Examining the Minnesota Twins upcoming rotation conundrum

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The Minnesota Twins will have some difficult decisions to make toward the end of the month and into the Summer. With two pitchers preparing to rejoin the team soon, somebody will be left out of the rotation.

Ervin Santana and Trevor May are both nearing a return to the Minnesota Twins. May has been stretching himself out during his Minor League rehab stint and Santana should rejoin the rotation sometime in June.

Excluding Fernando Romero, the Twins currently have three starting pitchers consistently getting the job done. Lance Lynn has struggled, which we’ll examine more in-depth later, and needs to show signs of life soon for Minnesota.

The question most Twins fans have is this, who will actually be in the rotation when everybody gets healthy? As you will realize while you read this article, the answer to that question is going to prove to be very complicated. However, Puckett’s Pond is here to at least give it the old puncher’s try and provide some semblance of clarity.

One lock for the rotation

Without question, Kyle Gibson‘s place in the rotation is secure. Gibby has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers and has earned his spot moving forward. The numbers won’t blow you away with Gibson but his output has been consistent since day one.

For the season, Gibson has a 3.96 ERA through his first nine starts. Gibby has managed a career-high 9.9 K/9 to start this season and has 55 strikeouts through 50 innings pitched. Gibby has allowed only four home runs while compiling a 1-2 record to this point of the season.

However, his home/road splits do raise some concern for the Minnesota Twins. Gibson is 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA in 31 innings pitched away from Target Field with a solid 10.7 K/9. However, within the friendly confines of his home ballpark, Gibby has been brutal. He is 0-1 with a ghastly 6.16 ERA and his K/9 drops down to 8.5. Gibson has also surrendered three of his four home runs while starting in Minneapolis.

However, the number that points to this being a minor bump in the road for Gibby is his batting average on balls in play. He has a .185 batting average on balls in play (BAbip) during road starts while his BAbip at home is .393. That number will surely come down as Gibson makes more starts at home. Hitters won’t remain this lucky against him all season and Gibson has shown that he’s an above-average starting pitcher in MLB.

Gibson will surely be in the rotation as this season keeps moving along. However, there are four other spots available, and these are the only two other pitchers who have earned their place in the rotation.

Jake Odorizzi

Jake Odorizzi was the Opening Day starter for Minnesota and showed Twins fans why the team traded for him. He had seven strikeouts and allowed zero earned runs while pitching six innings that day. Although he didn’t factor into the decision, Odorizzi gave fans reason for hope.

However, things did not stay that way for long for Odorizzi as the calendar flipped to April. He allowed 13 earned runs while pitching only 20 innings during his first four starts in April.

However, since his April 28th start against Cincinnati, he has been stellar. Odorizzi has pitched 28 innings with 31 strikeouts and only nine walks. He has only allowed six earned runs giving him a 1.93 ERA with a solid .218 batting average against.

Odorizzi’s has earned his place in the Minnesota Twins rotation. Without Odorizzi, this season would look even worse than it already does. Without question, his recent performance guarantees his place in this rotation, leading us to the obvious lock at the top of the rotation.

Jose Berríos

I don’t mean any disrespect to Jose Berríos for not talking about him right off the bat. It’s obvious that he will be toward the top of the Twins rotation, not just for this season, but for the foreseeable future.

Berríos has had his struggles at times during the 2018 season. However, he has the type of raw “stuff” that Minnesota Twins fans haven’t witnessed since Francisco Liriano possessed. On top of that, Berríos has shown glimpses of the greatness that he can achieve in the future.

When he’s right, Berríos is painting the corners with his hitter and keeping hitting off-balance with his breaking ball. Berríos is just wild enough to keep hitters honest on the inside corner and has shown his future is bright in MLB.

He has 61 1/3 innings pitched with a 3.82 ERA during his first 10 starts this season. Berríos has walked only 12 batters with a 4.94 K/BB ratio and IS the future for this rotation. Opponents are batting only .196 with against Berríos while only managing a .228 batting average on balls in play.

Berríos will be the pitcher leading this organization into the future. Next, we’ll take a look at a pitcher making a name for himself, and another hoping to turn things around.

