Minnesota Twins: 8 free agents the team should try to sign this offseason
With the free agent frenzy soon to be underway, one of our contributors shares their thoughts on who the Minnesota Twins should target.
With the Minnesota Twins sitting at under $30 million currently committed to 2019 payroll before arbitration agreements and free agency signings, the Twins will have plenty of salary to work with this offseason. Even after setting aside a pile of money for arbitration and potential extensions to the likes of Jose Berrios and Eddie Rosario, it’s entirely possible the team could have over $50 million available to spend on free agents, if not more. With that big of a chunk of money available, the Twins could make some significant noise this offseason. But where, exactly, should this money go? I’ve picked out 8 players I think the team should make an effort to sign. Here’s what I came up with.
Positions of need
As a brief introduction, let’s establish where the Minnesota Twins could use some help. Positions that I think we can be pretty confident in heading into 2019 without bolstering with a free agent are catcher, shortstop, outfield, and the starting rotation. I include the rotation in that group someone hesitantly as I see it as a place we don’t need to address. Our starters quietly had a pretty good 2018 season. There’s actually not a whole lot of space in the rotation either. Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, and Jake Odorizzi are all locks for the rotation, and after those three, there’s plenty of options to round it out. Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Michael Pineda, Zack Littell, and Adalberto Mejia have all shown promise as starters and can make a solid argument for why they should get a crack at the rotation. And all that’s before getting into guys like Chase De Jong who are a little less proven but could get a chance to show what they’ve got.
Now, with all that said, in a perfect world, we’d have one more solid arm as a #1 or #2 so everyone from Gibson on could be pushed down a slot in the order. That’d take the rotation from a solid group to a pretty good group. But, as we know all too well, good pitching is hard to come by. Looking at the available options this offseason, I personally don’t see any good matches that the Minnesota Twins should make big attempts to sign. There’s really not many options out there this year. Instead, I would advocate trying to find a pitcher in trade.
Anyways, back to positions of need. Our biggest hole, in my opinion, is in the bullpen. We actually have a solid small group of relievers as-is, but there’s not quite enough quality there for me to feel confident about it right now. With a couple of smart signings, though, I think we could turn our average bullpen into one of the better ones in the league. Beyond the bullpen, the Minnesota Twins have a clear need at second base. Given the uncertainty surrounding Miguel Sano after a tumultuous season, there’s a good argument that the team is in need of a third baseman as well. Finally, while Tyler Austin looks like a good bet to become our next starting first baseman, he’s currently the only 1B on our roster, so the team could use one more decent option there.
Now, let’s get to my ideal free agent targets.
Bullpen
We’ll start off with what I think is the biggest hole the Minnesota Twins currently have, and also the potential to be the biggest area of success in free agency, the bullpen. As mentioned earlier, we’re actually not in too bad of a spot right now. Trevor May, Trevor Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers, and Gabriel Moya is a pretty promising start, but beyond that group (and even within it, to some extent), there’s some uncertainty. The good news is that there’s a lot of options in quantity. Beyond the 4 previous listed, Addison Reed, Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz, and Matt Magill, all figure to get some innings throughout the season. Plus, whoever doesn’t make the cut for the rotation could be bullpen options as well, including Gonsalves, Romero, Littell, Stewart, Pineda, and Mejia. And that’s not even getting into minor leaguers and players with less experience, like John Curtiss, Aaron Slegers, Lewis Thorpe, Andrew Vasquez, and so on.
But, it’s clear that we could use some more quality along with May, Hildenberger, Rogers, and Moya as locks in the bullpen. Here, I present 4 quality relievers I believe the Minnesota Twins should make strong runs at this offseason.
Kelvin Herrera
Kelvin Herrera made a name for himself as a critical part of the Kansas City Royals’ stellar bullpen during their back to back World Series appearances in 2014 and 2015. Herrera boasts a career ERA of 2.82. 2017 was an outlier for Herrera, when he posted a 4.25 ERA, but excluding that season, he hasn’t had a season of an ERA above 2.75 since 2013. He has experience both as a fireman/setup type reliever as well as closing, and will turn 29 on December 31st. In addition to quality pitching Herrera would bring valuable veteran and postseason experience to a Minnesota Twins bullpen core that will is incredibly young.
Herrera will have many suitors this offseason, but at the same time, he could fall between the cracks a bit. He’s overshadowed by premium names like Craig Kimbrel, Zach Britton, and David Robertson, and could blend in to a large grouping of tier 1B or tier 2 relievers including Herrera, Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, Joakim Soria, and others that we’ll get to in a minute. However, even if he does get attention from a wide range of teams, remember that the Twins have a lot of money available to spend. I won’t advocate that they spend a ridiculous amount of money on a reliever, but with as much payroll room available as there will be, the team should be able to compete for just about any reliever on the market.
