Minnesota Twins: 5 Things that need to go right for 2018 success
The Minnesota Twins have positioned themselves well to compete in 2018. There are still some things that need to break just right for a championship.
The Minnesota Twins have been hard at work this offseason to put their team in a place to be serious contenders in 2018. The Twins may have missed out on two of the big names they pursued heavily in Yu Darvish and Shohei Ohtani, but the Twins didn’t give up there. The front office was still able to come away with a roster that has added valuable pieces to an already strong core of players.
At the front end of the offseason was the bullpen makeover. The Twins signed their top three relievers as free agents this offseason as they signed Zach Duke, Fernando Rodney, and Addison Reed. That is a solid trio to add to last year’s emerging duo of Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers.
The Twins already were projected to have an exciting lineup. As the offseason went on and free agent prices did strange things, the Twins capitalized. That allowed the Twins to add Logan Morrison who should take a bulk of the DH at-bats this season. A considerable upgrade over the likes of Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas.
Lastly, the Twins starting rotation remained a huge question mark for much of the offseason. The trade for Jake Odorizzi and then the signing of Lance Lynn have helped build a solid rotation for the Twins. There is still some concern surrounding Ervin Santana as he makes his way back from a finger injury. Even lacking a true ace, the Twins rotation looks like one that is ready to compete in the American League in 2018.
As much as any team prepares in the offseason, the reality is you still need some things to break just right when it comes to the regular season and playoffs. Dare I say, teams that win championships need to encounter a little “good luck.” Last year, we can point to the Houston Astros seeing big performances from Alex Bregman and George Springer. As well as the ability to acquire top end starter Justin Verlander in August that ended up being pieces that broke right for the Twins.
As we look at the 2018 Twins, a deep playoff run is certainly the goal. What needs to break just right for the team in order for them to be in the World Series in October? That is exactly what we will take a look at.
Jose Berrios becomes an Ace
It is no secret that the Twins have been starving for an ace pitcher ever since Johan Santana was traded prior to the 2008 season. In the middle of the Twins carrying the pitch-to-contact moniker, Santana was the one pitcher who could just go out and strike batters out on the way to a win. Ever since he was drafted, Jose Berrios has been the hope for the next strikeout slinging ace for the Twins staff.
After struggling through his debut in 2016 and posting an 8.02 ERA in 58.1 innings, Berrios came into 2017 and pitched to better results. The Twins took their time bringing the young hurler into the 2017 rotation wanting to be absolutely certain he was ready to make the jump. All Berrios did was continue to dominate Triple-A batters until finally on May 13th he was able to make his 2017 debut.
Last season Berrios logged 145.2 innings, went 14-8 in 25 starts, held a 3.89 ERA, and an 8.6 K/9. Berrios was able to improve his home run rate considerably from 1.85 HR/9 in 2016 to 0.93 last season. That is something that will prove to be an important part of Berrios game going forward as his pitches tend to produce a lot of fly balls in general.
Berrios clearly has the best stuff on Twins staff. For the Twins to make a run to the World Series they need Berrios to take another step forward in 2018. It is certainly his year to take the title of staff ace away from Santana. Berrios as an actual ace will help catapult the Twins from Wild Card team to World Series champion.
AL Central Cooperation
One of the biggest reasons that the Twins have been able to identify 2018 as a season to invest significant resources into their own roster is the state of the Ameican League Central. The 2018 season looks like a season where the Central will come down to the Cleveland Indians and the Twins as the Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, and Chicago White Sox are heading in the rebuild direction.
Of course, the Twins still need those teams to all continue in that direction for their plan to work the best. The Tigers and the White Sox both appear to have no chance this season. The thought that continues to linger in the back of minds is, that was the Twins last season. Remember the Twins were supposed to be at least one more year away from competing. And while the Tigers and White Sox appear several years away, it is baseball and anything can happen.
The Royals are a team that also looks to be on the way down, but they have seemingly tried to keep the magic going for one more season. Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain may be gone, but Mike Moustakas is back. We just have to hope as Twins fans that the Royals season goes like Alex Gordon‘s spring has.
