Minnesota Twins 2017 draft decisions looking good under Falvey and Levine

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MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JUNE 17: Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey of the Minnesota Twins holds up a jersey with number one overall draft pick Royce Lewis and agent Scott Boras at a press conference on June 17, 2017 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

The Minnesota Twins front office of Falvey and Levine made a smart decision early in their tenure with their 2017 No. 1 draft pick choice of Royce Lewis.

On November 7, 2016, the Minnesota Twins marked a new era in their franchise by introducing Derek Falvey and Thad Levine as the new heads of the front office. Falvey’s official titles are Executive Vice President and Chief Baseball Officer, while Levine’s titles are Senior Vice President and General Manager. The pair is the next in line of what has been a stable front office for the Twins franchise. There have only been 7 different General Managers before Levine, including Rob Antony who acted as interim manager after the firing of Terry Ryan.

The pair has promised a return to winning ways in Minnesota. Admittedly, Minnesota sports fans are used to hearing the promise but have not often been rewarded for their patience. Still, the duo deserves some time to make good on their promise before we can say if they have succeeded or failed. The Minnesota Twins are a franchise that (breaking news) can’t afford to sign whoever they want out of free agency, so they are instead reliant on savvy value signings and growing talent from within. The latter is what we’ll take a look at today.

Now, it’s difficult to say with a high degree of confidence if the high draft picks Falvey and Levine made were good picks or not. Unlike the NBA or NFL where it is common for high round picks to make an immediate impact with their team, MLB draft picks typically require a minimum of 2-3 years in the minors before they make it to the big leagues. Seeing as very few players from the 2017 draft, the first Falvey and Levine oversaw for the Twins, has made their MLB debut, there is no guarantee that what follows will be accurate in several years when we have more context. But for now, the choices of the new front office appear to be quite smart. Let’s take a closer look.

2017 Draft

Falvey and Levine had a big decision to make right off the bat. The Twins held the #1 pick in the draft, and there were several seemingly good options. Hunter Greene was the flashiest name available, a high schooler boasting strong abilities as both a pitcher (featuring a 100+ MPH fastball) and a hitter. Brendan McKay was another dual-threat option that many considered to be worthy of the top overall pick. Pitcher Kyle Wright rounded out the group that seemed to be most main in contention of coming to Minnesota at #1 in the weeks leading up to the draft.

Then, Falvey and Levine threw a curveball and selected shortstop Royce Lewis. Hunter Greene went 2nd to the Cincinnati Reds. While most agreed that Lewis was deserving of an early first round pick, the selection surprised many, including some of our own at Puckett’s Pond. A common criticism was that the Minnesota Twins were being “cheap”, as Greene had gotten the most headlines of any potential pick, but it was well known that he would require a hefty signing bonus. That said, Lewis set a record after signing the most expensive deal as a draftee out of high school at $6.725 million, though Greene would break that record several weeks later at $7.2 million following a scare that Greene would not sign at all (he signed just minutes before the deadline that would have meant the Reds had wasted their pick).

Thanks to a 103-loss season in 2016, the Twins also received a competitive balance pick that came in at 35th overall, selecting first baseman Brent Rooker out of Mississippi State University. There was less news surrounding this pick, as the first overall pick is reasonably going to get more coverage than the 35th overall pick, but it is worth mentioning that Rooker has performed well in the minors so far and currently ranks as the organization’s 7th overall prospect.

Now over a year removed from the 2017 draft, let’s take a look back. Lewis performed well, perhaps not spectacular in 2017, slashing .279/.381/.407 in 54 total games across rookie ball and A-level. Then, after being assigned to A-level Cedar Rapids to start the 2018 season, Lewis exploded. In 75 games, he slashed .315/.368/.485 with 23 doubles, 9 home runs, 53 RBI, 22 steals, and 24 walks to 49 strikeouts. He truly did do it all. He even earned a promotion to A+ Fort Myers, where he played in 46 games. His slash line cooled off in A+, dropping to .255/.327/.399, but he still filled out the stat sheet with 6 doubles, 3 triples, 5 home runs, and 6 steals.

Perhaps the most impressive part of it all was that Lewis is only 19 years old. That’s nearly 2 and a half years younger than the average hitter in A-ball where he put up incredible numbers, and nearly 3 and a half years younger than the average hitter in A+. 2018 was impressive enough that he is already considered one of the best prospects in baseball. MLB Pipeline has him ranked as the 10th overall prospect in the game, and he was ranked 16th overall in Baseball Prospectus’ midseason update. He figures to slot even higher next year thanks to a strong 2018 season combined with several guys ahead of him likely graduating to the MLB early next season. Not bad for someone not yet 20 years old.

So how have the other potential picks done? Let’s take a look.

