Minnesota Twins 2018 positional recap, part 2- First basemen
Next up in this series of recapping the Minnesota Twins’ 2018 season position by position, we take a look at the first basemen.
Part 2 in an ongoing series of recapping the Minnesota Twins season by position is here, where we analyze our season at first base. If you missed part one (catchers), I encourage you to give it a read!
The team used a multitude of different players at first base this year- Joe Mauer, Logan Morrison, Tyler Austin, and Miguel Sano got the brunt of the time, but Ehire Adrianza, Chris Gimenez, Mitch Garver, and Gregorio Petit all got a bit of time there as well. We’ll key in on the first 4 names of that group, who accounted for a combined 1,372.1 innings at first base this year, compared to just 67.2 combined innings from the latter 4 names. To start off, we’ll recap the season-
2018 recap
Joe Mauer was always going to get significant playing time at first base this season, and Miguel Sano figured to get a bit of time here and there as well while bouncing around between first base, third base, and DH. In late February, the Twins added another name to the first base mix when they signed Logan Morrison to a 1-year, $6.5 million contract. The signing shifted expected playing time at first base slightly. Mauer and Morrison would now likely split starts at first base and DH, shifting Sano back to more of a 3B/DH role. The team was thought to have to be a bit creative to fit everyone in their lineup day to day, as Mauer and Morrison would occupy first base and DH, meaning the only place for Sano was third base. Problem there was Eduardo Escobar would also get significant playing time at third base. He could also play elsewhere in the infield, but we already had starters at shortstop and second base in Jorge Polanco and Brian Dozier. So, while the Morrison signing was exciting, as he was coming off a 38-home run season, it did create a slightly crowded infield.
It turned out not to be an issue, and not in a good way.
Morrison got off to a horrid start to the year, with his batting average not exceeding .100 until 15 games into the season. He would finish the month of April with a .145/.253/.250 triple slash along with just 2 home runs. The Minnesota Twins had little choice but to let him try to play through the slump. Perhaps the warmer weather would help wake up Morrison’s bat.
Nope.
The longest stretch that Morrison’s batting average would stay above .200 for the rest of the season was just 1 week long. He simply was never able to get anything going at the plate. Mercifully, Morrison’s season would end prematurely in early August upon landing on the DL for a hip injury that would require surgery. The LoMo experiment was an incredible failure, as he ended his year slashing .186/.276/.368 with 15 home runs and a strikeout rate of over 20%.
Miguel Sano’s season didn’t go much better. He got off to a poor start right from the get-go, after a photographer accused Sano of abuse after a 2015 autograph session. Ultimately, nothing would come of the investigation by the MLB, citing “insufficient evidence to support a disciplinary determination”. Still, not at all how anybody wanted to start the year.
Author’s note- This article is not attempting to determine if the accusation against Sano was true or not, nor trying to persuade readers to believe either side. The sole purpose of the previous paragraph is to cover a notable event in Sano’s season.
Just like Morrison, Sano’s performance to start the year was disappointing. By the end of April, he was slashing .213/.289/.450 with 5 home runs and 36 strikeouts in 80 at bats. A hamstring injury would send him to the DL in the final days of April and eventually cause a stint on the DL. Upon returning in late May, he would last less than a month before continued struggles prompted the Minnesota Twins to demote Sano down to High-A where he would focus more on getting in shape than getting the bat going again.
He would return to the MLB in late July and stay there until early September when an awkward slide into 2nd resulted in him being carted off the field. There were no serious injuries on this play, but Sano would only appear in one more game for the rest of the season before being shut down, ending a very disappointing year. In his final 34 games after being called back up from the minors, Sano managed a meager .195/.294/.390 with 6 home runs and 49 strikeouts in 118 at bats. What was hoped to be a big step forward for Sano in 2018 turned out to be a huge step back, creating questions as to how big a part of the team he will be in 2019.
Let’s shift our focus to a brighter spot, Joe Mauer. It still wasn’t elite Joe, but his overall season was solid. He finished with a .282 average and .351 OBP in 127 games played. There were, however, a few more rounds of injuries, including another bout with concussion symptoms. It clearly wasn’t Mauer’s best season, but it wasn’t too bad either.