It is worth noting that Herrera tore a ligament in his foot late in late August this season. He underwent surgery to repair it in early September and is expected to be ready for spring training, though, so I don’t expect the injury to play that big of a role in his popularity this offseason.
Cody Allen
Like Herrera, Cody Allen fits right into the large tier 1B/tier 2 grouping of relievers that is available this year. Allen has been the Cleveland Indians’ closer for the past few seasons, and he’s been quite good. Since 2014, he has a 3.03 ERA and has averaged 29 saves while totalling a K/BB of 3.40. Like Herrera, Allen has some postseason experience, including a flawless 2016 postseason ERA of 0.00 during the Indians’ run to the World Series which ended in a Game 7 loss to the Chicago Cubs.
Allen is another player who may get overlooked in the large mess of relievers available this offseason. His name doesn’t carry the same weight as Kimbrel, Britton, or teammate Andrew Miller, and his stats may be slightly inferior to those of Herrera, Ottavino, and several others. But make no mistake, Allen is a proven, quality reliever that would be an asset to any team in the league. Yet, he strikes me as someone that teams may put on the back burner early on in the offseason while instead focusing on the bigger names like Kimbrel, Britton, and Miller, only turning to Allen as they fall out of the running for the more premier names.
The Minnesota Twins would do well to not overlook Allen like this. If they show interest in him early on in the offseason and try to be one of the first to submit him an offer, the Twins may be rewarded with a quality reliever while other teams focus in on the guys with more name recognition.
Brad Brach
Another proven, quality option the Minnesota Twins should make an effort to sign is Brad Brach. Brach spent the first few years of his career with the San Diego Padres before going to the Baltimore Orioles where his career really took off. He had been with the Orioles from 2014 until shortly before the trade deadline this past season when he was traded to the Atlanta Braves. During this period of time, he has been stellar. Brach has pitched 60+ innings each season in this time span, totalling a 2.89 ERA. His best year by far was 2016, where he pitched 79 innings and boasted a 2.05 ERA, earning himself his lone All-Star appearance in his career.
Brach is a little bit older than my other suggested targets, as he will be 33 early in the season next year, and there could be a bit of concern over the fact that his stats have worsened each of the past 2 seasons. Yet, he’s still put up good numbers overall, and it’s worth noting that the 2017 and 2018 Orioles were downright terrible. As one of the few quality players on each of those teams, it’s reasonable to think that part of those lesser numbers may be as result of entering games with more players on base more often. But it’s hard to say without diving into each individual game over that two year span.
Brach will be another guy that will get plenty of attention this offseason, yet might be more of a backup plan for many teams. There’s a good number of free agent relievers that are better than him at this point, including Kimbrel, Robertson, Britton, Miller, Herrera, Ottavino, Soria, and a handful of guys that one could put ahead of Brach based on preference, but Brach is definitely still a solid option. To me, it’s the same case as with Allen above. Teams are going to want him, but they might try to get a few of the bigger names before they try for Brach.
If the Minnesota Twins get out ahead of everyone else and meet with Brach early on, he could be a nice addition to the team while everyone else focuses on the top few relievers (who the Twins probably shouldn’t be looking at anyways due to the money they’ll likely command).
Joe Kelly
Finally, I give you Joe Kelly. Now, I will admit that like many others, part of the reason I’m excited about Kelly is because of what he did in the World Series. It sure was worth getting excited about, though- He finished the Series with a perfect 0.00 ERA in 6.0 innings, and finished the entire 2018 postseason with a stellar 0.79 ERA after allowing just 1 earned run in 11.1 innings. It’s fair to look at those numbers, and then look at his 2018 regular season ERA of 4.39, and say that he’s getting more attention than he probably deserves due to a few good innings this postseason. And that’s probably right. But Kelly is still a very exciting option this offseason.
Kelly has 5 pitches, highlighted by a 99 mph fastball. His curve and sliders have a lot of bite, and when everything’s working, he’s incredibly hard to hit. See his postseason stats this year. He finished the season with a 4.39 ERA over 65.2 innings, but he sure shut teams down when it mattered. He has some history of success as well, with a 2.79 ERA in 58 innings in 2017.
Regardless of his historical stats, his shutdown performances this past postseason will make him a popular target for many teams. Kelly actually voiced a desire to stay in Boston several days ago, and it’s easy to see why. Still, those desires can change once a player starts getting numerous offers. Either way, the Twins would be smart to make a play at signing Kelly. He has some raw, real talent and would be an exciting addition to the bullpen.
Batters
Keeping in mind the main areas of need for the Minnesota Twins offensively, let’s shift focus to a couple of batters the team should target.
Marwin Gonzalez
Let’s start off with my top batting target this offseason, Marwin Gonzalez. One of the most exciting things about Gonzalez is that he’s a super, super utility player. Other than pitcher and catcher, Marwin plays everything. That’s not an exaggeration. In 2018 alone, he saw time at LF, CF, RF, 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, and DH. IN 2017, he played at LF, RF, 3B, SS, 2B, and 1B. In 2016, he appeared at LF, CF, 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, and DH. You get the idea.
