Minnesota Twins 2018 positional recap and 2019 predictions, part 5- Third base
In the latest part of an ongoing series recapping the Minnesota Twins’ 2018 season, we wrap up the infield as we examine third base.
The Minnesota Twins are well into their offseason and we are well into our coverage of it. If you’ve missed any previous episodes of our position by position recap of the Minnesota Twins’ season, here are some links to help get you caught up-
Third base was a fairly unstable position for the Twins in 2018. In total, 8 players saw time at the position- Eduardo Escobar, Miguel Sano, Ehire Adrianza, Willians Astudillo, Gregorio Petit, Taylor Motter, Eddie Rosario, and Chris Gimenez. Escobar, Sano, and Adrianza received the vast majority of the playing time at 3B this year, so those three are who we’ll focus in on for the majority of this article. First up, let’s look back at the season-
2018 recap
2018 was supposed to be a “prove it” year for Miguel Sano. In 2015, he debuted and contributed right away, hitting .269 with 18 home runs in 80 games, only to follow up that performance with a .236 average with 25 home runs across 116 games in 2016. Then in 2017 he was effective once again, hitting .264 with 28 home runs in 114 games. Strikeouts had been an issue for Sano all along, but to some extent that was inevitable given the type of hitter Sano is. At any rate, many hoped that 2018 would bring in a full season of baseball to Sano (he had topped out at 116 games in a season previously in his career) where we would find out the type of player Sano is going to be, once and for all. There have been times where he’s looked unstoppable at the plate, and there’s been times where he’s looked completely lost. In 2018, we hoped to find out what he was going to be.
Unfortunately, we never got that chance. Sano ran into issues off the field after an abuse claim was made against him before the season started. Ultimately nothing came of the ensuing investigation, but it was disappointing to see Sano’s name attached to such news.
When the season started, Sano couldn’t seem to get going. By the end of April, he was hitting just .213 with 5 home runs in 20 games. He then went down with a hamstring issue that would keep him out of the major league lineup for nearly a full month (April 28 to May 24).
In the meantime, Eduardo Escobar took over at third base, shifting over from shortstop. Escobar was one of the few Minnesota Twins players to swing a hot bat in the first few months of the season. At the end of May, his slash line sat at .267/.324/.492 with 19 doubles in 49 games. Although Sano was out of the picture for the time being, third base was stable while Escobar held down fort.
Upon Sano’s return in late May, the Twins elected to shift people around a bit. Escobar split time between third base and shortstop while Sano was rotated between third base, first base, and DH. Over the next month, Sano was again unable to get it going at the plate, hitting .191 with 2 home runs and 30 strikeouts in 17 games. Then, the Twins made a statement, demoting Sano all the way down to high-A. The reasoning for such a drastic move was as much for Sano’s physical fitness as his performance. Throughout the season, there had been news regarding Sano being in less than ideal physical shape. Thad Levine expressed disappointment upon Sano’s report to spring training, stating Sano had brought a “generous carriage” along with him. The plan was for Sano to spend the majority of his time in Fort Myers focusing on physical fitness, while playing in A+ games every few days.
Meanwhile, Escobar once again became the Twins’ everyday third baseman. He continued to play well, posting a .272 average with 18 doubles and 7 home runs across June and July. Then, however, he was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks before the trade deadline, as a result of being an upcoming free agent and the Minnesota Twins not appearing to be in any sort of position to consider a potential playoff appearance.
Sano was called back up to the big leagues shortly after. He had played well in A+, and then a few games with AAA before being recalled, and it was time to give him another chance. Unfortunately, it was more of the same. From the last few days in July to the first few days of September, Sano slashed .202/.303/.404 with 6 home runs in 33 games. Marginally better, but still a long ways short of the expectations for him.
His disappointing season was capped off with another stretch of hamstring issues that caused him to appear in just one game after September 4th. Sano finished the year with a batting average of under .200, with just 13 home runs and 115 strikeouts in 71 games.
In the absence of Eduardo Escobar in the second half of the season, the Twins used a handful of players at third base. Sano got a bit of time, but Ehire Adrianza got a significant amount of playing time, as well as a few appearances from Willians Astudillo and Gregorio Petit. Adrianza played decently well, Astudillo had an impressive season while appearing at a variety of different positions, and Petit didn’t do much to make note of.
