Minnesota Twins: Would a Brian Dozier extension be wise?
Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier has stated that he is open to an extension with the team. Should the Twins make the move?
The Minnesota Twins have benefited greatly from the elite play from second baseman Brian Dozier over the last two seasons. As he is coming into his free agent season in 2018, would the Minnesota Twins be wise to discuss an extension with Dozier?
Brian Dozier has recently mentioned that he would be willing to sign an extension to remain with the Minnesota Twins. This comes after the 2016-2017 offseason when the Twins were in trade conversations with at least one team about moving Dozier.
The Twins were not willing to let Dozier go without a premium return, which stalled the talks with the Dodgers last offseason, and now the look will be much different coming off of a playoff season in 2017. Certainly the Twins cannot trade away their Gold Glove second baseman and leadoff hitter, but can they afford to keep him after the season?
Even with expanded payroll that is clear to happen this offseason and likely going forward, affording Dozier’s contract in the future could get to be an issue. There are many angles to the issue, though.
We will take a look at both sides of the argument for an extension with Dozier, including some likely dollar figures that it would take to extend him. We will also look at the reasons why an extension could be a bad idea for both the long- and short-term health of the franchise. Last, we will look at what options there will be after 2018 if the Twins do not extend Dozier.
First we will take a look at exactly who Brian Dozier is, and why he’s a guy that is worthy of getting this much attention in Twins territory as his current contract is set to come to an end.
Next: Dozier's background
Dozier’s Twins career
Dozier didn’t have a lot of interest coming out of high school, and even coming out of the University of Southern Mississippi, the Twins were able to draft him in the 8th round in 2009.
Dozier had a tremendous draft season in the minors, hitting .349/.414/.422 with the GCL and Appy League levels, playing primarily shortstop. He began to see more time off of the shortstop position in his first full minor league season in 2010, playing 15 or more games at both second and third, though he did play the most of his games at short.
In 2011, Dozier really established himself with the bat, hitting .320/.399/.491 between high-A and AA with 33 doubles, 12 triples, 9 home runs, and 24 stolen bases. He also hit .296/.358/.454 with 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases in the Arizona Fall League in 26 games.
Though he wasn’t hitting well, when opening day shortstop Pedro Florimon was flirting with the Mendoza Line in 2012, Dozier was called up and played shortstop, hitting .234/.271/.332 with 6 homers and 9 steals over 84 games. He was sure-handed, but he struggled with his range at the position.
Dozier took over second base in 2013, and he’s really learned the position while on the job at the major league level, improving at the position each season bit by bit to the point where he earned a Gold Glove this past season more due to his sure-handedness and lack of issues on plays he makes rather than impressive range or arm or anything like that.
Dozier has been an offensive asset from day one, able to get on base with power and speed. However, he took another step in 2016 that drastically shot him forward as an offensive performer. From 2012-2015, Dozier hit .240/.314/.411 with 75 home runs and 56 stolen bases, walking at a 9.1% rate and striking out at a 19.2% rate.
Over the past two seasons, Dozier has been incredible with the bat, hitting .269/.349/.522 with 76 home runs and 34 steals in those two seasons, walking at a 10% rate and striking out at a 20% rate.
Dozier has been an All-Star in 2015, a Gold Glove in 2017, and he received votes in the past three American League MVP votes.
So, he’s obviously a valuable piece of the franchise. Let’s start with the reasons why the team should extend him.
Next: Reasons Why
Why to do it?
Certainly, many reasons can be made for extending Dozier, but we’ll take a look at a few of the better ones:
Leadership
Dozier’s not the elder on the team, or even in the lineup, but with Joe Mauer also a free agent after the 2018 season, securing one of the two significant leaders from the current young lineup for beyond 2018 could have some value.
Beyond just the leadership in the lineup, Dozier has established himself as a locker room leader and even a vocal leader among all players within the game. After an ugly incident in New York, Dozier was quite vocal about the need to extend nets in all ballparks. He was also recently interviewed by Star Tribune and discussed the proposed pitching clock change to MLB this upcoming season.
His willingness to be outspoken and take the media discussion is important as an example to younger players as they step up to be leaders in the community and in the game of baseball as a whole in how to handle the media.
Stability
While it’s a “boring” reason, certainly one reason that makes sense to retain Dozier’s services would have to be that he lends a layer of stability to a team with plenty of youthful volatility. What the team will get from players like Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver is certainly not known.
Having a sure bat, especially at the top of the lineup, even if Dozier doesn’t hit quite to the level of 2016-2017, would be a nice thing to have as the team moves forward with their young core.
