Minnesota Twins: how the winter so far could affect the Twins

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Though it has been a slow winter, there have been a host of deals that could give an idea of what the Twins should expect as they head into the free agent market.

The Minnesota Twins are rumored to be interested and talking to a number of free agents that are still on the market. So far, the team has signed a pair of its own. How could the deals already signed affect how the Twins negotiate this winter?

Minnesota Twins deals and needs

The Twins have made two free agent deals thus far with major league contracts involved, and both happened on back-to-back days.

On December 13th, the team agreed to a 2 year, $13 million contract with free agent starting pitcher Michael Pineda. Pineda underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-2017, and he will miss most, if not all, of 2018.

The contract is fairly loaded into the 2019 season, with $2 million paid to 2018 and $8 million to 2019, when Pineda will be back from his surgery. This deal won’t really do anything for the 2018 Twins team unless Pineda is able to return for the bullpen in late season.

On December 14th, the Twins announced a deal with veteran reliever Fernando Rodney (the contract became official on the 15th). Rodney will make $4.5 million with the Twins in 2018, likely as the team’s closer, with an opportunity to make up to $6 million if he earns all of his incentives.

That has been all the Twins have done this winter so far at the major league level, though there have been some minor league contracts signed so far that could end up impacting the major league level.

Let’s take a look at the major league deals elsewhere, starting with rotation members…

Next: Starting Pitching Deals

Starting pitcher deals

While the top 4 starters available are all on the market, there has been some movement in the starting pitcher market.

The Cubs have spent the heaviest, giving Drew Smyly and Tyler Chatwood a combined $48 million in total contract value. Chatwood is really the one guy who was in the next tier below the top four starters that has signed so far, and he received just short of $13 million annually over 3 seasons in spite of a fairly spotty track record.

The other team to make multiple dips into the free agent starter pool has been the Milwaukee Brewers, though they’ve spent much more reasonably, getting Jhoulys Chacin for 2 years and $15.5 million and Yovani Gallardo for one year and $2 million.

The only other starting pitcher to receive multiple seasons is Miles Mikolas, who is coming back to MLB from overseas and received a modest 2 years and $15.5 million.

The one-year deals signed include CC Sabathia returning to the Yankees for $10 million, Mike Fiers going to the Detroit Tigers for $6 million, and Doug Fister to the Texas Rangers for $4 million.

The remaining starters on the market include the top four starters, Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn, and Cobb. Beyond that, the next tier below that remaining is somewhat less than desirable or has some significant red flags – Andrew Cashner, Trevor Cahill, Jaime Garcia, Jeremy Hellickson, John Lackey, Wade Miley, Tyson Ross, Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke, Chris Tillman, Jason Vargas, and Travis Wood.

Next: Bullpen deals

Reliever deals

Much like the starters, the top few relievers remain unsigned in the market, but there has been much more movement in the tiers below that absolutely top of the market.

The Rockies and Phillies have been the most surprisingly active among the “expensive” free agents. Jake McGee re-signed with Colorado and Bryan Shaw moved from Cleveland to Colorado for identical 3 year, $27 million contracts. The Phillies spent 2 years on both Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek, giving the former $18 million and the latter $16.25 million.

The Chicago Cubs were expected to be heavy into the free agent market, and they have done just that, signing Steve Cishek to $13 million over 2 seasons and Brandon Morrow to $21 million over the same two seasons. Both will bring the type of raw stuff to take over the closing job in Chicago, but the Cubs also are not necessarily done shopping for relievers, either.

The Rangers have pursued alternative routes with their bullpen signings this offseason. To this point, Mike Minor‘s $28 million over 3 years is the most that any reliever has received in overall value of contract, though Minor is very possibly going to be stretched out as a starter.

The Rangers have utilized non-traditional routes instead to strengthen their bullpen, signing Tony Barnette to a one-year, $1.5 million deal and Chris Martin to a 2-year, $4 million dollar deal. The Diamondbacks have taken similar non-traditional routes, signing T.J. McFarland and Yoshihisa Hirano to a total of %6.85 million in contracts.