The other piece of cooperation that would be nice is that the AL Central front runner of the last few years, the Cleveland Indians, are actually coming back to the pack a bit. The Indians lost Carlos Santana, Bryan Shaw, and Jay Bruce this offseason. Each who were significant contributors to their success of the last several seasons. The Indians did sign Yonder Alonso, but it does seem that they may take a step back this season. To help the Twins, a couple of steps would be nice.
Rodney sticks at Closer
As was mentioned earlier, one of the offseason additions the Twins made was Fernando Rodney. At the time of the signing, he was promised the closer role. Even after the signing of Addison Reed that continues to be the role Rodney will open the season in. That isn’t simply to make good on a promise, but it is an important piece to the Twins 2018 success.
Now, this is less about Rodney, and so much more about what it does to the rest of the bullpen. Even at over 40, Rodney is still able to run his fastball into the upper 90s. With that power from his arm, there has also been the tendency to blow up a little bit and string together some bad outings. The Twins would still be competitive if they had to remove Rodney from the role. But as constructed if the Twins have World Series aspirations, keeping Rodney in that role will be important.
If Rodney is the Twins closer, the Twins can stretch into the 6th inning with quality relievers. The likes of Reed, Zach Duke, Taylor Rogers, and Trevor Hildenberger are now a bridge potentially from the 6th-8th. That still doesn’t include what may happen with the likes of Ryan Pressly or even Tyler Kinley if they can figure things out as two more power bullpen arms.
If Rodney falters, what happens then is Pressly and Kinley will become more heavily relied on. Something that could add a lot of questions marks to the Twins bullpen mix. Right now, the bullpen effectively can shorten the game for all of the Twins starters. Which could become especially helpful for a pitcher like Berrios on his quest to become an ace.
Kepler hits lefties
This list could really include something about each of the Twins young outfield trio. Kepler is the one that we need to see the most from out of the trio. If he can prove the ability to be more than a platoon player will be good not because platooning is bad. Plenty of teams have utilized platoons in very effective ways. It is more about the potential that lies within Kepler’s bat.
Kepler’s total 2017 stat line was .243/.312/.425 and a .737 OPS as well as 19 home runs and 32 doubles. There is some positive momentum in those numbers. Once we take a look at the right and left handed splits it becomes apparent how much better Kepler could become.
Kepler against righties hit .272/.343/.484, a .828 OPS, and 17 home runs and 29 doubles. That was an improvement from his 2016 season. When the pitcher becomes one as the same handedness as Kepler his numbers dropped to, .152/.213/.240, a .452 OPS, two home runs and three doubles.
What will happen if Kepler doesn’t figure out this part of his game is the platoon discussion will have to become front and center. Right now, the most obvious answer would be that Zack Granite would step into that role. Even though he is also a left-handed hitter he has good splits when facing lefties. In the majors, last season Granite slashed .353/.450/.529. The downfall of Granite as a platoon is the Twins would lose a lot of power potential.
Kepler simply has the opportunity to be a very good major league player if he figures out lefties. With World Series aspirations, the Twins need as many very good season performances as possible.
One trade deadline deal
The reality is that as a season progresses in baseball something is always going to happen to that original 25-man roster from Opening Day. When July comes around the Twins will have likely discovered a weakness about their club. That is when they need to turn to the trade market.
The good thing about this past offseason is that the Twins haven’t had to significantly tap into their minor league resources. That has the team poised with the ability to pull off not just a trade, but a potentially blockbuster level trade.
If the Twins end up with an injury or simply someone isn’t performing well they have the assets to go get someone. If say Santana struggles off of this hand issue the Twins could look to go trade for someone like Patrick Corbin or even revisit the Chris Archer possibilities. If the Twins need bullpen help there are always arms available at the trade deadline. They could possibly even try to go for a long-term solution and target someone like Kyle Barraclough of the Miami Marlins.
One of the last moves could be a move for a shortstop if Ehire Adrianza and Eduardo Escobar aren’t able to fill in well for Jorge Polanco. A name that keeps surfacing is Jurickson Profar as a player the Twins could trade for. The names could change on who the Twins pursue, but the point is the Twins will need to look to improve by completing some deal this summer.
Next: Opening Day Roster taking shape
Overall, the Twins are poised very well for the 2018 season. They as a team will still need some things to break just right if they want to push for a third World Series championship for the franchise.