Fernando Romero

The hype machine was in overdrive following the debut of Twins rookie Fernando Romero. He pitched 16 scoreless innings with 20 strikeouts and nine walks to begin his MLB career. Overall, Romero has provided a boost to the Minnesota Twins rotation. However, the question remains, has Romero done enough to stay in the Majors after everybody gets healthy?

Minnesota has two pitchers currently working their way back on Minor League rehab assignment. One of those players, Ervin Santana, is all but guaranteed a place in the rotation upon his return. Unfortunately, on the field performance will probably have little bearing on deciding Romero’s immediate future in the Twin Cities.

That being said, Romero has done more than enough to warrant more opportunities in MLB. He has had only one “blow up” start, allowing four runs (three earned) against Milwaukee recently and has a 1.66 ERA through his first four MLB starts.

However, we have already covered the three virtual locks for the rotation, leaving only two open slots. As I’ve previously stated, one of those spots will be earmarked for Santana. Although I hate to admit this, it will be difficult for Minnesota to not have the next pitcher on our list in the rotation. Unfortunately, that likely leaves Romero headed back to Triple-A.

Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn has been abysmal on the mound for the Minnesota Twins far this season. His 2018 season got off to a rocky start as he sat at home waiting for a contract while teams were reporting for Spring Training.

Lynn didn’t sign with the Twins until early March and it appears that missing most of Spring Training has had an immense negative effect on his performance. Lynn pitched 23 1/3 innings with 26 strikeouts and an 8.37 ERA through his first five starts. The real problem for Lynn during that span was his inability to command the baseball.

Lynn walked a mind-blowing 23 batters while coughing up five home runs during that span. The right-hander looked nothing like the pitcher he was during previous seasons for the St. Louis Cardinals. That’s about as bad as a starting pitcher can be through the first month of the season.

He didn’t fare too much better as the calendar flipped to May. He pitched 13 2/3 innings, including a season-low three during his May 16th start, through his first three starts this month. Lynn cut his walks down to only six while striking out 15 but still looked like a wasted investment for the Twins.

However, Lynn showed signs of life during his last start and it couldn’t have happened at a better time. He pitched a season-high 6 2/3 scoreless innings while striking out four and walking only one batter. For the season, Lynn is 2-4 with a 6.34 ERA and a measly 1.5 K/BB ratio in 44 innings pitched.

Lynn will have to show manager Paul Molitor that he belongs in the rotation as we move into the Summer. Minnesota has two starters rejoining the rotation soon and Lynn’s job should be in jeopardy. Let’s take a look at those two pitchers coming off of the DL soon.

Trevor May

It has been 740 days since Trevor May has appeared in an MLB game. Back then, he was pitching out of the bullpen before suffering an elbow injury. However, it seems the Minnesota Twins want to see what he can do in the rotation again.

May struggled early in his career as a starting pitcher, forcing Minnesota to shift him to the bullpen during the 2015 season. The right-hander pitched in 10 games, nine starts, during his debut season in 2014. He amassed 45 2/3 innings pitched with a 7.88 ERA and a 2.00 K/BB ratio.

He made 15 starts to begin the 2016 season and the results weren’t much better. May pitched 80 1/3 innings with a 4.47 ERA while striking out 71 and walking 82 batters. Following his July 15th start against Cincinnati, May has pitched strictly out of the bullpen for the Twins.

The results were a lot better for May while coming out of the bullpen during the ’15 season. He appeared in 33 games out of the pen, striking out 39 and walking only eight batters with a 3.15 ERA. May followed that up with 42 2/3 innings pitched with a 5.27 ERA and a 3.53 K/BB ratio before his injury.

That was then, and this now. More than two years after his initial injury, May is just now working himself back into form. He has pitched 11 innings with a 1.273 WHIP and a 1.73 K/BB ratio during his first three starts.

Although he has been starting games during his rehab assignment, May’s best role is probably in the bullpen. As promising as his “stuff” has always been, he hasn’t shown enough to push anybody out of the rotation discussion. That brings us to a potential game changer working his way back to rejoin the Minnesota Twins rotation.

Ervin Santana

We’ve recently covered Ervin Santana‘s first start during his rehab assignment here, so we won’t look into that very much. Instead, we’ll focus more on what makes Santana so important for the Twins success.

