Minnesota Twins Opening Day Projection: The Starting Rotation

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SAN FRANCISCO, CA – JUNE 09: Ervin Santana /

The Minnesota Twins entered the offseason needing to bolster their starting rotation. How might it look come Opening Day of 2018?

The Minnesota Twins have spring training underway and even a few games with real box scores under their belt as well. As they get ready for the season it seems only appropriate to start giving our best guesses at who will be making the team for Opening Day and in what roles. To this point, we have gone through the starting lineup and the bench. Today we will turn our attention to the starting rotation.

How was 2017?

Twins pitching was again the conversation this offseason. Front and center of that conversation was the focus on the need for an upgraded starting rotation in order to truly be competitive in the American League. The Twins were able to have success in 2017 despite some evident holes in their starting five. Those starters ranked in the bottom half of many pitching categories when compared to other MLB teams.

Twins starters were 26th in K/9 (7.08), 24th in HR/9 (1.46), 19th in ERA (4.73), and 16th in BB/9 (3.06). These are all areas that the Twins will need to improve in if they hope to catch the Cleveland Indians in the race for the American League Central. Not to mention, if the Twins want to make a run at a World Series title with teams like the Houston Astros and New York Yankees loaded up for a 2018 run.

The Additions and Santana

The dream all offseason was that Yu Darvish would be in a Twins uniform in order to fortify their rotation. He instead chose the Chicago Cubs. When that happened the Twins turned their attention to the trade market and added Jake Odorizzi in a savvy trade. Odorizzi and a flier on Anibal Sanchez are the two additions the Twins made from outside the organization to help the Twins improve their MLB staff and its place among other teams.

Even though there wasn’t a lot in the way of outside additions. There is still hope for the Twins rotation when it comes to improvement. There were positive signs of improvement from some pitchers in 2017. There is also plenty of room for young pitchers to step into MLB roles in 2018.

One thing is certain, there will be an important piece missing from the rotation to start the season. With Ervin Santana out with injury, the Twins will be missing the leader of their rotation in many ways. Santana has been the veteran to help mentor and bring Jose Berrios along on his journey to hopeful ace. Santana also led the Twins in innings pitched (211.1) and was tops in the American League with five complete games and three shutouts.

Let us see what the Santana-less Twins starting rotation may look like come Opening Day.

Jose Berrios

Jose Berrios in many ways arrived as a major league pitcher in 2017. He didn’t make the Opening Day roster, but that did give us potential insight into a potential philosophy this front office has. We learned that the front office wanted to be sure Berrios was ready and that he wouldn’t be moving up and down between the majors and Triple-A multiple time. Instead, once he stepped into the major league clubhouse he would be there to stay. That strategy paid off. When Berrios made his first 2017 major league start, he made the statement with his performance he was in the majors to stay.

In that first start, Berrios pitched 7.2 innings only allowing one run and striking out four batters. In his next outing, Berrios busted down the door to the majors a little more by striking out 11 batters. Berrios clearly established himself as the clear-cut number two starter in the Twins rotation. He pitched 145.2 innings, a 3.89 ERA, 8.6 K/9, and a 3.84 FIP.

It seems that Ervin Santana has certainly been able to help mentor and lead Berrios to being a quality an established starter into 2018. With Santana out to start the season with his finger injury, Berrios will have the opportunity to start fast and grab onto the title of Twins number one starter.

As always, Berrios has been working hard to get better. Something anyone can see by following his social media accounts. This is the season that the Twins need Berrios to take that big step forward and take a step closer to being an ace. The ace they saw in his stuff when they took him in the 2012 draft. The Twins still have the capability to add players as the trade deadline approaches come July, but if Berrios doesn’t continue to take significant steps forward it may not matter.

Jake Odorizzi

Anyone else still a little in shock about how this trade went down? Just me? We all know that Odorizzi isn’t an “ace” or even a “savior” of this staff. He is going to go a long way to strengthening the rotation overall. And for the price of Jermaine Palacios, it still feels like a dream.

Last season was a certain down year for Odorizzi. He logged 143.1 innings with a 4.14 ERA and a worse 5.43 FIP. He did still maintain an 8.0 K/9. By his own admission, Odorizzi spent a lot of last season battling a back injury. He has proven in previous seasons to be able to pitch in a way that his ERA can sit in the mid-3’s. That was a form that Odorizzi seemed to regain in September and October as he went 3-1 in 5 games. His K/9 jumped over 10 and he held a 1.03 ERA in those starts.

