Puckett’s Pond’s Minnesota Twins 2018 Top-40 Prospects: #1-5

The Minnesota Twins have an exciting farm system. Here is our top 40 ranking of the Twins prospects as we continue onto prospects numbers 1-5.

The Minnesota Twins have had a disappointing 2018 season. Out of survival, we as fans have to find something to root for when our teams are not performing well. Which causes us to often then turn our attention to what is next for our favorite team, for baseball that means the prospects in the minors. That special attention gives added intrigue to this series which takes a unique look at the Twins current crop of prospects as we at Puckett’s Pond put on our talent evaluating caps to rank the Twins prospects.

What else makes this not only an intriguing but also an exciting group to rank is that the Twins have made several additions to their prospect ranks during their sell-off at the trade deadline. All those new faces are players we haven’t gotten much of a look and learning about those new players can always be a fun exercise as well.

This list is a group effort by several writers here at Puckett’s Pond. Know that we each have our own opinion on players but have put our rankings together to compile this list. Some or all of us will have ranked certain players in a much different place than where they will land on this ranking. That is just how this sort of exercise works.

With that here is the final instalment of our rankings as we look at what is now often regarded as a top-10 farm system in baseball. We have already covered prospects numbers 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35 and 36-40. Here are numbers 1-5 of the Puckett’s Pond prospect rankings.

No. 5 Trevor Larnach, OF, Cedar Rapids Kernels

Nate’s Rank: 7,  Gary’s Rank: 4

Trevor Larnach was the Twins first-round choice, 20th overall, in the 2018 draft. After playing a large role in Oregon State’s College World Series championship the 21-year-old signed for a $2.55 million bonus, which was $570,000 under the slot value of the pick.  He was assigned to Rookie League Elizabethton on July 18.

Larnach, who had previously been drafted by San Diego in the 40th round of the 2015 draft saw his draft ranking shoot up during a breakout 2018 campaign with the Beavers that included a .327 batting average, OPS of 1.081, and 53 strikeouts versus 45 walks. The kicker was his emerging power. The 6′ 2″, 210-pound junior hit 17 homes runs, after hitting only three as a sophomore in only 20 fewer plate appearances.

MLB.com placed Larnach #26 on their draft list, while USA Today judged him at #14. The latter had this to say:

Larnach’s power numbers have gone way up this season and he is far and away the team’s leading home run hitter (17 entering the week). Larnach was originally projected as a second or third rounder, but his success this year has elevated his stock. He will be drafted for his power, poise, and polish at the plate. Could go: Anywhere from picks 20-30, but could come off the board earlier

FanGraphs ranked Larnach for the first time in early June as the #102 draft prospect.                               In early August, their Marc Hulet ranked him #6 among Twin’s prospects. Today Larnach is not only listed as the #4 prospect on the team, FanGraphs rates him the #92 prospect in the game. He is rising so fast in the rankings that his current tool numbers are outdated, certainly in regards to his hitting.

Team Rank: 4 Overall Rank: 92 ETA: 2020   Hit GamePower RawPower Speed Field Throws Future Value 35 / 50 35 / 60 65 / 65 45 / 45 40 / 45 55 / 55 50

Larnach strong play in E-Town made for a short stay in short-season baseball. His slash line in 61 at-bats was .311/.413/.492. an OPS of .904, two home runs, 16 RBI’s, and 11 strikeouts against 10 walks.

The left-handed hitting right fielder has continued producing since his August 7th promotion to Low A Cedar Rapids. In 75 at-bats, Larnach posts a line of .293/.338/.480, with a .818 OPS, two home runs, eight RBI’s, and 11 K’s versus five walks. For the total season, he has yet to commit an error while picking two outfield assists.

As I wrote here following his debut with the Kernels, Larnach’s speed projects him best in left field where his ability to hit to all fields with emerging power, along with his knack for drawing walks will be the key to his long-term success.

Larnach appears to be on pace to reach Chattanooga at some point in the 2019 season. How he fares there should help clarify whether or not Larnach is on the fast-track to Target Field as early as 2020.