Hunter Greene

It’s been a bit of a struggle for Greene. He only pitched 4.1 innings in 2017 across 3 games, and he gave up 6 runs. On the hitting side, he totaled 30 at bats and just 7 hits, including 2 doubles and a triple, no walks, and 8 strikeouts, good for a .233 batting average. Heading into the 2018 season, the Reds announced they would have him focus solely on pitching, rather than having him both pitch and hit. The good came with the bad for Greene. In 18 starts, he racked up a highly impressive 89 strikeouts to 23 walks in just 68.1 innings pitched, but he also gave up 34 earned runs, setting his ERA at 4.48 for the season.

Then, in early August it was revealed that Greene would be shut down for the season following a UCL strain. Surgery has not been recommended for Greene at this point, but the UCL is the ligament associated with every pitcher’s worst nightmare, Tommy John surgery. That alone suggest the Twins may have dodged a bullet. Greene currently ranks 18th overall on MLB Pipeline’s top prospect chart, and 45th on Baseball Prospectus’ list.

It’s also worth noting that while Lewis did have an expensive signing bonus, the Minnesota Twins were able to save roughly $500,000 compared to what Greene signed for. Not a massive difference, but not negligible either. That’s not to mention that the Reds avoided losing out on Greene entirely by a matter of minutes. Had the two sides not been able to come to an agreement even for just several minutes later than they did, the deadline to meet an agreement would have passed and the Reds would have come away with nothing from their 2nd overall pick. All in all, at this point it’s safe to say that picking Lewis over Greene is turning out to be a great choice so far.

Brendan McKay

Let’s shift focus to another of the options for #1, Brendan McKay, who ended up being selected 4th overall by the Tampa Bay Rays. Unlike the Reds with Greene, the Rays have been content to let McKay get significant game time as both a hitter and a pitcher. The hitting results haven’t been too impressive yet. In 92 games in 2017 and 2018, including stints at the rookie ball, A-, A, and A+ levels, McKay is hitting just .221, though he does have a solid OBP of .361, likely thanks to a strong K:BB of 85:65.

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McKay has been more successful as a pitcher, through. In a total of 98.1 innings, again across rookie ball, A-, A, and A+ in 2017 and 2018, he’s put together a great 2.29 ERA. Perhaps the most impressive pitching statistic McKay claims is an amazing K:BB rate of 124 to 19. He is several years older than Lewis, currently 22, but that much control is pretty impressive no matter how old you are. In terms of prospect rankings, McKay is currently ranked 29th on MLB Pipeline and 22nd on Baseball Prospectus. The future is bright for McKay, but at this point Lewis does seem to be the better pick. Lewis ranks significantly higher on the top prospect lists than McKay. It’s also worth noting that pitching prospects tend to be much more volatile than hitters. It’s very common in today’s day and age for pitchers to be hit with Tommy John surgery that sets them back roughly a full year. There’s no indication that McKay is at any risk of that, but generally speaking, there is less risk with hitting prospects than pitching prospects.

Kyle Wright

Lastly, let’s look at Kyle Wright. Wright fell to #5 in the draft going to the Atlanta Braves. He progressed very quickly through the minors, and actually made his major league debut on September 4th. He only has 5 innings pitched in the bigs, though, so we’ll focus on his minor league stats to get a better idea of how he’s done. Wright, though not a hitter, has stats similar to McKay’s as a pitcher. In 2017 Wright pitched just 17 innings across rookie ball and A+, but then in 2018 jumped all the way to AA to start the year before earning promotions to AAA and then the MLB. In total in AA and AA this year, he pitched 138 innings to an ERA of 3.91. Like McKay, he’s shown great control over his pitches, racking up 133 strikeouts to 51 walks. Again, he’s only pitched 5 innings in the MLB, but so far, so good, giving up just 2 hits and 1 run.

Wright is a bit difficult to say how good he’s been given than his performance has varied at different levels (3.70 ERA with AA before being promoted to AAA and totaling a 2.51 ERA). It is impressive that he’s already reached the MLB, as not many draft picks do that in less than 2 full seasons of professional baseball. Circling back to the prospect rankings, MLB Pipeline ranks him 24th overall, whereas Baseball Prospectus has him 38th.

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In summary

Again, it’s still very early for all of these guys, and things could chance significantly in the years moving forward. But, for now, Lewis looks like the clear best player of the main guys being considered for the Minnesota Twins’ first overall pick in 2017. He put together a fantastic season this year and ranks higher than Greene, McKay, and Wright on most all top prospect risks. Falvey and Levine were under a lot of pressure to make the right choice with their #1 selection, and so far it appears they did just that.

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Minnesota Twins draft decisions looking good early on under Falvey and Levine