Minnesota Twins: Can Polanco’s return jumpstart the Twin’s offense?
Minnesota Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco returns this week from his 80-game suspension. How have others performed right off similar suspensions?
Minnesota Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco is eligible to return from his 80 game suspension on July 2, two days before his 25th birthday. With just a few weeks before the non-waivers trading deadline and eight games behind Cleveland for their only shot at post-season, the Twins need to get on a hot streak.
If his 10-day rehab assignment in Fort Myers and Rochester goes well, Polanco could provide the spark needed to ignite a moribund offense that ranks in the back half of the league in every main category save doubles where they are third with 154. With that in mind, using 6 games as a baseline here is a look into Polanco´s first games as a starter in 2016 and 2017, as well as how other position players came out of the gate following their PED suspensions.
The Twins went 10-2 in Polanco´s two initial 6 game periods as a regular
Polanco first came up with the Minnesota Twins in September of 2014 but was used sporadically until his recall in late July of 2016 following the trade of Eduardo Nunez to the Giants. Polanco went 9 for 23, with 3 doubles, a triple, 4 RBI’s, 4 Runs, 1 stolen base, and 1 error in his first 6 games primarily starting at third base. The Twins won 5 of those 6 games. From his call-up through August, he held a .322 average and .782 OPS before dropping to a .215 average and .716 OPS in September.
The Twins began the 2017 season with Polanco at shortstop. He went 7 for 22, 2 doubles, HR, 4 RBI’s, 3 runs, 1 error, as the team got off to a 5-1 start. Polanco had another big August, hitting for a .373 average and 1.099 OPS before falling back to a .260 average and .768 OPS for September. His season line was .256/.313/.410 with a .723 OPS. Over half of his career playing time has come in the months of August and September.
July has not been at all kind to Polanco, where he holds a .132 batting average and .376 OPS, and if you take out the two July games from his 2016 call-up, the line drops to an average of .102 and OPS of .312. But that´s after a mere 69 plate appearances. It shouldn’t be a concern.
How well did the past PED violators do in their mid-season returns
The next three pages chart the performances of a dozen position players and their first 6 games coming back from similar mid-season suspensions to Polanco’s. These players combined to go 64 for 238, or a .269 batting average. Aside from Mike Morse, all the players were at least four years older than Polanco, with only Palmeiro and Ramirez older than 33.
Starling Marte, OF, Pirates (Age 28-Suspended 80 games on 4/18/17) Marte returned to hit .333 (9 for 27) in his first 6 games back and raised his overall numbers from prior to the suspension.
Dee Gordon, 2B, Marlins (Age 28, 80 games, 4/29/16) Gordon went 7 for 23 in his first 6 games back and his stats were virtually the same before and after his suspension.
Chris Colabello, 1B, Blue Jays (Age 32, 80 games, 4/22/16) Hit for a .321 average and .886 OPS in 2015 and managed 2 singles in the final 29 at-bats of his major league career following the suspension.
Abraham Almonte, OF, Indians (Age 27, 80 games, 2/26/16) 2-15 with 5 K´s and a walk in the 6 games. His batting average stayed the same, .264, but his OPS dropped from .776 in 2015 to .695 in 2016.
Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres (Age 27, 25 games, 7/23/14) 4 for 14 in 6 games. His 2014 line dropped from a .267 average and .717 OPS pre-suspension to end up with a .235 average and .621 OPS. The aforementioned Almonte got the lion’s share of centerfield duty during Maybin’s suspension.
Francisco Cervelli, C, Yankees (Age 27, 50 games, 8/5/13) 8 for 19, a double, 4 K´s, 3 walks, a passed ball, and caught 2 of 3 attempted base stealers in 6 games. Cervelli appeared in only 17 games in 2013, accumulating 52 at-bats, finishing with a .269 average and a .877 OPS. Aside from the 6-game hot streak upon his return, he went 6 for 34.
Jhonny Peralta, OF, Tigers (Age 31, 50 games, 8/5/13) An All-Star with a .303 average and .815 OPS with 11 home runs. 9-20 2 doubles and a home run when his 2013 season ended. In 2014, he returned to hit .263/.779, 21 HRs, and finished 14th in NL MVP voting.
Nelson Cruz, DH, Rangers (Age 33, 50 games, 8/5/13) Was hitting for a .266 average with a .833 OPS and 27 HRs when dinged with his suspension. Cruz left with a bang in Texas, returned with a bang with Baltimore in 2014. His slash lines only slightly improved after coming back but he hit 40 or more HRs in each of the following 3 seasons. For the record, he became eligible on the final day of the Rangers’ season and went 0-4 with a K.
Manny Ramirez, OF/DH, Dodgers/Rays (Age 37/39, 50 and 100 games, 5/7/09 and 4/8/11) Ramirez had a batting average of .348 with a 1.133 OPS at the time of his first suspension. .He went 6 for 18, 2 HRs, 2 K´s and 3 walks in his first 6 games back, and finished the season with a 290 average and .949 OPS. After a short retirement following his second suspension, Ramirez signed with Tampa Bay. The return on a $2 million dollar contract was one hit in 17 at-bats over 5 games.