Santana has always been an innings eater, topping 200 innings pitched six times during his career. The Minnesota Twins haven’t received a lot of production from some members of the rotation and Santana coming back will push this group to another level.

Santana had arguably the best season of his career while pitching for the Minnesota Twins during the 2017 season. He had a league-best five complete games, to go along with three shutouts while pitching 211 innings. Santana was named to the All-Star team for only the second time of his career during the ’17 season. He also finished the season seventh in the Cy Young Award voting last year.

Santana’s presence has been missed to begin this season. Jake Odorizzi has proven worth the cost to acquire him and is firmly part of this rotation. However, the front office spent $12 million to sign Lance Lynn and that hasn’t worked out to this point of the season.

Minnesota needs Santana pitching to his capabilities every fifth day if they’re going to stay in the AL Central race. Jose Berrios has emerged as a frontline starting pitcher and Fernando Romero has shown flashes of the same potential.

With a healthy Santana, this rotation will be the strength of this team. This could be Santana’s final season in the Twin Cities. If that’s the case, these next three pitchers are definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Stephen Gonsalves

The future of the Minnesota Twins rotation is extremely bright. Fernando Romero is currently at the head of the line, but Stephen Gonsalves isn’t far behind. Ranked third in the Twins Minor League system, Gonsalves has excelled throughout his Minor League career.

The 23-year-old left-handed prospect is currently pitching for the Twins Triple-A affiliate the Rochester Red Wings. He doesn’t have the same “raw stuff” that Romero possesses, however, his future is just as bright. Gonsalves has four starts and 21 1/3 innings pitched since arriving in Triple-A during this season. He has a 1.77 ERA and a 3.00 K/BB ratio to go along with a very good 0.984 WHIP.

Gonsalves has the best chance to see time in the Majors of any pitching prospect in the Twins system. We’ve seen what Romero can do in MLB and soon Gonsalves will be joining him.

Zack Littell

Zack Littell is ranked 15th in the Twins Minor League system, per MLB Pipeline, and has a bright future ahead of him. The 22-year-old right-handed starter is enjoying his second stint in the Twins system and is knocking on the door of MLB.

He throws a low-90’s fastball with two above-average secondary pitches and has had consistent success in the Minors. Littell split time between the Twins and the New York Yankees system last season and finished with an impressive 19-1 cumulative record.

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Littell has 23 innings pitched across four appearances, three starts, for Triple-A Rochester during this season. With a 3.00 K/BB ratio and a 1.00 WHIP to go along with a 2.05 ERA, Littell looks ready for the next level.

Unfortunately for him, the Minnesota Twins have very solid depth in the rotation so he may have to wait until next season to get his chance. However, the Twins bullpen is currently a mess. Because of this, there’s always the possibility that Littell can come in and have an impact in that regard.

However, this isn’t the season that Littell makes his true impact in MLB. There are too many pitchers ahead of him in the pecking order so Littell will need to bide his time. In the meantime, Twins fans should feel pretty confident about the future of this team’s pitching staff.

Aaron Slegers

Aaron Slegers made his MLB debut during the 2017 season and it did not go well. He appeared in four games, three starts, and compiled a 6.46 ERA in 15 1/3 innings pitched for the Twins.

However, Slegers has turned the corner to start the 2018 season while pitching with Rochester. He has 50 1/3 innings pitched with a 1.98 ERA and a career-best 4.83 K/BB ratio across eight starts.

Minnesota has weaknesses within the pitching staff and Slegers has the ability to stabilize the situation. However, the Twins currently have a lot of quality arms in front of him in the system. For this reason, if Slegers has an impact during the 2018 season, it will most likely come from out of the bullpen.

Minnesota has plenty of arms capable of getting outs in the Major Leagues with a limited number of starts to go around. This is a great problem for any team in MLB to have, and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out through the course of this season.

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Let us know who you think should be in the Minnesota Twins rotation in the comments section. Also, you can always reach out via Facebook or Twitter. Reach out to me on my personal Twitter account @JohnGeigerII. You can also drop us a line @PuckettsPond and let us know what you think the Twins should do.

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