Market
One of the biggest reasons to do this right now could be the market this offseason and how prices have been deflated across the league for all players.
It would be certainly feasible that the Twins could make an offer for 4-5 years at $17-22 million per season and pull in Dozier without problem, even though coming into the offseason, many were looking at Dozier as a guy who could easily pull in 9 figures on a contract.
It’s possible that the Minnesota Twins may have to get close to 9 figures to get that 5th year on the deal, but if they don’t go for the 5th year, it will likely mean a higher annual average value.
While many expected Dozier to command between $20-25 million annually in a deal, it’s quite possible that annual value could be reduced this offseason with some worry due to the current market and it possibly extending into next offseason as well.
So we have a good idea why to sign him – why would an extension be a bad idea for the Twins?
Next: Reasons Not
Why not?
Definitely there are reasons why an extension would be wise for the Twins with Dozier. However, why might it be a bad decision to extend Dozier?
Market
The market this offseason is deflated, but very feasibly this market is deflated due to the incredible depth and talent in the 2018-2019 market. It is very possible that the teams are holding off to spend heavily next offseason.
That would put a ton of funds into the market to pursue big names. Now, many will go hard after guys like Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and Bryce Harper. However, not everyone will be able to land those guys.
Even the market for second base will have depth with Daniel Murphy, DJ LeMahieu, and Logan Forsythe all on the market as well. That should create some level of competition for “best fits” for each team at the position.
Age
This is not a huge concern for Dozier in the immediate, however, Dozier would be 35 at the end of a 4-year deal. At that point, Dozier likely will either have lost enough of a step that second base will no longer be an option or have seen his skills decline enough to where his value is no longer what he’s being paid.
Loss of Financial Flexibility
One of the current blessings the Minnesota Twins have in their young roster is that no player has a contract beyond 2019.
Dozier is among 4 free agents after 2018. After 2018, though, the issue that will come soon for the Twins begins to come to fruition as Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Kennys Vargas, and Max Kepler each have their first year of arbitration.
The Twins will need to have a fairly high level of financial flexibility to be able to handle the arbitration cases that will begin that season and seasons after that for players like Jorge Polanco and Jose Berrios.
Depth in the Minors
The Minnesota Twins have a ton of depth at middle infield among their best prospects. Infielder Nick Gordon is likely going to be major league ready by the end of 2018. Jermaine Palacios will most likely be in the upper minors by the end of 2018. Luis Arraez will be an interesting player to see how he returns from a significant injury.
Most of these prospects are in the lower levels of the minors, but still those players could push their way to the majors by the time an extension would be wrapping up.
So, if the Twins don’t sign Dozier to an extension, what would be the plans for 2019 and beyond?
Next: Backup plan
What’s the backup if he goes after 2018?
If Brian Dozier leaves, there will be two major holes left with the Twins – second base and leadoff. How will the Twins fill each?
Leadoff
On the 2017 Minnesota Twins team, five players finished with 100 plate appearances and a .350 or better on base percentage. Dozier was one of those. Two others are free agents after 2018. If the Twins are looking for a leadoff hitter among their current hitters, it’d likely be a step forward from Byron Buxton.
Coming up in the minor league system is Zack Granite, but he would need a position to play, and the Twins have their outfield set with young players. Nick Gordon has the ability to take a walk and is a quality base runner that could profile at the top of the lineup.
Otherwise, the Twins would be likely seeking a leadoff hitter that could play third base and push Miguel Sano permanently to DH or could DH himself.
Second Base
The leadoff issue will be much more of a problem to replace than a second baseman. We’ve covered the minor leaguers in the system who could cover second base in the future previously.
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The free agent market at second base will be intriguing if the Twins determine that Dozier is too expensive and choose to go for a less expensive route.
Elvis Andrus will have the option of opting out of his current contract with the Rangers. The Twins could pursue him as a leadoff man to play short and slide Polanco over to second base.
If the team was looking for a short-term cheaper option, someone like Jed Lowrie could end up being a good choice. While Daniel Murphy is likely going to get a significant deal and is not in Dozier’s class defensively, DJ LeMahieu has quality contact skills and glove work and could end up being a fit.
The Twins could also pursue the trade market, with a team like the Phillies having a logjam at the position already that could benefit the Twins next offseason.
Next: Twins should avoid becoming Pirates
Whatever the route the Minnesota Twins end up taking with Dozier, they do have plenty to consider in the move. While a move around some of their other free agents next offseason will be more cut-and-dry, the decision to retain Dozier or not will be a very intriguing one to watch develop.