This sort of positional flexibility is nearly unheard of in today’s game. Better yet, he’s not just a defensive player. Dating back to 2014, Gonzalez has slashed .271/.328/.438 while averaging 15 home runs and 53 RBI. That might not be too exciting if you were looking at a player who could only play a position or two, but Gonzalez covers 7 of them (8 if you include DH). Without starters yet at 2B or 3B, and a need for a backup 1B, Gonzalez would be a great addition to the team.
This could make even more sense given Miguel Sano’s situation. The Twins would want to leave space for a fully operational, effective Sano in the lineup, but they likely don’t want to have to count on him either, given how poor of a season he had. Gonzalez fits in perfectly there. If the best case scenario happens and Sano is back to an All-Star caliber in 2019, he can take 3B and Gonzalez can get everyday playing time bouncing around from position to position. If Sano bombs again, then Gonzalez can hold down fort at 3B in the meantime.
Players like this simply don’t come on the market very often, and I believe the Minnesota Twins would strongly benefit from adding Marwin Gonzalez to the team, even if they have to slightly overpay to get him.
Jed Lowrie
Next up is my first choice to fill in as our starting second baseman- Jed Lowrie. He has quietly been a very solid player for the Oakland Athletics for the past few seasons. He’s hit between .263 and .277 each of the past 3 seasons, with OBPs between .314 and .360. Turning 35 early on in the 2019 season, he’s one of the older players available this offseason, but I think he lines up well with what the Twins are looking for out of a 2B.
I think the plan is still to have Jorge Polanco swing over to 2B once Royce Lewis is ready to take over shortstop, but that’s still at least a full year away. There aren’t really any top-tier second basemen available this offseason, nor do I think the Twins need to find one. Someone like Lowrie can bridge the gap until the Lewis area, and do so while still providing quality production in the meantime.
One concern with Lowrie is that he just posted a career bests in home runs and RBI in 2018, with 23 and 99 respectively. These are stats that might paint Lowrie as a better player than he is in actuality. We can look to what happened with Logan Morrison as a cautionary tale as to why teams should be cautious when balancing expectations and reality.
Yet, while Lowrie might drop back down to the 13-18 home run level, he would still provide enough offensive contributions elsewhere as to still be worthwhile in the lineup. He’ll likely have several other teams interested in him, but he’s too good for a match for the Minnesota Twins to not take a serious look at signing him.
Asdrubal Cabrera
If Lowrie doesn’t end up in Minnesota, Asdrubal Cabrera would be a good Plan B, if not just as good of a Plan A. Similar to Lowrie, Cabrera hasn’t gotten a whole lot of league-wide love. Yet, he’s been pretty good! Since 2015, he’s slashed .272/.329/.450 while averaging 19 home runs per year.
He’s played a mix of 2B and SS each of the past few seasons, but if he found his way to the Twins, he’d probably spend the large majority of his time at second. Cabrera, again like Lowrie, could be a good candidate for a 1-3 year deal, which would cover until Lewis is able to debut, making him another logical option for the Minnesota Twins to explore at 2B.
In terms of how popular he may be, it’s tough to say. There’s a fair number of teams that could be in the market for a second baseman, but without any top tier players at the position available this offseason, there’s no good way to say which of the numerous mid-tier options teams will gravitate to. Many teams, Twins included, will likely work with several different second basemen and eventually work their way down to one guy as their top choice.
Joe Mauer
Last, but certainly not least, Joe Mauer should be on the watch list. The team should try to ease Tyler Austin into being a full time starter and see how that goes, but they need another first baseman as the roster stands, even if it was purely as a backup. Mauer fits in perfectly here.
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I believe he still has some production left in the tank, and his calming presence in the clubhouse is always going to be valuable. We all know what Mauer’s story is, so I don’t feel that I need to get too far into reasons why he should be brought back, but I’ll mention that one of the prevailing reasons fans may not think Mauer should come back is because it would lessen the meaning of the beautiful moments in the final game of the 2018 season.
While that’s probably true, think of why those moments did mean so much. Players like Joe don’t come around very often, and if we can hold onto him for even one more season, we should be happy to do so. He can still produce, would fit in well at first in splitting time with Austin, and would be a strong asset to team culture. If Mauer wants to keep going for another season, the Twins should make it happen.
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Summary
There you have it, 8 players that the Minnesota Twins should target this offseason. Kelvin Herrera, Cody Allen, Brad Brach, and Joe Kelly would be great additions to the bullpen, while Marwin Gonzalez, Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Joe Mauer would be nice boosts to the lineup. Free agents will be allowed to beginning signing on Saturday, November 3rd, so we should start hearing more rumors soon. It’s likely that most players will take at least a few weeks to sign somewhere, but if things go well, the Minnesota Twins will land a handful of the guys mentioned in this article.