Minnesota Twins 2018 positional recap, part 3- Second basemen
In part 3 of an ongoing series recapping the 2018 Minnesota Twins season by looking at each position, we turn our attention to our second base.
If you’ve missed parts 1 or 2, where we’ve started covering the Minnesota Twins’ 2018 season position by position, here are links where you can get caught up with what we’ve previously covered:
Brian Dozier handled nearly all of the 2nd base duties before being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers before the July 31st trade deadline. After that, Logan Forsythe, who was part of the return package for Dozier, drew most of the innings at 2B, though Gregorio Petit and Ehire Adrianza also got a few games here and there throughout the season. Willians Astudillo, Taylor Motter, and Eduardo Escobar each had a maximum of 9 innings as a second baseman this season as well, but that is negligible for our purposes here. First thing’s first, here is your 2018 Minnesota Twins’ second basemen recap.
2018 recap
Heading into the season, second base was one of our most stable positions. Brian Dozier was coming off his 5th consecutive season where he played in more than 145 games, and his 2016 and 2017 seasons were fantastic. In 2016, he smashed 42 home runs while slashing .268/.340/.546, and in 2017 he hit 34 home runs while slashing .271/.359/.489. He was entering the final year of his contract, and expectations were high. He was expected to continue to be one of the best offensive threats in the Minnesota Twins’ lineup, hopefully leading the team to another postseason appearance.
That never happened.
Through May, Dozier was batting just .233 with 8 home runs. Through June, he was down to .217 with 11 home runs. By the end of July, he sat at .227 with 16 home runs. At this point, the Minnesota Twins elected to trade him to the Dodgers. He was due to become a free agent at the end of the season, and all signs pointed towards him signing elsewhere, so the front office decided to take what they could get for him. It was an understandable decision, given that the team was entering August with just a 44-59 record, 12 full games back from the Cleveland Indians in the division.
As part of the return for Dozier, the Twins received Logan Forsythe, who was mainly included for financial reasons to keep the Dodgers under the luxury tax limit. Plus, the Twins needed a 2B for the rest of the season, so including Forsythe worked out well both ways. He got off to a great start with the Twins, posting a .308 average and a .406 OBP in August. His production fell considerably in the final month of the season, though, posting a .207 average and a .303 OBP in September. Forsythe will become a free agent upon the conclusion of the World Series, so there is no guarantee he will be back with the team next year.
Gregorio Petit and Ehire Adrianza rounded out most of the rest of the Twins’ second basemen in 2018. Both held more of a backup utility role than solely a 2B role. Petit, a 33 year old journeyman of sorts, performed admirably, posting a line of .247/.313/.279 in 29 games. Petit was outrighted off the 40-man roster earlier this month and is expected to become a free agent and seek a minor league contract. Adrianza had a solid season for the Twins, appearing at SS, 3B, 2B, 1B, LF, and DH. He slashed .251/.301/.379 across 114 games, a respectable line for a backup utility player. Adrianza is entering his 2nd year of arbitration and likely will remain with the Minnesota Twins in 2019.
Looking forward
Second base is one of the Minnesota Twins’ biggest question marks heading into the 2019 season. There’s no easy answer as to how the team should address the position. The only viable option currently on the active roster is Adrianza, though he is likely better suited for a utility role than a starting job. Looking to the farm system, infielder Nick Gordon is likely to debut at some point in 2019, but after back to back seasons of hardly any 2nd half production (from July through the end of the season, he hit .219 in 2017 and .191 in 2018), there is skepticism about how much he will contribute at the major league level. Gordon doesn’t hit for power and isn’t overly speedy, so his contributions will have to come through hitting for a high average. Needless to say, his second half lines from the past 2 seasons leave a bit to be desired.
There has been talk over the past few years of Jorge Polanco moving from shortstop to second base, with Gordon or Royce Lewis taking over as the long term shortstop. With lots of uncertainty surrounding Gordon, and Lewis rising to one of the highest rated prospects in the MLB, the Minnesota Twins will likely wait for Lewis to reach the big leagues before considering moving Polanco to second base. Lewis likely won’t debut until 2020 at the earliest, so there’s no need to have Polanco swing over to 2B heading into 2019.
