Minnesota Twins Opening Day Projection: Starting Lineup
The Minnesota Twins are underway with spring training and as they compete for Opening Day positions we try to predict them, starting with the lineup.
The Minnesota Twins have spring training underway and even a few games with real box scores under their belt as well. As they start to get ready for the season it seems only appropriate to start giving our best guesses at who will be making the team for Opening Day and in what roles. Today we begin with the starting lineup.
In 2017 the Twins continued to roll out a potent lineup. That was due to a lot of young players taking leaps in their development and a few breaking out in ways that few probably expected. Miguel Sano got off to a hot start and carried the team on his back for the first couple months of the season. Eddie Rosario caught fire like no one expected and because of that we all waited for him to fall back into old habits, but he just never did.
Joe Mauer rediscovered himself, or finally saw progress in his recovery from concussions and put together a solid offensive season. After being awarded some patience during the earlier part of the season Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco both were able to find themselves as the season went on both putting together incredible second halves of 2017.
We could go on and on about the ways that this team really found an identity offensively. It wasn’t just our eyes that told that story. The numbers back it up as the Twins found themselves in the top ten for team offense in several categories when compared to other Major League teams.
The Twins were seventh in runs with 815 and ninth in average at. .260. The Twins also found themselves at seventh in OBP coming in at .334 and 9th in wOBA at .329 as a team. What may be even more impressive is their 4th place finish in the majors with an average of 5.03 runs per game. Something the team certainly needed in order to help compensate at times for the shortcomings of the starting rotation.
With a young and productive lineup in 2017, as one can imagine there isn’t a whole lot the Twins are looking to change coming into this season. With a few places that present a question or competition let’s go ahead and take a look at what is ahead for the 2018 lineup.
Catcher: Jason Castro
Last offseason as Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were getting settled in Minnesota they clearly made Jason Castro a priority free agent addition. Castro was brought to Minnesota on a three-year, $24.5 million contract for his track record as a good defensive catcher. Most important was his ability to frame pitches and hopefully bring added success to what had been a struggling pitching unit in Minnesota.
While Castro did live up to his billing as a good defensive catcher, he also added his best offensive season since his 2013 All-Star season. He hit .242/.333/.388 along with 10 home runs and 22 doubles. Those aren’t numbers like that of Joe Mauer during his catching days, but combined with Castro’s defense it was a solid contribution from the catcher in 2017.
Looking forward to 2018, Castro’s biggest responsibility is to continue to help the Twins pitching staff improve and get used to the several new additions to the staff. After that similar offensive numbers would be suitable and an improvement would certainly help the Twins as they try to advance further through the playoffs.
First Base: Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer enters 2018 in the last year of the contract that has been the thorn in the side of his public image ever since he made the move to first base due to concussions. 2017 appeared to be the first season in which Mauer started to get his vision and brain to work together in a way that he could hit the baseball in Mauer-like ways again.
On the season Mauer hit .305/.384/.417 and 36 doubles (his .384 OBP was 17th among qualified MLB batters). Mauer also started to prove that he has transformed into a quality defensive first baseman. Although we as Twins fans are often clouded by wanting to root for “our guys” it seems as he was robbed of the chance to win a Gold Glove this past season. According to FanGraphs, Mauer was good for 7 defensive runs saved which was sixth in the majors in 2017 and led the league with a 7.1 UZR.
If Mauer is able to replicate his 2017 in 2018 that will be a great season for the Twins first baseman. If he can even improve slightly more as continues to train his eyes and brain in his new reality, Wow! In either of those two scenarios the conversation about a new contract for 2019 will become louder and louder.
Second Base: Brian Dozier
Brian Dozier spent all of last offseason seeing his name in trade rumors. On the heels of a 100-loss season, he seemed like the key to quickly inject some positive energy into a flailing organization. Instead, the Twins front office didn’t see Dozier’s value met in any trade offers and held on to him. Dozier performed well in 2018 and in a complete reversal, he has spent all offseason secure in knowing he will be starting in Minnesota this season.
Last season Dozier hit .271/.359/.498 and added 34 home runs and 30 doubles. In what was a surprise to even Twins fans, Dozier won his first Gold Glove award. Even though it was a surprise, Dozier does provide some solid defense for the Twins at second base.
There isn’t much for Dozier to improve on as he has been an All-Star caliber starting second baseman for several years. One thing that would save Twins fans a lot of panic would be if Dozier could figure out how to hit like he does from the start of the season. Dozier has regularly been a slow starter and last season he hit .242/.328/.417 and 13 home runs versus .304/.394/.591 and 21 home runs in the second half.
Third Base: Eduardo Escobar
Before you start throwing virtual tomatoes my direction, please know I believe this will (hopefully) be a temporary reality. With everything surrounding Miguel Sano between injury and possible suspension, I have my doubts on whether or not he will land as the starting third baseman. Enter our friend Eduardo Escobar.
In 2017, Escobar hit .254/.309/.449 and added 21 home runs and 16 doubles. He put those numbers together over 129 games and almost accumulated 500 plate appearances. From August 20th on, Escobar took over as the Twins starting third baseman when Sano initially fouled that ball off of his shin. From that time until the end of the 2017 season Escobar went on to hit .256/.301/.525 and 10 home runs.