Odorizzi is saying that he feels healthy as spring training begins. His performance will become key early on with Santana out. What had to attract the Twins to a trade for Odorizzi is he has always flirted with taking that jump to being a dominant starter. Something exemplified in that five-game stretch to end 2017.

Twins fans may not be rooting for the former Tampa Bay Ray pitcher they had hoped for. There is still a good chance that Odorizzi will be able to be part of a formidable trio of starters as he slides in next to Santana and Berrios. If mid-season all three pitchers hit a groove like they can, that will be a scary group for opposing lineups.

Kyle Gibson

Right here, this was the line in the sand during the 2017 season. For most of the season, there was this clear drop off from the top two starters, Santana and Berrios, to the rest of the bunch. Kyle Gibson was able to begin to close that gap a bit in the second half of the season. The Twins will be hoping that he will continue to do that and be the pitcher they saw as the team invested a first round draft pick in him back in 2009.

Over the entire season, Gibson was able to complete 158 innings but held a less than impressive 5.07 ERA. It was August 22nd where all of a sudden Gibson seemed to flip a switch. Gibson would pitch eight more games from then to the end of the season. Those starts totalled 49.1 innings, a 2.92 ERA, and a Twins win in all eight of those starts.

As written about by Nick Pollack at FanGraphs, in those last eight starts Gibson seemed to make a change in his approach. Most notably Gibson reduced the frequency in which he threw his curveball and increased throwing his slider. He even began using his slider in a specific way in order to increase its value. Pollack says his slider was exclusively thrown “down and to the glove side” of all batters.

The trade for Odorizzi lessens the need for Gibson to continue his final 8 game stretch over the whole of 2018. It will be crucial for Gibson to pitch well to begin the season. If he has truly figured something out, Gibson will be quite the asset as a potential fourth starter come mid-season.

Phil Hughes

The good news about this part of the rotation predictions is that this is essentially the fifth starter line. Unfortunately, the Twins do need to find two pitchers from the remaining group to begin the season (well maybe…more on that later).

Phil Hughes has been hurt a lot lately with quite the battle with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. He also is likely not the pitcher many of you reading want to see here. Especially following two seasons in a row where he was unable to top 60 innings, and season last year where he had a 5.87 ERA and was giving up two home runs per nine innings.

The pie in the sky here would be for Hughes to regain his 2014 form where he set a record strikeout to walk ratio. As a fifth starter, even his 2015 performance would be tolerable until a better option came forward. In 2015, Hughes pitched 155.1 innings and was able to hold down a 4.40 ERA. Nothing special, but it is at least something from a pitcher you are paying a good chunk of money to.

Because of that contract and lack of options. If Hughes shows any semblance of life, he will make the Opening Day roster. He may not stay there long if one of the younger guys behind him pushes him and proves they are ready. In all likelihood, Hughes will get at least one more chance in the rotation to prove he can still pitch.

Adalberto Mejia

As we think back to discussing Berrios, it seems we learned something about the Twins front office in their dealing with him in 2017. For pitchers who are identified as key prospects, this front office doesn’t want to mess around with sending them up and down several times. If they call a top prospect up, something has likely signalled that that prospect is ready for the majors.

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That opens the door for another young starter, 24-year-old Adalberto Mejia. It often has seemed like Mejia may have the stuff to be a good starting pitcher in the majors. He has failed to put it all together in a way that keeps him at the major league level. In 2017, Mejia went 4-7 with the Twins with a 4.50 ERA over 98 innings. Like Hughes, nothing that makes anyone too excited but potentially enough there to be a solid fifth starter.

Now, this spot may not even be filled come opening day. The way the Twins schedule opens up they might be able to proceed with a four-man rotation instead of five. It seems there could be a scenario where Mejia is still brought as part of the bullpen group and him and Hughes essentially become 4a and 4b starters. The Twins could assemble the two of them to make one pitcher.

Next: Minnesota Twins Projection: The Bench

When looking at the season from a big picture perspective, this fifth rotation spot really looks like it will be someone else’s by midseason. To start 2018, Hughes and Mejia would likely be keeping the seat warm for one of the young top pitching prospects in Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, or even Aaron Slegers or Zack Littell.

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