Minnesota Twins Opening Day Prediction: The 2018 Bullpen

The Minnesota Twins bullpen had many surprises in it in 2017. After several additions, the Twins bullpen looks ready to rock in 2018.

The Minnesota Twins have spring training underway and even a few games with real box scores under their belts as well. As they get ready for the season it seems only appropriate to start giving our best guesses at who will be making the team for Opening Day and in what roles. To this point, we have gone through the starting lineup, the bench, and the starting rotation. That leaves us the group with the most changes, the bullpen.

2017 Bullpen

If we are completely honest, the Twins 2017 bullpen was supposed to be awful. When looking over the group that was assembled there were a lot of question marks. Even among the questions, the group continued to surprise and do enough to help the Twins secure the second Wild Card position at season’s end and an appearance in the 2017 playoffs.

It all started with closer Brandon Kintzler. Even though Kintzler doesn’t profile as the type of pitcher you would normally turn to close out games, he just got the job done. Even though his K/9 was only 5.4, Kintzler still saved 28 games, had a 2.78 ERA, and a 159 ERA+ before his July trade deadline move to the Washington Nationals.

The Twins “big” offseason addition to the bullpen last offseason was Matt Belisle. He got off to quite the rough start in 2017 which caused many to heavily question the front office’s thought process and lack of moves to address such a weak bullpen. The veteran regained his usual steady form in the second half and recorded a 1.71 ERA and after assuming the closer role after Kintzler’s departure recorded 9 saves.

While those two veterans truly helped provide a base for the bullpen in 2017. It was the emergence of young relievers like Taylor Rogers, Trevor Hildenberger, and Alan Busenitz that helped the Twins compete down the stretch. Without those three relievers’ performances, the Twins may not have had the storied season that they did.

Even with the successes the Twins had, there is plenty of room for improvement. The Twins bullpen finished 22nd in the major leagues with a 4.40 ERA. The Twins were also 26th in strikeouts and 29th (only ahead of Baltimore) with a 7.66 K/9. The front office made plenty of moves this offseason to try to address the bullpen. Let’s now take a look and see how it may shape up come Opening Day.

Closer Fernando Rodney

The Twins signed Fernando Rodney this offseason to a one year and $4.25 million contract which also has a team option for 2019. At Rodney’s signing, he was promised the role of closer with the Twins. While he may not be the best reliever on the Twins staff, he will fit well into the closer role with the way the Twins have assembled their pitching staff this offseason.

Rodney spent the 2017 season with the Arizona Diamondbacks as their closer. Rodney pitched 55.1 innings while appearing 61 games. He saved 39 games with a 4.23 ERA while holding a 10.6 K/9. His ERA may look a little scarier than it actually is. Rodney’s biggest Achilles heel is that he will go through stretches where he just seems to lose his normal form. In 2017, that was Rodney’s April and May where he had a 12.60 ERA and July where he had a 9.00 ERA.

Rodney brings to the Twins 300 career saves. Which places him second among active major league pitchers behind only Francisco Rodriguez. Rodney is also tied for 26th all-time in saves. The Twins have been successful at slotting relief pitchers into the closer role that do not profile as closers and helping them have success.

The hope in 2018 will be that now that they roster a more typical closer and the role will continue to produce success. Of course, fans are going to want to be prepared for a week or two of blown saves or poor pitching from Rodney. What is good is that he usually breaks out of that trend and returns to being a solid closer. If he doesn’t, the Twins do have other options available.

Setup Man Addison Reed

After the Twins signed Rodney, everyone thought the Twins were done making bullpen additions. That is probably the theme of the Twins whole offseason, “just when we thought they were done…” And when we thought they were done, the Twins brought in Addison Reed on a two year, $16.75 million steal of a deal.

Reed began 2017 with the New York Mets and ended up becoming their closer before being traded to become a setup man with the Boston Red Sox. Over the whole of 2017, Reed pitched 76.0 innings, held down a 2.84 ERA, a 9.0 K/9, and saved 19 games. What may be the most impressive aspect of Reed as a right-handed setup man, is his durability. Reed has topped 70 innings each of the past two seasons and also did back in 2013 with the Chicago White Sox.

Reed is actually the Twins best pitcher in their bullpen going into 2018. By no means is Reed Andrew Miller, but he has the ability to be used in a similar way to which the Cleveland Indians use Miller. He is the setup man late in games, but more importantly, Reed is the guy the Twins will turn to when the heart of the opposing team’s lineup comes up in a high leverage situation.

While Reed is the best pitcher in the bullpen, he also comes in as a little Rodney insurance. If for whatever reason Rodney hits a skid and doesn’t recover from it. The Twins have Reed who has 125 of his own career saves and is certainly comfortable in the closer role. The best case scenario is for Reed to stay in this role as Rodney slings arrows as the closer.

Setup Man Zach Duke

The third pitcher on this bullpen list was the first relief pitcher the Twins signed this offseason, Zach Duke. The left-handed Duke is in position to be the Twins left-handed setup man. Duke came to the Twins on a one year, $2.15 million contract. A great deal for a pitcher that is looking to prove who he is after completing the fastest comeback from Tommy John surgery.

Upon Duke’s return from rehabilitation last season, he was able to log 18.1 innings. That is impressive in itself forget the fact that he still had a 3.93 ERA. When Duke has been healthy he has turned in respectable ERAs of 2.36 in 2016 and 3.41 in 2015. Duke also has the ability to carry a K/9 right around 10.

The hope in this signing for the Twins is that Duke will be able to come into 2018 and be the top lefty to come out of the Twins bullpen. Duke has actually performed well against hitters of either handedness so he will not have to be a strict lefty specialist. Which will only be an asset to manager Paul Molitor as he handles the bullpen in 2018.

