Minnesota Twins: Should the Twins be done with their offseason bullpen search?

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ST. LOUIS, MO – JULY 24: (EDITORS NOTE: Multiple exposures were combined in camera to produce this image.) Zach Duke /

The Minnesota Twins have made a pair of veteran bullpen additions. Is that the end of the bullpen additions that will be needed?

The Minnesota Twins announced the signing of Zach Duke on Tuesday and earlier signed Fernando Rodney, two veteran relievers to add to a young, talented bullpen. Is that all that is needed for the unit?

Current signings

The Twins have signed two veteran relief arms. Let’s first look at those two arms.

Fernando Rodney has certainly received some level of crud over his career for his ERA, but the truth of the matter is that the man has recorded 300 career saves, something that just 26 pitchers have done in history.

In 2017, Rodney was able to save 39 games, and while he did have a 4.23 ERA, he posted a 3.03 FIP with a 28.1% strikeout rate. He continued to produce a 52.2% ground ball rate, one of the calling cards of his career, as he’s posted a 50.6% ground ball rate over his career.

Rodney also brings a level of velocity that wasn’t present at the beginning of the 2017 season in the Minnesota Twins bullpen, with an average four-seam velocity of 95.4 MPH along with a change up that comes in at 83.9 MPH. His primary pitch is his sinker, which averages 94.1 MPH.

Zach Duke returned from Tommy John surgery in 2017, throwing just 18 1/3 innings, with a 3.93 ERA. While he didn’t get the swing and miss he had in his career previous, he had very similar lines otherwise, with a 50.9% ground ball rate.

Duke’s average fastball velocity of 88 MPH is right in line with his pre-surgery velocity, and he works with a curve and slider that he throws from multiple arm angles from the left side, making him incredibly difficult for lefties to square up.

Next: Yes, for $

Yes, the Minnesota Twins are done adding bullpen arms for money reasons

Combined, the Twins have spent roughly ~$6 million in 2018 funds on signing both Rodney and Duke, and while there are still some bargains out there to be had along those lines, those are not the additions that will truly improve the bullpen.

This winter’s market has seen established middle relievers like Bryan Shaw hauling in $9 million per season over 3 guaranteed years when he signed. Even veteran Joe Smith, who has pitched for four teams over the past two seasons, was able to secure a multi-year deal that averaged $7.5 million.

Relievers this winter have been paid quite handsomely, and the ones that are left on the board are the best of the best available – Wade Davis, Greg Holland, and Addison Reed. Those guys aren’t going to be getting anything resembling a “bargain” deal.

The Twins also are making overtures to a number of starting pitcher free agents, and the finances that they have available would be best held until it’s known what would be required in those markets as the relief market really has moved to less of a priority.

It’s certainly feasible that signing two starting pitchers would leave some financial room to then pursue another relief pitcher, but then you’re likely looking in the bargain bin, rather in the top end of the market, very probably offering a minor league deal or a cheap flyer contract to someone who hasn’t gotten a deal yet, not a top-money contract to someone like Davis, Reed, or Holland.

Of course, the team could say they were done for another reason…

Next: Yes, for youth

Yes, the Minnesota Twins are done adding bullpen arms in order to give young arms opportunities

Many sources want to mention the overall ranking of the Twins bullpen in 2017 and use that as the measure of the bullpen the team is working with coming into the offseason. On a season long basis, the Twins bullpen did rank 22nd in bullpen ERA in the league.

However, an influx of young arms as well as finding “right” roles for those young arms in the second half of the season led to a surge from the bullpen. While not an elite number, the Twins unit jumped all the way up to 12th in the second half in that bullpen ERA statistic. The unit went from striking out 7.16 batters per 9 innings to 8.26 from the first half to the second half.

That doesn’t mention the second half performances of particular arms, such as:

Ryan Pressly, 2nd half: 30 G, 34 1/3 IP, 2.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.1% BB, 22.8% K
Taylor Rogers, August 1-end of season, 22 G, 15 1/3 IP, 1.17 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 12.1% BB, 25.8% K
Trevor Hildenberger, 37 G, 42 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.5% BB, 25.9% K
Alan Busenitz, 2nd half, 22 G, 23 IP, 1.96 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 7.3% BB, 23.2% K

It also doesn’t take into consideration that the Twins saw young pitchers like John Curtiss come up and strike out 10 in 8 2/3 innings and Gabriel Moya post a 1.11 WHIP over 6 1/3 innings at the very end of the season as both made their argument for a 2018 role.