Looking forward
Let’s move on from 2018 and look forward to 2019. Many hoped that Eduardo Escobar would return to the Minnesota Twins and take over third base once again, but those dreams were crushed recently after he signed a 3-year extension with the Diamondbacks.
OFFICIAL: #Dbacks agree to terms with INF Eduardo Escobar on a 3-year contract through the 2021 season.
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) October 22, 2018
Welcome back, @escobarmaracay! pic.twitter.com/lnFksovux5
Gregorio Petit was DFAed early in the offseason by the Twins, leaving the team with Sano and Adrianza as the likely candidates to fill third base with an in-house solution. Adrianza has proven he can play third base on any given day, but his profile is better suited as a backup/utility infielder rather than a starter.
As for Sano, the front office is likely going to be hesitant to count on a full season from him. His recent performance has certainly been concerning as well. His situation is difficult in that he still has a lot of potential and the Twins need to keep space for him in the big leagues in case he does figure it out, but time is running out for him to realize that potential, and he hasn’t done enough for the Twins to be confident in him being able to cover the full season at third.
It’s tough to say if the Twins should be trying to leave space for him at third beyond the 2019 season or not. If he comes out and has a great year, then he would of course be someone you’d want to have space for in 2020 and beyond. But, if he has a year similar to 2018, then the Twins will be seriously considering moving on from Sano. All this adds up to the Twins probably looking for another option at third base for 2019, but it’s difficult to say how long of a solution they should be looking for.
There aren’t really any options for third base in the minor league system right now (it’s worth mentioning that Willians Astudillo could see some time at third after proving he’s competent all around the diamond, but he is far from a proven commodity, so the Twins should probably only count on him as a utility player for now), so the team may need to turn to free agency to be sure to have a good option at third base for the full season. The situation with Sano has created a bit tricky of a scenario. The team needs someone they can rely on to play a decent third base, but they also need to keep at bats open for Sano. Perhaps the best solution at this point would be to think of Sano as more of bench player for now that can rotate around from 3B, 1B, and DH, while trying to find a starter for third base through free agency.
Finding a free agent option could be a little bit tricky. There are a few options at third in the current free agent class, but not many. The biggest name available is Josh Donaldson. He’s intriguing because he has a very impressive resume, but his performance has fallen off each of the past few seasons as he has aged and dealt with some injuries, making him one of riskier free agents on the market. Given the uncertainty the Minnesota Twins are already experiencing at third base, Donaldson probably doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
Another decent option would be Adrian Beltre. The former Hall of Famer has had a long and successful career, but he is undoubtedly on his last legs. In fact, he’s likely considering retiring this offseason and may not take a contract if one were offered to him. If he does not retire, he could be a match for the Twins in terms of contract length, as they would be looking at a 1-year deal for him. This could allow the Twins to have an option for 2019 without committing to anything beyond that, leaving the door open for Sano in 2020, or another free agent if Sano doesn’t earn it. However, Beltre is a bit of a risky option as well, given he has played in just 94 and 119 games in 2017 and 2018 respectively as he has dealt with injuries. He has continued to play well, but it’s tough to say how much longer his body will allow him to keep playing.
Perhaps the only “safe” third baseman on the market this winter is Mike Moustakas. The former Kansas City Royals 3B was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers this past season. He was actually a free agent last year as well, but teams showed very little interest in him. He was forced to accept a 1-year deal with the Royals on March 8th, very late in the offseason. Moustakas has been a solid player over his career. He’s a career .257 hitter and averages 24 home runs in a year.
He’s also a reliable option, playing in at least 125 games in each of the past 7 seasons, excluding 2016 when he tore his ACL early in the season. He appears to be a pretty good fit for the Minnesota Twins. He’s good, but not so good that teams will be falling over left and right trying to sign him. He just turned 30, so he should have several quality seasons left in him, creating an opportunity for the Minnesota Twins to sign him to a multi-year deal.
