Minnesota Twins 2018 positional recap and 2019 predicitons, part 6: Outfield
Join us for part 6 of a series recapping the 2018 Minnesota Twins season position by position as we examine the past, present, and future of the outfield.
If you’ve missed any previous episode recapping the Minnesota Twins‘ season and predicting 2019, here are some links where you can get caught up with what we’ve already covered:
The outfield was one of the more stable places in the Twins’ lineup in 2018. Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jake Cave, and Robbie Grossman took care of the majority of the time in the outfield, with Byron Buxton, Ryan LaMarre, Johnny Field, and several others getting some time as well. With LaMarre and Field no longer with the team, we’ll focus in on the others.
2018 recap
Heading into the season, the Minnesota Twins’ outfield was pretty well set. Rosario would take left, Buxton would take center, and Kepler would take right. No surprises there. There was more room for debate over who should get time as backup. Robbie Grossman had experience and has played decently enough in the past, so he figured to get some time. Zack Granite hadn’t had a ton of success in his 40-game stint in 2017, but was an intriguing player to consider given his blazing speed and history of success in the minors. In the end, it was Grossman and Ryan LaMarre that earned spots on the active roster to start the season after Granite had a disappointing spring training that would set the tone for the rest of his year.
For a while, the grouping was set. Then, less than a month into the year, Buxton suffered the first of multiple injuries in 2018 after migraines forced him to miss enough time to warrant a DL stay. LaMarre took over as the primary center fielder, performing well to start the year with a .283/.340/.283 line through May.
Buxton returned to action on May 10th, lasting only until May 29th before returning to the DL thanks to a reoccurring issue with a fractured toe. It would wind up being the last time that Buxton would play in the MLB in 2018.
In a rehab stint in the minors in July, he had an injury to his hand, and later, his wrist, which lingered until late August. Then on August 1st, Buxton learned he would not be recalled for September, ending his season. In what was hoped to be a year where he could take some steps forward, it was another incredibly disappointing season for Buxton.
Meanwhile, LaMarre and Jake Cave split time in Buxton’s absence before LaMarre was claimed by the White Sox after being DFAed to make space for Jorge Polanco, opening the door for consistent playing time for Cave. He took advantage of this opportunity, playing solid baseball for the Minnesota Twins. Cave would end the year with a .265/.313/.471 triple slash along with 13 home runs in 91 games. He showed some incredible power as well, hitting some baseballs to places very few people have done before-
The three C’s: Cave Crushes to Catch. #MNTwins https://t.co/w8UDJMdIEc
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) August 19, 2018
The corner outfield positions, meanwhile, were much more stable. Eddie Rosario had a fantastic season in left, finishing with a line of .288/.323/.479 and 24 home runs in 138 games. Max Kepler was a mainstay in the outfield as well, appearing in 156 of the Minnesota Twins’ 162 games. Kepler played mainly right field, but also got some time in center.
By average, Kepler had a down year, hitting just .224. But his OBP of .319 was right on with his career averages, and he reached the 20-home run mark for the first time in his career after finishing with 17 in 2016 and 19 in 2017. Robbie Grossman played well in 2018 too, finishing the season with an OBP of .367, best on the team.
Looking forward
Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave, and Grossman are all under contract though 2019 and beyond, so the Minnesota Twins have a lot of options for the upcoming season. Eddie Rosario will return to left field, and a healthy Byron Buxton will get a fresh start at another year in center. Though he’s under performed thus far in his career, Buxton still has MVP-caliber talent, so the Twins will give him every opportunity to succeed. Max Kepler has been solid in his 3-year career, posting WARs of 2.2, 2.0, and 2.8, and as an all around solid player, will likely be the final starter in the outfield in 2019.
Jake Cave makes things a little bit interesting. He had a great start to his career and ultimately could develop enough to challenge one of the starters for an everyday role. He will likely start the year as the Twins’ main 4th outfielder and get fairly consistent playing time while giving the starters off days, potentially drawing starts at DH as well. Cave showed the Minnesota Twins a lot of potential, so the team is going to want to keep him in the lineup and let him continue to develop as much as possible.
While Robbie Grossman isn’t a great defender and doesn’t have much power, he’s been a solid hitter over his 3-year tenure with the Twins and could prove to create an interesting situation for the team. He’s entering his 2nd year of arbitration and likely would be looking for an increase in pay after earning $2 million last season.