Add all this together, and you have a team without a great option for second base next year. Good news, though- there is a fairly wide assortment of second basemen available in free agency this year. The grouping is headlined by Brian Dozier and DJ LeMahieu. A reunion with Dozier has seemed unlikely, reading between the lines of statements by him and actions taken by the front office, but after a dreadful 2nd half to the season, Dozier may have scared off some teams that were previously interested in him. If his price has fallen enough, it could be possible for him to sign back with Minnesota, likely on a contract no longer than 3 years. LeMahieu, on the other hand, is sure to have several teams interested in him. The 2-time All-Star and 2-time Gold Glove winner has a career batting average of .298, though he has never hit more than 15 home runs in a season (even hitting at Coors field), and hasn’t typically driven in many runs (though to be fair, he’s hit almost exclusively 1st or 2nd in the lineup, meaning not a whole lot of RBI opportunities have generally available to him. With Dozier’s poor second half, and several quality teams needing a 2B for 2019 and beyond, it wouldn’t be surprising to see LeMahieu’s price tag be too high for the Twins to make a play at him.
There are, however, still a wide range of options. Players like Daniel Murphy, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, and Ian Kinsler are all veterans that likely will end up with shorter term deals that could match what the Twins are looking for. The same goes for Logan Forsythe, who could find his way back to Minnesota. Of this group, Murphy is the most talented, but likely could end up receiving a contract worth more than $14 million per year, likely too much for the Twins. The others, though, won’t be as expensive, and any of them could fit in well. The Minnesota Twins are likely looking for a veteran on a cheaper, 1-2 year contract to bridge the gap until Royce Lewis debuts and takes over shortstop. Cabrera, Lowrie, and Kinsler all fit that mold, and each have quietly been pretty solid players. Forsythe could be in play as well, but after his cold finish to the season, the Twins may look to bring in someone else instead.
Matt’s predictions
Ehire Adrianza appears to be all but a lock to be back with the Minnesota Twins in 2019. He won’t cost a whole lot in arbitration, likely no more than $3 million, and he’s a good guy to have around as a utility player. I personally would strongly prefer to keep him as a backup rather than a starter, but it’s not too far out there to consider that the Twins may let him start next year.
As mentioned earlier, Nick Gordon is all but guaranteed to make his major league debut at some point this season. However, he’s shown a lot of struggles for the 2nd half of two consecutive seasons now, and without any real offensive weapons outside of the ability to hit .300, he’s not going to be worth much if he’s not hitting around that mark. I’m all for giving him his shot, but I don’t think it’s worth saving a starter slot for him at this point. I’m going to guess that the Twins have him start the season in AAA after his terrible finish to 2018, and if he plays even just ok for the first month or two, he’ll probably be called up at that point.
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As for the Twins’ next starting 2B, I think it will come down to Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Ian Kinsler. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Logan Forsythe come back, but I’d prefer one of the first three listed. I do have to note that I would love to see a reunion with Dozier on a reasonable 2 year contract, but I just feel that both he and the front office will move on from each other. Anyways, Lowrie, Cabrera, or Kinsler would all provide decent at bats while acting as a bridge of sorts until Royce Lewis is ready in 2020 or 2021 and Polanco shifts over to 2B. These veterans wouldn’t be the most exciting signings, but I do think each of the trio would be a quality addition to the lineup that would make sense for the franchise. They could provide decent production in the short term without blocking anyone long term or eating up too much of our payroll. As two which of the three I’d predict signs, it really could be any of them. They’re all pretty comparable at this point and I can’t make too much of a case for why we should sign one over the other.
Next. Free agents the Twins need to target this offseason. dark
In summary
2018 was a major letdown at second base, as Brian Dozier fell from one of the top three 2Bs in the league to a backup (albeit a backup on the National League’s best team). Logan Forsythe provided a warm body to finish out the season at 2B, but we now have some decisions to make. Adrianza is a better option as a utility player than a starter, and Gordon has shown some major issues each of the past two seasons, so it’s likely the Minnesota Twins turn to a veteran 2B in the free agency market to hold down the fort until Royce Lewis makes his long-awaited debut and Jorge Polanco moves over to 2B.