The problem with Moustakas may come down to how much he’s willing to accept. At the end of the 2016 season, he declined a $17 million qualifying offer from the Royals, choosing to risk free agency instead. This backfired tragically on him, as he ended up signing for 1 year and $6 million with the Royals. This may indicate that Moustakas believes he’s worth much more than teams think. His agent is Scott Boras, which is another sign he may hold out for as big a contract as he can. Don’t get me wrong, Moustakas is a solid player. The issue is, he’s not a stud. If he thinks he’s worth $15 million per year but he’s actually worth just $5 million (these numbers are purely for example), teams could have a hard time signing him.
Still, if you look at everything else, Moustakas appears to be the only good option for the Twins this offseason. Donaldson and Beltre are too risky of options for the Twins right now, and after Moustakas, there really isn’t anyone of much quality. Yangervis Solarte has had a few decent years in the MLB, but he’s coming off a poor .226 average season, which doesn’t do much for a team looking for a safe, reliable option. After him, the best 3B free agents are the likes of Mark Reynolds (career .238 hitter averaging 189 strikeouts in a full season) and our old friend Trevor Plouffe (who played in just 7 games in the MLB in 2018). Yeah, not very many options.
All in all, it’s a difficult situation for the Minnesota Twins. They’ll have to balance making sure Sano gets another (final?) chance while not putting too much stock in him, finding a third baseman that’s good enough without getting too picky in a year without many options, and so on. The team does have a few options, but there’s not many of them.
Matt’s predictions
Man, I really don’t know.
This is a tricky one. I think Miguel Sano will get another shot, but I can’t see the Twins being confident enough in him to plan on a full season of quality baseball from him. I like Adrianza a lot as a utility infielder, but I really don’t like him much as a starter. Astudillo could get some time in the big leagues bouncing around from position to position, but I don’t feel at all comfortable going with him as the starter after less than 100 at bats in the MLB (and just 6 games at 3B).
The best, ideal option would be to sign Mike Moustakas to a 3 year contract. He’s just a really good match for the team. He’s solid player and wouldn’t be a liability in any aspect of the game, yet he’s not so good that many teams will be interested in him and drive up his price. Yet, his previous decisions about contracts has me worried that he wouldn’t be willing to sign a fair contract. I think he’d be a fantastic fit on the Twins for the next 3 seasons, but I don’t think he’s worth overpaying for. If he and Boras are going to hold out for more than he’s worth, I don’t see the Twins pulling the trigger.
Obviously, that leaves us in a conundrum. I can’t advocate the Minnesota Twins signing Josh Donaldson or Adrian Beltre because they don’t give us any sort of added safety. I feel about as confident in Sano being able to play a full season without missing significant time as I am in Donaldson or Beltre. If they’re only going to be active for half a season, I don’t see it as a worthwhile investment, even if only for 1-2 years.
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But, then we’re pretty much left with Yangervis Solarte. If you ignore his 2018 season, I could be fairly excited about him. But, his season was pretty concerning, for whatever reason that may be. With that said, I do think he is exactly the type of player the Minnesota Twins may be looking at, if you look at their historical free agent signings. He’s not very exciting at all and in all likelihood won’t turn out to be all that valuable, but he’d be pretty low risk and probably wouldn’t burn us with a bad contract.
If I was forced to pick who I think the Twins will sign at third base, I’d probably end up picking Solarte. I’m not all that excited about it, but that’s what I see happening. Ideally, I’d love to see Moustakas sign a reasonable 3 or 4 year contract. I think he’s the absolute perfect fit in this team, I just don’t know if he and Boras will let it happen without getting too expensive.
Next. 8 Free Agents the Twins need to pursue. dark
Summary
A tumultuous season for Miguel Sano left both the short term and long term outlook at third base foggy. There any good options for an everyday 3B within the organization right now, but Sano hasn’t given anyone reasons to count on him as the starter either. After Eduardo Escobar signed with the Diamondbacks, there suddenly became a very limited number of options for the Minnesota Twins if they do turn to free agency for a third baseman. Josh Donaldson and Adrian Beltre are pretty risky, and while Mike Moustakas seems like the perfect fit, I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t happen. That would leave us with Yangervis Solarte as the likely best option, which isn’t too exciting. Whatever happens, third base will be one of the most interesting story lines to watch as a Minnesota Twins fan.