The Twins also have impressive young arms in the minor league system, with pitchers like Andrew Vazquez, Alex Robinson, and Thomas Hackimer having dominant relief seasons in the low minors, but also Nick Anderson, Todd Van Steensel, Sam Clay, Mason Melotakis, and Jake Reed having excellent seasons in relief with time spent in the upper minors.

The bevy of relief arms ready in the upper minor leagues is such that the team felt comfortable leaving Luke Bard and Nick Burdi unprotected to be selected for the Rule 5 draft, where the Twins selected another hard-throwing reliever, Tyler Kinley.

With all of this young talent that can be cycled through, it’s quite reasonable that 3 or more will stick as quality contributors throughout the season, and the rest can be cycled through fairly easily due to a lack of financial investment in them. Signing a player for a 7-figure deal takes away some of that flexibility in removing that player from the roster if they are ineffective.

So what would be an argument, then, for pursuing more relief arms?

Next: No, for youth

CLEVELAND, OH – SEPTEMBER 26: Relief pitcher Tyler Duffey /

No, the Minnesota Twins are not done adding bullpen arms as they currently rely too much on youth

That same youth for some (and possibly the team) could be TOO much reliance on young, unreliable arms. Currently, the Twins bullpen is projected to have just Rodney and Duke over 30.

Even more intriguing, those two are the only two on the entire 40-man roster that are over 30 projected for the bullpen. While that’s not terribly surprising for a young team like the Twins have, the amount of youth in the late innings could be a concern.

Just taking a look at some of the relievers available on the market this offseason, the ages of a few stand out. Neftali Feliz, Jeanmar Gomez, and Drew Storen, are all 30, and each have posted at least one 30-save season, but also are coming off of a negative-value fWAR season in 2017.

Young pitchers, and especially those young pitchers with such premium velocity and hard breaking stuff, have difficulty controlling their stuff initially at the big league level until they get a feel for the league and either the ones that stick find their way or the ones that won’t stick fail their way out.

While that process is something that needs to happen, having 2-3 spots in the bullpen likely dedicated to pitchers who are likely in this mode of their career is a concern for a team that is looking to compete with a manager that showed better bullpen usage in the second half of 2017, but still, with all of those arms that were going well, chose to send out Tyler Duffey for 11 1/3 innings in September as the team was striving for a playoff spot, in spite of Duffey posting a 5.14 second half ERA and a 7.15 ERA in ten September appearances.

All of those things can lead to concern with having too many young arms with spots on the roster.

Next: No, for deals

ST LOUIS, MO – OCTOBER 06: Trevor Rosenthal /

No, the Minnesota Twins are not done adding bullpen arms in order to take advantage of possible bargains on the market

One of the arguments I have been making since the beginning of the offseason was that the Twins were in a good spot to sit back on the free agent market and take advantage of who fell to them.

The top end guys aren’t likely going to take a deal. Even the guy I’ve been very interested in seeing the Twins sign, lefty Tony Watson, is not likely going to sign for a single season, likely still having a market for multiple years, even if he doesn’t get the money that early signees received.

However, one area that could be a huge boon for the Twins would be waiting and offering either a cheap major league deal or a minor league deal with a spring training invite. The Twins saw huge value out of that same market in Matt Belisle and Dillon Gee last season, and while they did end up releasing Craig Breslow from that same market, that is the benefit of the low-risk contract of that market is that if the pitcher doesn’t perform, they’re an easy cut.

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Another area that the Twins could exploit in this offseason’s market due to open money in upcoming seasons would be a few high-quality relievers that are coming off of injury and could be signed for a multi-year deal as they either heal this season or an incentive-based deal as they return this season.

One major candidate that the Twins are already in contact with, per reports, is Trevor Rosenthal. The flame-throwing reliever had Tommy John surgery in August of 2017, and he’ll miss all of 2018, but a deal like the Twins gave to Michael Pineda could pull in Rosenthal, and he would offer an elite arm in the bullpen for 2019.

Next: How Twins are affected by MLB offseason moves

So, three of these four reasons could honestly make sense as an answer to the initial question posed. What do you think? Should the Twins be done and focus energy instead on starting pitching, a bat, or elsewhere? Should the Twins still be pushing hard in the reliever market? Somewhere in between? Comment below!

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Minnesota Twins: Should Twins be done with bullpen additions?