Mike Morse, SS, Mariners (Age 23, 10 games, 8/7/05) Rookie Morse had a .287 batting average and .748 OPS. He was 4 for 21 with 4 K´s in his next 6 games. Finished with a .278 averager and .718 OPS. In his time at Triple-A Tacoma he hit for a batting average of .253 with a .723 OPS at AAA Tacoma. Morse had three seasons with 100 games or more in his 13 year major league career.
Rafael Palmeiro,1B, Orioles (Age 40 10 games, 8/1/05) Palmeiro gets a mention even though it was his final season. Batting for an average of .280 with a .826 OPS when suspended. He went 2 for 22 with a double in his first 6 games back and finished with a .266 average and .786 OPS. Palmeiro´s career ended with a torrent of boo’s to the point where he tried wearing earplugs. “Palmeiro, who entered last night with 3,020 career hits and 569 homers and is a potential Hall of Fame member, was booed loudly in each of his four at-bats in his first appearance in Toronto since returning from a 10-day suspension Aug. 11 for violating Major League Baseball’s steroid policy.”
Alex Sanchez, OF, Rays, Giants (Age 28, 10 games, 4/3/05) The first to be suspended for PEDs is the last on this list. He went 11 for 24, 1 2B, 1 K, 2 out of 3 in stolen base attempts, but was picked off twice in his first 6 games back. Sanchez was hitting for a .346 average and .839 OPS in 133 at-bats when he was waived by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and picked up by the Giants in late June. Sanchez had a .256 average and 614 OPS in 19 games for the Giants. While he could hit, his defense was remarkably bad. He committed 6 errors in 320 innings that season. Sanchez was granted free agency at the end of 2005, and spent the next 5 seasons in the minors. His major league career ended at age 28.
Others of note
These players all returned the year after their suspensions and started their comebacks after spring training.
Everth Cabrera, SS, Padres (Age 26, 50 games, 8/5/13) An All-Star, with a .284 average and .716 OPS, and leading the NL in steals when suspended. Those numbers dropped to a .232 average and .517 OPS in 2014. That led to Cabrera being non-tendered by the Padres, when he then signed with Baltimore and appeared in his final 29 major league games at age 28.
Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers (Age 29, 65 games, 7/22/13) Braun had led the NL in HRs and OPS (41, .987) in 2012 and held a .298 average and .869 OPS with 9 HR in 61 games when suspended. He dropped to a .266 average and .777 OPS, 19 home runs in 135 games in 2014, but picked it up again in 2015 and 2016.
Carlos Ruiz, C, Phillies (Age 33, 25 games, November 2012) Coming off an All-Star 2012 season with a batting average of .325 and OPS of .925, 16 HRs, Ruiz came back down to earth in 2013. He hit for an average of .268 and a .688 OPS, with his HR output tanking from then on. Ruiz finished with career averages of a .264 batting average and .742 OPS
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Yasmani Grandal, C, Padres (Age 23, 50 games, November 2012) A top prospect playing in the Futures Game prior to being called up in 2012, Grandal´s first three major league hits were HRs. He finished the year at .297/.394/.469 and a .863 OPS. Returning in July of 2013, he went 2 for 24 in his first 6 games. Grandal would go on to hit for a .216 average and .693 that season. For his career, he currently has a batting average of .239 paired with a .771.
Melky Cabrera, OF, Giants (Age 28, 50 games, 8/15/12) An All-Star in 2012 hitting for a batting average of .346 with a .906 OPS. His suspension ended during the course of the Giants World Series run, but the team didn’t add him to the playoff roster. Cabrera would go on to sign with Toronto in 2013 and slash .279/.322/.360 with a .682 OPS.
Marlon Byrd, OF, Cubs/Red Sox (Age 34, 50 games, 6/25/12) Having a poor season while hitting .210 with a .488 OPS, Byrd had been released by Boston a month prior to his suspension. He signed with the Mets in 2013 and was later traded to the Pirates where he finished the season at batting .291 with a .847 OPS.
In short, the immediate performance of players returning from PED suspensions appears to be a mixed bag. Collabello and Palmeiro went a combined 4 for 51, while Peralta, Cervelli, and Sanchez picked up 28 hits in 63 at-bats. Overall, I didn’t see a notable unexpected difference in hitting or power from these players in the charted 6-game span nor in their later stats.
Next: Twins could find value in trading for Keon Broxton
While history suggests that the early performance of returning players is probably as predictably unpredictable as you’d find in a random mid-season 6 game record of a dozen similarly skilled players, Polanco could well be an outlier on the positive side. He has hit for both average and power in his rehab, and the Twins have gone 5-1 in his two previous season debuts as a starter. Jorge may provide the last best chance for the Twins offense to start and maintain the winning streak needed to get back into contention.