he would be very popular amongst a bunch of nerdy bloggers and he certainly was.
I was willing to open up the bidding for Gonzalez at 3 years and $21 million. The Mariners, White Sox, and Giants all got in on the bidding for Gonzalez with the Giants eventually landing him on a 5 year and $90 million deal. I would be shocked if in the real world Gonzalez gets a deal that hits a similar combination of length and/or $18 million AAV.
Bullpen
While the infield bidding got off to a rocky start, the other area I was trying to land some players for was the bullpen. So with all the guys available two targets rose to the top for me, David Robertson and Jeurys Familia.
RHP David Robertson
The 33-year-old David Robertson has been one of the better relievers in the American League for quite some time now. It already netted him a free agent contract with the Chicago White Sox several seasons ago, but he is still best known for being part of the bridge to the closer with the New York Yankees.
Robertson boasts a good curveball around 84 mph and a cutter which sits around 93 mph and a 87 mph slider. That arsenal of pitches has helped Robertson strike out batters at a rate north of 11 batters per nine innings in 2018 and even higher than that in seasons past. Not to mention it would be nice to not have to watch him shut down Twins lineups any longer.
In the simulation he is a Twin with a 3 year, $33 million contract.
RHP Jeurys Familia
While some may pause at some of Jeurys Familia’s past injuries and his suspension due to Domestic Violence it is clear Familia is an effective bullpen arm when he is on the mound. He made a name for himself closing games with the New York Mets and hit the 51 save mark in 2016. He has gotten there by employing an upper 90s sinker and fastball as well as a 88 mph slider.
In the simulation Familia is also a Twin with a 3 year, $30 million deal.
Both Robertson and Familia had other suitors and I was worried for a moment that what happened with Iglesias and Lowrie may happen again. Thankfully, I was able to breathe a sigh of relief when they were both awarded to the Twins.
Now back to trying to fill out that bare Twins infield
With the bullpen additions set, it is to plan B on the middle infield. The next player I chose to target is recent Colorado Rockies infielder DJ LeMahieu. LeMahieu was known for a long time as a light-hitting defensive second baseman. Then in 2015, LeMahieu broke out as an All-Star second baseman hitting .301/.358/.388. While his performance at the plate was a little down in 2018 his 18 DRS at second base made him an obvious backup plan.
Ultimately, I stopped offering him contracts when the price got to 3 years and $36 million. Looking back I wish I would have kept going on LeMahieu or Lowrie but instead, I began to pivot once again. Part of that pivot was to cover third base.
3B Mike Moustakas
Even with free agency not being real kind to Mike Moustakas last offseason, he still proves to be a quality third baseman. He just finished a good postseason run with the Milwaukee Brewers and maybe he could help do the same thing in the state on the other side of the Mississippi River. Since I am nervous about relying on Sano at this point for anything I want to prep to rely on him as little as possible going into 2019.
Moustakas put together a slash line of .251/.315/.459 good for a .329 wOBA in 2018. He also hit 28 home runs, making him a good candidate to fill the need for an impact bat in the middle of the Twins lineup. I ended up overpaying for Moustakas as I got in a bidding war with the Brewers, but after losing Iglesias, Lowrie, and LeMahieu I wasn’t giving up on Moose.
He became a Twin in this simulation on a 1 year, $16 million contract.
I should mention here that I also had extensive trade conversations about acquireing Jedd Gyorko from the St. Louis Cardinals and Jake Lamb from the Arizona Cardinals but neither of those materialized.
SS Freddy Galvis
After striking out on Iglesias, Lowrie and LeMahieu I still needed to get another infielder for 2019. I was past the deadline to make first bids on free agents or else I would have pursued Asdrubal Cabrera. This is a rule set so that no one can sneak in an unrealistic 1 year, $1 million deal on a player of higher quality than that. Since Cabrera wasn’t pursued at all I turned to Freddy Galvis.
Galvis fits much of the same mold as Iglesias just a tier down from him. Galvis is a career .248/.299/.380 hitter, so nothing spectacular there. His value comes in his defense where he finished 8th in the league with a 7 DRS. Although he is about the flip of Iglesias when it comes to defensive metrics as Galvis ranks much lower in UZR/150 at 19th and -3.8.
Galvis became a Twin with a 1 year, $5 million contract
That brings the simulation to an end so let’s see what the Twins roster looks like at the end of the simulation.
So after a trade and the addition of 4 players via free agency and $42 million added in payroll in addition to the $11 million for Teheran the Twins should still have wiggle room to add payroll after these moves.
Starting Lineup
1B Miguel Sano
2B Jorge Polanco
3B Mike Moustakas
SS Freddy Galvis
CF Byron Buxton
RF Max Kepler
DH Tyler Austin
The biggest potential need in the starting lineup that remains is left field. There are question marks about if we have seen the true Cave and no one wants to see Grossman patroling the outfield. That is where the payroll flexibility or even a call up of OF/1B Brent Rooker could help the Twins out. Also LaMonte Wade would be an option.
Bench
OF Cave/Grossman
I have settled on a three man bench at this point. If some of the new bullpen additions help solidify that area of the roster the Twins could add a fourth player to the bench.
Starting Rotation
RHP Jose Berrios
RHP Julio Teheran
RHP Kyle Gibson
RHP Jake Odorizzi
RHP Michael Pineda
It is pretty incredible what one solid addition does to the Twins roster. It does leave players like Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, and Zack Littell off the major league roster for now, but depth in pitching is a very good thing.
Bullpen
CL Jeurys Familia
RHP David Robertson
RHP Addison Reed
RHP Trevor May
LHP Taylor Rogers
LHP Gabriel Moya/Adalberto Mejia
RHP Shane Carle
Just as basketball has become position less, I am less concerned about how these relievers slot into roles I am just glad to have them in the bullpen. One of the strengths to acquiring Carle is that he has options remaining so he can be moved up and down if needed. I could see Romero slotting into a bullpen role as well this season. The big decision here is Mejia or Moya. I could see keeping Mejia as either an opener or just tandem starter with Odorizzi.
Next. Twins hire pitching coach Wes Johnson and other coaches. dark
There it is, your simulated 2019 Twins as assembled by Nate Palmer. Let me know what you think about the moves. Is there a player I didn’t go after or a trade you would have liked seen explored? Thanks for reading!