If the 1B news from the season ended there, the outlook for 2019 would be pretty bleak- Morrison won’t be back, Sano didn’t provide any reasons to count on him as a starter next year, and Mauer is considering retirement. Thankfully, the Minnesota Twins were able to add a solid, young first basemen in Tyler Austin after trading Lance Lynn to the Yankees for Austin and minor league pitcher Luis Rijo.
Austin was essentially everything that Morrison was supposed to be, but younger and cheaper. He’ll never hit for much average (his career average is just .232 over 120 games in the MLB), but he provides legit power to the lineup. He has yet to get a chance to play a full season in the majors, but he could easily top 35-40 home runs in a season, albeit while hitting no more than .240. He’ll strike out a fair amount, but in today’s MLB, that’ll play just fine.
With the Twins, Austin hit .236 with 9 home runs in 35 games, including a few moonshots-
https://twitter.com/statcast/status/1030642187300753415
In a season with more disappointments than excitement at first base, Austin gave the team a much needed boost at the position. He’s been a pretty consistent player during his time in the MLB, and having someone like that with big power will be great for the team moving forward.
To round out the rest of the 2018 season at first base, we have to mention that Adrianza, Gimenez, Garver, and Petit all got a bit of playing time at first base, but nothing notable. It was all in more of a backup/emergency capacity, and none of those players figure to play much of a factor at first base in the future. Only Adrianza and Garver are expected to be with the team next season, and while both may see a few innings at first base, it is unlikely that either gets significant time there.
Let’s switch our focus to what to expect in 2019.
Looking forward
To start off, Morrison won’t be with the Twins in 2019 (he has a team option, but there’s absolutely no reason the Twins would pick it up). Mauer may or may not be back, as he is considering retirement and will reportedly wait until after the MLB postseason finishes to decided. Sano isn’t someone I’m counting on anymore, but I am still hopeful he can figure it out. I’m not expecting him to make much of a difference at first base next year, though that’s due in part to him being much more of a third baseman than a first baseman to this point in his career. So, of the 4 main first basemen the Twins used this year, there is a very good chance that 3 of the 4 won’t be a factor at the position in 2019. Thankfully, we still have Tyler Austin.
Let’s get excited for a minute. If you project Austin’s numbers over a 162-game season, using his totals with the Minnesota Twins from this season, you get a pretty nice line- 83 runs, 18 doubles, 41 home runs, 50 walks, 194 strikeouts, .236 average, .294 OBP, .388 SLG%. Now, it’s difficult to keep that pace for a full season, and that line is probably closer to a ceiling for Austin than an expectation. But still, Austin never seems to get overly hot or overly cold, and he’s been waiting for his chance to play a full season in the majors (the Yankees weren’t ever able to give him more than 40 games in a season). Austin strikes me as someone that will be a pretty solid contributor. His downside with high strikeouts and low batting average is made up for with his fantastic power, and while he doesn’t look like a Gold Glover defensively, he’s certainly more than serviceable and there shouldn’t be any major concerns.
Due to a combination of skill set and lack of competition, Austin should be our main first baseman in 2019. If he elects not to retire, Mauer will get time at first, though I have to think he may start to shift to more of a backup role than a starter. Though, it’s worth noting that for now, the Twins have the space to use Mauer and Austin both in everyday lineups, giving one 1B and the other DH. That could certainly change as the roster is tweaked throughout the offseason.
As it stands now, nobody other than Austin is a lock play a lot of 1B next year. After he and Mauer, there’s not anyone with big league experience in the organization that we should expect to see at 1B consistently. Prospect Brent Rooker had a successful season in AA, hitting .254 with 32 doubles and 22 home runs, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Twins elect to give him another half season with AA or AAA in 2019, perhaps promoting him after that if he plays well. He’s been a solid prospect for the past few years with good, not elite skills. He has a fairly high floor, but doesn’t appear to have a super high ceiling either. He’ll do a bit of everything at the plate, but likely won’t be great at any one thing. I do think he’ll turn into at least an average MLB first baseman with solid, not fantastic power, and solid, not fantastic average. I’d be very surprised if 2019 passes without him making his debut, but again, I think the Twins would like to see a bit more work from him in the minors before debuting.