No. 4  Nick Gordon, 2B/SS, Rochester Red Wings

Nate’s Rank: 4,  Gary’s Rank: 5

Nick Gordon was the Twins first-round choice, 5th overall, in the 2014 draft. He agreed to the signing bonus value assigned to his draft slot of $3,851,000 and received an added scholarship incentive that upped the value of the deal to approximately $4 million. Gordon had committed to Florida State, but the expectation was that he would go professional.

Baseball America wrote this about Gordon prior to the draft:

Opinions on his defense differ, ranging from average to well above-average. He has soft hands, easy actions and natural instincts for the position. Gordon has the best arm in the high school class and it is at least plus. Despite being a plus runner in the 60, Gordon’s speed plays closer to average out of the box. Scouts have conviction about Gordon’s makeup, which is among the best in the draft, and say he has top-of-charts instincts. Gordon also has a solid backup option as a pitcher who can run his fastball up to 94 with an above-average curveball.

The 6 foot, 160 pound Gordon has made a steady climb up the organizational ladder essentially moving up one level each season. In terms of age, the 22-year-old has always been young for the levels he has played in. The largest extremes on both ends came this season where he was 1.9 years younger than the average Southern League position player while at AA Chattanooga, to his present location at AAA Rochester where the differential is 4.5 years.

Gordon was stationed almost exclusively at shortstop his first three seasons. His 2014 slash line in Rookie League Elizabethton was .294/.333 /.366, with a fielding percentage of .964. His 2015 in Lower A Level Cedar Rapids line was .277 /.336/.360, with a .966 fielding percentage. He hit .291/.335/.386 at A+ Fort Myers in 2016, with a .952 fielding percentage. He was then selected to play in the Arizona Fall League where he put up a very impressive line of .346/.418 /.444 in competition against players averaging 2.3 years his senior. In that three-year period, Gordon collected 242 strikeouts against 61 walks in 1,258 total at-bats.

Gordon released his first rap album, “I Do It All” earlier this year, but baseball is his priority:

The multi-talented youngster is well aware that mixing music and sports can make for a tricky balance, particularly in terms of image. But he doesn’t anticipate any issues. Not only does Gordon consider himself “a baseball player first,” he’s “never been one to lead a lifestyle that isn’t appropriate,” nor does he feel a need to “go out there and rap about things I don’t do.

Not surprisingly, as the son of former big league pitcher Tom Gordon and brother of the Mariners’ OF/2B Dee Gordon, Nick is a fundamentally sound player. Substance over flash. His power is the only tool that isn’t rated at least average. While his throwing arm is the standout tool, average range, along with the draft acquisition of the young star shortstop Royce Lewis saw Gordon seeing time at second base beginning in 2017.

Gordon had a great start to the 2017 season for AA Chattanooga appearing in both the Futures Game and in the Southern League All-Star game. He finished the first half with a line of  .315/.376/.504, followed by a second-half line of  .221/.304/.305. His final slash was still a respectable .270/.341/.408.

Baseball Prospectus ranked Gordon #33 among MLB prospects in their Midseason Top 50. They note that 2018 draftees and eligible players on major league rosters were not included.

Why he’ll succeed: He’s got a broad base of tools to fall back on, and has showed an impressive ability to adjust to his level over time. His plus arm should help him stick at the six. Why he might fail: Sometimes a step back in any particular tool from the guys who have a broad base can wreck the profile. If the hit tool doesn’t play to its capacity, he could find it hard to be an everyday guy, even with his up-the-middle defensive profile.

Gordon started the 2018 season back in Chattanooga and lit it up in his second go-round hitting  .333/.381/.525 with an OPS of .906. Promoted to AAA Rochester on May 22, things have not gone so well for the young middle infielder. He has struggled to a line of .212/.260/.281, including 77 strikeouts versus 21 walks in 363 at-bats. It should be noted that Gordon is the baby of the Red Wing position players, nearly two years younger than our #20 prospect Lamont Wade. While his performance for the Red Wings is a setback, it seems safe to say that he will adjust.