Escobar serves the Twins best as a utility infielder who is able to bounce around and give the regulars a day of rest. The Twins could also do quite a bit worse at that position trying to replace Sano if they didn’t already have Escobar waiting in the wings. I do still have some concern long-term if Sano doesn’t return to third base (something I wrote about here) but if Escobar can continue his 2017 production in 2018 that will put the Twins in a good position.
Shortstop: Jorge Polanco
For the better part of a decade, the Twins have had extreme instability at the position of shortstop. If this prediction holds true, 2018 will be the second time that the previous years Opening Day shortstop returned to start the following Opening Day. While there is a lot of buzz around the young shortstops coming up through the Twins minors, the Young shortstop in the majors is doing some impressive things himself.
Over the whole of Polanco’s season, he hit .256/.313/.410 and also added 13 home runs and 30 doubles. Polanco really found a rhythm at the plate in the second half of the season and had an incredible month of August where he hit .373/.413/.686 and 6 home runs as well as a 10 game hitting streak. There were also a lot of questions surrounding Polanco’s defense entering the season but he was able to play his position well in 2017.
Polanco will be looking to build on a breakout 2017 as we enter 2018. He truly looks to have the ability to be a consistent plus offensively at shortstop. Polanco earned the trust of Paul Molitor enough to be placed in the middle of the lineup often when Sano went down with injury in August. The hope would be some of the Polanco from 2017’s second half would be present over the whole of 2018 season. If he does that and continues to field his position the way he did in 2017, he will continue to fend off the cries for Nick Gordon that could creep up if Polanco starts out slow this season.
Left Field: Eddie Rosario
2017 felt like the season where we were all waiting for Eddie Rosario to fail. Ok, so that may sound harsh, but we had grown to know a strikeout prone, free-swinging outfielder, from previous seasons. In 2017 it was somewhat awing to see him continue to succeed week after week and month after month. Because of that success, Rosario will be expected to be a big part of the Twins lineup in 2018.
In 2017, Rosario slashed .290/.328/.507 and was able to add 27 home runs and 33 doubles. June was the month where things clearly started to click differently for Rosario as his average jumped from the .260’s up to .290 and above for most of the summer. Defensive metrics might not treat Rosario well, but his ability to play centerfield is a definite plus as he slides over to left field.
As we enter 2018, Rosario will be expected to continue the trends with his bat that he began to exhibit in 2017. It is hard to know what exactly changed that trend for Rosario, but he does seem to be swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone less. When he does swing at those pitches he is making more regular contact with his overall contact rate also increasing as a result. Whatever is going on in the process, the hope is that it continues to produce good and maybe even a little better results in 2018.
Center Field: Byron Buxton
As a first-round pick and a top prospect for a team that endured a lot of losing, Byron Buxton has been thrust into the Minnesota and even national spotlight for a few years now. It has taken him some time, experience, and going back and forth between the majors and minors, but in 2018 he seemed to add offense to his incredible defense.
We can look at Buxton’s overall 2017 numbers and it tells one story with his slash line of .253/.314/.413 and 16 home runs, 14 doubles, 6 triples, and 29 stolen bases. Looking at his half-season splits shows us just how much Buxton’s offensive output changed in the second half. Those second half numbers look like .300/.347/.546, 11 home runs, 8 doubles, and 5 triples.
As was showcased in the early part of the season, Buxton will almost always have value based on his ability to field center field at an elite level. Buxton was the top center fielder and finished third overall regardless of position in the majors according to his 24 defensive runs saved in 2017. If Buxton can even perform at an offensive level a notch down from the second half of 2017 he will place himself right in the middle of some All-Star type conversations.
Right Field: Max Kepler
Max Kepler was a young player who didn’t quite take the leap forward with his production in a way that had been hoped. He still was a positive contributor to the 2017 Twins. Kepler also has been viewed highly enough in his current performance, potential, and skill set that he was rumored to be coveted by the Tampa Bay Rays as rumors swirled around about a potential Chris Archer deal.
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Kepler offered solid defense for the Twins in right field as really the third center fielder that the Twins trot out on the field for every game. At the plate he hit .243/.312/.425 with 19 home runs and 32 doubles. What held Kepler back was his struggle in hitting left-handed pitching. In those scenarios, Kepler slashed .152/.213/.240.
Looking ahead to 2018 the attention of Kepler must turn to proving that he can, in fact, hit left-handed pitching. He seemed to begin to turn the corner a bit towards the end of the season and based on the moves made so far this offseason. It appears the Twins are giving him every opportunity to prove he can hit left-handers and continue to take hold of a full-time role as the Twins right-fielder.
Designated Hitter: Miguel Sano
Traditionally the Twins have used the designated hitter position as a rotating position so that they could keep the bat of some of their position players in the lineup but give them a rest from the field. To at least start this season it looks as though Miguel Sano could be taking full-time reps with the questions surround his physical readiness and whther or not he will be ready to field third base.
In an injury-shortened 2017, Sano hit .264/.352/.507 and added 28 home runs to his year-end numbers. What was incredible about Sano’s season is that he seemingly carried the Twins offensively through the first couple months of the season earning him an All-Star selection.
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Going into 2018, the biggest worry has to be Sano’s availability. The Twins need him to be healthy and it would also be great from an on-field standpoint if he would avoid suspension. This is also going to be a season where we start to see if Sano will develop into a great hitter and third baseman by cutting back on some of his strikeouts, or be simply a good power hitter. Sano will always strikeout a fair amount, but at the rate he does now it will hard for him to reach an all-time great status if he doesn’t change something.