If we want to get creative, one potential situation would be to have Mitch Garver transition away from catcher and into more of a first base role. That would allow Jason Castro and Willians Astudillo to handle the catching duties, and let Austin and Garver split time between 1B and DH. I don’t see this as a very likely scenario, though, and Garver’s hit skill is more valuable as a catcher than as a 1B or DH. But, if something comes up and the Minnesota Twins desperately need another 1B, then it could be worth considering as an emergency solution.
There isn’t a whole lot available at first base in the free agent pool this offseason. Mauer, of course, will be an option if he elects not to retire, but after him, the only semi-realistic possibilities I see are Matt Adams or Lucas Duda. Neither are very exciting at all, and the Twins wouldn’t look great if they had to rely on either as a starter. But if Mauer retires, Rooker needs a bit more time in the minors, and Garver stays behind the plate, I could see Adams or Duda coming in as a backup. Again, neither are very exciting, but those are the free agent 1Bs that seem somewhat realistic to me.
Matt’s 2019 predictions
The first factor in predicting the Minnesota Twins’ first base scenario for 2019 is deciding whether or not Joe Mauer will retire. If I had to guess right now, I would say Mauer is leaning towards retirement. I don’t have any insider information or anything, but the vibe I’m getting is that while he still feels like he has some gas in the tank, he’s leaning towards calling it a career to prevent any more potential concussion issues and to be able to spend more time with his family.
With Mauer retiring, we’d be left only with Tyler Austin. I think Austin is a great candidate to become our next starter, and I’m really interested to see what he can do over a full season. But, the Twins will want a backup as well so they can give Austin some off days. This is where things get a little more difficult to predict.
I think 2019 will be a great time for Brent Rooker to debut and start getting some experience. There’s certainly an opportunity for him, with Austin the only other first baseman currently in the organization and close to or in the majors, and Rooker is getting pretty close to being MLB-ready and has some skills that should play well. But, I think the Minnesota Twins organization would prefer to give him a few more months in AA or AAA rather than starting him in the majors. There’s certainly a chance that he could win a roster spot out of spring training, particularly if the Twins don’t bring in any outside competition, but I think in a perfect world, Rooker wouldn’t debut until midseason.
That makes things a little difficult, though. You don’t want to sign a free agent to be a backup for half a season (and I really don’t want to bother with any of the first base free agents not named Joe Mauer, anyways), but half a season is a little bit too long to try make it work with the people we have know. We could go back to the situation of having Garver play more first base and let Castro and Astudillo catch, but I still think that’s less than ideal.
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Thus, I’m not entirely sure what the Minnesota Twins will do at this point. Austin is a given to make the roster, and he should be the starter for the majority of the season. If Mauer doesn’t retire, then this dilemma has an easy solution, as Austin and Mauer will be the guys, probably with Rooker still debuting at some point. If Mauer does retire, then it’s more of a tossup to me. If I was forced to decide what to do in that situation, I would have Austin as the starter and Rooker as the backup out of spring training, just because there’s not an ideal backup first baseman already on our roster, and no free agent outside of Mauer seems worthwhile to me at first base. However, if Rooker struggles in spring training or doesn’t appear to be ready for whatever reason, I don’t have a good prediction of what will happen to start the year.
At the end of the day, Austin is a lock, with whoever is behind him being more of a tossup. It will be one of the many story lines to watch throughout the offseason.
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In summary
The 2018 Minnesota Twins first basemen had a pretty disappointing season. Logan Morrison, to put it nicely, didn’t work out, and Miguel Sano wasn’t a weapon. We did see another solid season from Joe Mauer, perhaps the last season of his career, and Tyler Austin gives us something to look forward to in 2019. First base will likely be one of the positions with the most changeover from 2018 to 2019 for the Minnesota Twins, and it will be interesting to see what comes of the position behind Tyler Austin.