Coming into each of the last four campaigns, Gordon has been a solid Top-100 MLB selection and Top-5 Twins prospect in all the major pre-season lists. His second half difficulties the past two years have been a subject of discussion, including suggestions that Gordon lacks the drive or stamina for the long haul of professional level baseball. But his second-half production didn’t suffer in his first three seasons and the jump to AAA at the tender of age 22 can best explain the problems this season. While the ceiling for this left side hitter is debatable, his high floor almost guarantees a future starting role at some time in the future.

No. 3  Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Fort Myers Miracle

Nate’s Rank: 3,  Gary’s Rank: 3

The Twins hit it out of the park when they signed international pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol at age 16 for just $150,000 in 2015. The Venezuelan right-hander was assigned to the Dominican Summer League where he pitched only 11 innings, posting a 2.45 ERA, with 17 strikeouts and one walk before suffering a tear to his right ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) which required Tommy John surgery.

The injury sidelined Graterol not only for the bulk of his first season as a professional but also the entire 2016 season. Instead of it being a major setback, he turned lemons into lemonade.

Rehabbing both arm and body with great determination, Graterol returned in 2017 much bigger and throwing much harder. Phil Miller laid out the details last October in Baseball America which includes a quote from Twins VP of Player Personnel Mike Radcliff (Subscription required).

Graterol didn’t cost the Twins much when they signed him as a 16-year-old in 2015, mostly because “he was just a really skinny guy throwing about 87-88 (mph),” Radcliff said. “We liked his pitches, but he’s one of those guys who you just can’t predict a transformation like this.” The “transformation”—surgery, maturity and 60 pounds of muscle—has produced, after missing all of 2016, a pitcher who occasionally hit 100 mph this season at Rookie-level Elizabethton.

Listed at 170 pounds at the time the injury, though his stats now show his weight at 180, Graterol looks every bit his reported 225 pounds. And it’s a muscular build around his 6′, 1″ frame, better suited to the strong power aspect of his game.

While restricted to pitch count and innings limits, Graterol managed to conquer the rookie leagues in 2017. Starting out with the GCL Twins, 2.5 years younger than the league average for pitchers, he put up a 1.40 ERA in 19.1 innings, ten hits, 21 strikeouts and four walks, with a WHIP of 0.72. Graterol went on to pitch 20.2 innings for Elizabethton, giving up 16 hits, striking out 24, walking nine, for an ERA of 3.92 and put himself high on the Twins prospect radar.

Bumped up to Class A Cedar Rapids to start the year, Graterol dominated Midwest league hitters with a 2.18 ERA in 41.1 innings, giving up 30 hits, 41 strikeouts, nine walks, and a WHIP of 0.94. Assigned to Class A+ Fort Myers in late June, posts a 3.38 ERA over 56 innings, surrendering 59 hits, with 52 strikeouts, and 19 walks against league pitchers averaging four years his senior.

Graterol’s performance in 2018 has earned him ranking in the midseason Top 100 MLB Prospect lists, and he continues to climb. MLB.com now has him sitting at #78 overall; Baseball America (subscription required) had Graterol at #92 in June, and FanGraphs ranks him #99.

Baseball Prospectus ranked Graterol #46 among MLB prospects in their Midseason Top 50. They note that 2018 draftees and eligible players on major league rosters were not included. Their comments:

Why he’ll succeed: An upper-90s fastball will grab anyone’s attention. Throw in two distinct breaking balls and well, baby, you got a stew going. The slider is the better of the two, and has flashed plus, and his changeup has even earned above-average marks at times. That’s a lot of good pitches. Why he might fail: At 6-foot-1, he’s not the tallest guy in the world, and sometimes high-octane arms that lack plane end up in the bullpen. Also, he’s a pitcher.

Graterol just turned 20 years of age this past Sunday. He will likely be promoted to AA Chattanooga where he will again be over four years younger than the competition. If healthy his workload will rise from the 100 or so innings he will pitch this season, but there will likely still be restrictions in place to protect his golden arm. He had two stints on the 7-day disabled list but neither was cause to worry about that arm. One of the stays involved a hand injury from sleeping on it the wrong way. Nonetheless, his health will be a special concern for the time being.