He’s a solid guy to have around as he gets on base at a great rate, but he’s fairly one dimensional as a hitter and doesn’t bring as much to the table as other options the Twins have. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back with the team for another year, I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins try to trade him to another team for a meager return.
He simply doesn’t fit in to the long term picture and shouldn’t take away at bats from someone like Cave. While spending a few million on Grossman wouldn’t at all hurt the Twins, there’s also other ways the team could use that money given that they already have enough options in the outfield.
Zack Granite is worth mentioning here as well. He’s clearly on the outside looking in in terms of earning a spot on the active roster to start 2019, but he will be looking to put a disappointing, injury-plagued 2018 season behind him and get back to what has been a pretty successful track record in the minors. It’s hard to imagine him knocking off Cave as the 4th outfielder out of spring training, but Granite could get some time at some point in the upcoming season, particularly if someone goes down with an injury.
That’ll more than likely pretty much do it for the Minnesota Twins’ 2019 outfield. With 2 starters in Rosario and Kepler that’ll be good for a full season, another spot reserved for Buxton as we hope he’ll figure things out and become the perennial All Star he very well could be, and another slot reserved for Jake Cave, there’s no good reason for the Twins to look too hard at an outfielder in free agency. There’s a couple guys that could be interesting options, but our outfield is pretty well set already, so I doubt there will be any surprising news on that front.
Finally, we have to mention Alex Kirilloff. After missing all of 2017 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, he exploded back onto the scene, finishing 2018 with a .348/.392/.578 line along with 20 home runs and 101 RBI in 130 games, 65 with A level Cedar Rapids, and 65 with A+ level Fort Myers.
The fantastic season earned him rave reviews, and he is currently listed as the 10th best prospect in all of baseball according to MLB Pipeline’s rankings. While the future is very, very bright for him, it’s doubtful that he makes his MLB debut in 2019. The highest level he’s played at this far is A+, so he’ll likely start there to start the year and, if all goes well, earn an early promotion to AA after picking up where he left off.
It wouldn’t be impossible for him to earn a September call to the bigs, but it’s much more likely that he debuts at some point in 2020. If he continues to rake this year, the Minnesota Twins could have an interesting situation with 5 solid outfielders competing for 4 slots, but that would be a good problem to have. Regardless, the team will wait to cross that bridge when they come to it.
Matt’s predictions
The starting 3 outfielders are going to be pretty straightforward to start the season. Just like the past few years, Eddie Rosario will start in left, Byron Buxton will get center, and Max Kepler will take right. Assuming all will be healthy, there’s really no reason to expect anything else. Jake Cave has likely earned the 4th outfielder role thanks to his performance and high potential, and as previously mentioned, Cave could get some starts at DH as well.
The biggest question regarding the Minnesota Twins outfield in 2019, in my eyes, will be what happens to Robbie Grossman. He’s not too expensive, and I believe he does more for the Twins than a lot of fans realize, but at the same time, he’s far from a critical piece of our offense. The emergence of Jake Cave has made Grossman expendable. Ideally, I’d like to shop him in trade for as good of a prospect as the Twins can get. He wouldn’t get much, but something is better than nothing, and there’s not really any big reasons to hold onto Grossman much longer.
What I think will happen, however, is that Grossman will be back with the Twins for at least the start of 2019. His upside is pretty limited, but he also has a pretty high floor. As it stands now, the Twins have a lot of open space on the roster. That will likely change as free agents are signed throughout the offseason, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins break camp with both Grossman and Cave on the roster to start the year.
Where things might get a bit more interesting could be if Zack Granite plays well in the minors. If he does, I could see the team trading or even DFAing Grossman to make space for someone else. Then if an outfielder gets hurt, Granite could be called up for depth. Overall, though, there’s probably not a whole lot in question with the 2019 Minnesota Twins outfield.
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In summary
Other than a short, disappointing year for Byron Buxton, the Twins outfield was pretty stable. Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler played close to full seasons in the corners, and there Ryan LaMarre, Jake Cave, and Robbie Grossman were essentially the only other outfielders to see significant playing time.
Rosario had a fantastic season, while Kepler continued to plateau, albeit at an acceptable level of production. Jake Cave emerged as a potential gem and should get plenty of chances to make an impact in the lineup. There are a few different scenarios of what could happen to Grossman, but beyond that, the Twins’ outfield is pretty well set for 2019 and beyond.