What is incredible about this list to this point is these top three guys in the bullpen weren’t even part of the Twins team last season. We are just going to start to get into the group that was so pivotal to the Twins successes in 2017. That only speaks to the depth the front office has been able to create with this group. An environment that will hopefully only encourage the growth of some of the remaining members of the bullpen.

RHP Trevor Hildenberger

Trevor Hildenberger was one of the major bright spots for the Twins last season. The right-hander was drafted by the Twins in the 22nd round of the 2014 MLB Draft, not exactly the place you expect to find one of your best relief pitchers. That is why sports are so great, because down the stretch of 2017 that is exactly who Hildenberger was able to become.

Hildenberger made his major league debut on June 23rd and made an impression with that first appearance as he faced the Cleveland Indians. From there he would only continue to gain his managers trust. By the season’s end, Hildenberger logged 42 innings of work and held a 3.21 ERA. Is 3.02 FIP and also 137 ERA+, all which helps to tell the story of a pretty impressive season from Hildenberger.

By the time the Twins and their fans realized they were actually going to be able to contend for a playoff spot, Hildenberger had locked himself in as the Twins best and most reliable reliever. August was an especially impressive month for Hildenberger as he produced a 2.19 ERA and a 10.9 K/9.

One of the ways that signing the three previously mentioned relievers helps to maximize the Twins bullpen in 2018 is on display right here. When the offseason began, Hildenberger was slotted to either be the team’s closer or otherwise utilized best reliever. With the additions of Rodney, Reed, and Duke-Hildenberger who was an 8th inning guy now becomes a 6th or 7th inning possibility.

LHP Taylor Rogers

In the season of surprises, Taylor Rogers provided another one of those surprises in 2017. Left-handed reliever Rogers may almost be single-handedly responsible for the success of the Twins bullpen last season. When the Twins bullpen really looked like it was going to be Kintzler and then who knows who, Rogers stepped up.

There was a point during last season around the month of June, where Kintzler and Rogers were tops in the league in Wins Probability Added. In his second season of major league experience, Rogers appeared in 69 games and logged 55.2 innings. Along with that he had a 3.07 ERA, finished 7 games for the Twins, and held a 7.9 K/9.

Through the minors, Rogers had always struggled against right-handed hitters. That was the concern that led to the decision for Rogers to move to the bullpen and become much more of a specialist. In 2017, Rogers began to show the ability to also get right-handers out enough that it didn’t necessitate a pitching change just because a righty came to the plate.

He is still clearly much better against left-handed batters holding them to a .173 batting average in 2017. And in 2018, with the presence of Duke as well the Twins may choose to use him more as a lefty-specialist but can feel more confident leaving him in the game if a right-hander is sandwiched in between there. Again like Hildenberger, the Twins now have another one of their 2017 setup men ready to come in for the 6th and 7th inning instead.

RHP Ryan Pressly

Ryan Pressly may flat out have some of the best stuff in the Twins bullpen. His fastball settles in right around 96 mph and he has a curveball that has good movement and has been marvelled at because of its spin rate. Here we sit in 2018 and Pressly hasn’t quite been able to put everything together to become a successful reliever. Now out of options, this may be his last shot at it with the Twins.

The start of 2017 was a rough season for Pressly. He wound up pitching so poorly that he was sent down to Rochester for a time. In his return and for the second half of the season it did seem that Pressly had figured something out and was able to be productive for the Twins. Pressly pitched in 34.1 innings, had a 2.62 ERA, and an 8.1 K/9.

Those are results, especially at this spot in the bullpen that the Twins would love to see out of Pressly. What is also encouraging about Pressly outside of his strong second half, is even though his season ERA was 4.70. Pressly did have a 3.81 xFIP in 2017. Something that usually points to some possibility that his performance may have actually been a little better than the outcomes it produced. Pressly also had his career best 12.2% swinging strike rate in 2017.

What may be good for Pressly is that the Twins are not relying on him in 2018 to be in a high-leverage role in the 2018 bullpen. If all things break right, to have a pitcher of Pressly’s caliber sitting as your teams sixth best reliever is a pretty great place to be. The flip side is that Pressly could continue to struggle and he is in a different uniform by July.

RHP Phil Hughes

We have hit a point in the list where this spot will only exist for a short time once the major league season opens up. Since the Twins plan to open the season with a four-man rotation this eighth bullpen spot will exist. Honestly, there are three other names that deserve to be here in many ways, but contract status and minor league options come into play here. Making Phil Hughes the Twins long-reliever entering the season.

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I wrote a little more in depth about Hughes in the starting rotation projections, because at that point for similar reasons he seemed set to be a starter. The addition of Lance Lynn pushes him here. Hughes doesn’t profile well for a bullpen spot as someone who has struggled with his arm strength and velocity due to injury already, it is hard to see this being a place where he can really succeed.

Somewhat similar to Kinley, with the other strong five or six pieces in the bullpen the Twins can experiment with this a bit if they don’t flat out cut him. After a strong season in 2017, it is really hard to see Alan Busenitz be pushed out of the bullpen. Busenitz did nothing but pitch himself into a bullpen last season before all the additions the Twins made. It would also simply be more exciting to watch Gabriel Moya and John Curtiss receive a chance in the bullpen.

Next: Twins Prospects #5-#10

Unless Hughes plans on pulling something like Mike Pelfrey did and flat out refuse this assignment. Hughes will be starting the season in this position and when Ervin Santana and bumps the rotation back to five starters a tough decision will need to be made by the Twins front office. That is a good problem, to have too many quality pitchers for both your rotation and bullpen.