Brusdar Graterol has the chops to be a future ace for the Twins. There is a lot to be excited about. That said, projecting stardom for a 20-year-old pitcher is dicey. With 159 strikeouts against 39 walks in 142.2 innings, Graterol has already shown excellent power and control. The key to success will be developing a strong command of the strike zone.

No. 2 Alex Kiriloff, OF, Fort Myers Miracle

Nate’s Rank: 2,  Gary’s Rank: 2

20-year-old Alex Kirilloff was the Twins 1st round choice, 15th overall, in the 2016 draft. The Plum, Pennsylvania high school product signed for the pick’s slotted bonus of $2,817,000, foregoing a commitment to Liberty University. He was MLB.com’s  #18  pre-draft prospect.

Kirilloff was assigned to rookie league Elizabethton following the draft. In 55 games, he slashed .306/.341/.454, with seven home runs in 216 at-bats as an 18-year-old, and was named Appalachian League Player of the Year, establishing himself as a hot prospect, ranking #98 among all prospects going into the 2017 season.

Following the 2016 season, it was discovered that Kirilloff had suffered a complete tear to the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) of his left elbow which required Tommy John surgery in March of 2017. Sidelined for the season, the left-handed hitter believes that the year off turned out to be a blessing in disguise:

“Not having to travel this year has set a great foundation for my marriage, and being married at a young age, I think that’s gone above and beyond where it could have gone if I was traveling and busy the whole year,” he said. “I think just watching baseball from a different perspective this entire year instead of playing it, I’ve learned stuff about the game and my maturity and mentality and hitting and everything.

The Twins were aggressive in promoting Kirilloff directly to full-season Class A Cedar Rapids to start the 2018 campaign. The 6′ 2″, 195-pound right fielder didn’t disappoint, posting a slash line of  .333/.391/.607, with an OPS of .999, 13 home runs, and 56 RBI’s in 252 at-bats over 65 games. That performance earned him a June promotion to Advanced-A Fort Myers to compete against players averaging 2.4 years his senior.

Kirilloff has exceeded all expectations for the Miracle, with a line of .370/.394/.546, 940 OPS, five home runs, and 42 RBI’s in 238 at-bats over 59 games. He was selected to appear in the Futures Game during All-Star week where he went 2-2 with a run scored.

The already hot-hitting Kirilloff caught fire in late July. He made Baseball America’s Prospects Hot Sheet  (subscription required) for July 23-29, going 15 for 27, with 6 doubles and a home run, driving in eight runners. Baseball America had this to say about their 88th ranked mid-season prospect:

The Scoop: Talk about making up for lost time. After the Pittsburgh-bred outfielder missed the 2017 season with Tommy John surgery, Kirilloff has quickly and loudly shown the baseball world what it was missing. He’s destroyed at both levels of Class A ball this year and has been brilliant from day one. He leads the minor leagues in total bases, is one extra-base hit off the lead in that category and is seventh in the minors in OPS. Add a Futures Game appearance to the mix and you’ve got one of the very best years in the minor leagues.

The rankings of Kirilloff have skyrocketed throughout the year. MLB.com currently has him at #30; FanGraphs, #67 and climbing; with Baseball Prospectus placing him at #43.

Kirilloff has quelled worries about the TJ surgery affecting his ability to handle the duties of a right fielder. His arm is rated from average to above average. For the season, he has committed four errors while collecting seven outfield assists and a .979 fielding percentage.

Alex Kirilloff his a pure hitter with the strength to drive the ball to all fields. He has hit 18 home runs this year, a good sign that he is developing the power to fit well as a major league right fielder. The key to his best success will be in continuing to project that power as he advances. Kirilloff should start next season in AA Chattanooga. If he continues at close to the pace he is setting, Kirilloff could conceivably get a September taste of Target Field as a 21-year-old.