The Astros have also signed a pair of quality bullpen arms, inking both Joe Smith and Hector Rondon both to 2-year deals. Smith signed a $15 million deal. Rondon was non-tendered by the Cubs, and the Astros were pleased to sign him to a $8.5 million total contract.

Juan Nicasio has led the way in multi-year pacts for a team that’s only really signed on player to this point, signing a 2 year, $17 million deal with the Mariners. Four other pitchers received multiple year deals, with Anthony Swarzak getting $14 million from the Mets, Luke Gregerson $11 million from the Cardinals, and Yusmeiro Petit and Brandon Kintzler each for $10 million.

On the one-year pacts, a few “flyer” types have earned small deals so far this offseason. Tom Koehler has topped that list with a $2 million deal with the Dodgers to move to the bullpen. Wily Peralta signed with the Royals to convert to the bullpen for $1.525 million. Jordan Lyles will also work on such a conversion for $1 million with the Padres.

Next: Hitter deals

Deals for bats

If the starting pitching market has been slow, the market for bats that would interest the Minnesota Twins for their designated hitter role has been flat-out sloth-like in its pace of development, with only one of the major names signed before Christmas.

That big name off of the board thus far has been former division rival, Carlos Santana, who signed with the Philadelphia Phillies for a guaranteed 3 years and $60 million. The Phillies were really not even a team mentioned in the market, so that set off a sort of ricochet of events.

First, the Red Sox signed back Mitch Moreland after reportedly being deep into the Santana discussions. Moreland signed a 2-year pact for $13 million guaranteed, but that will likely necessitate a move for the Red Sox for them to bring in their top target J.D. Martinez.

The Indians responded to the loss of Santana by making a wise signing of Yonder Alonso, giving him 2 years and $16 million. That signing should allow the Indians payroll flexibility to pursue other needs this season and also to keep their relievers Cody Allen and Andrew Miller, who are both free agents after this upcoming season.

Only one other bat that really fits this mold has signed, and that’s Matt Adams, who signed as a lefty bat off the bench for the Washington Nationals for a year and $4 million.

While the Twins are likely not in the market for J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, or Mike Moustakas, there are a number of others they could still be interested in. Let’s take a look at the three markets and how the signings so far could affect the prices the Twins would have to pay for the players left available as Christmas rolls around.

Next: Twins effects

How it all impacts the Minnesota Twins

While the markets have been moving slow, each have impacted the Twins’ moves this offseason going forward.

Relief market
This is the one that has been hit hard by signings so far and the one the Twins have participated in as well. However, the team certainly could still benefit from another veteran arm (or more).

One target that has been tied to the Twins that makes a lot of sense is right-hander Trevor Rosenthal. Rosenthal was known for his triple-digit fastball before Tommy John surgery ended his 2017 season. He would be one to consider for a similar deal to Pineda’s.

Beyond Rosenthal, there haven’t been major ties, though the Twins are out on the “big names”, so they’re likely looking at the next tier of guys. Tony Watson could be a guy to make sense, though based on the deals this winter, he very feasibly could be looking for 2-3 years and $8-9 million per season for that time frame.

Other arms that would make sense for the Twins would be guys like David Hernandez, Matt Belisle, or to look at a possible bullpen conversion for a hard-thrower like Drew Hutchison.

Starting pitchers
The Twins are still certainly playing at the top end of the market in starting pitching, and to line up their top target, Yu Darvish, it is quite likely that they will have to give him 6 seasons and $150 million or more. While that could be still a wise investment, there are some signs that lower-tier starters could be on the cheap while the top-end guys determine their destinations.

Guys like Jaime Garcia, Trevor Cahill, Miguel Gonzalez, and John Lackey could end up being big bargains based on contracts handed out already to quality starters like Jhoulys Chacin.

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Bats
While this market hasn’t been hit hard, it has shown that the price for cheap power is exactly that – cheap. So it won’t benefit the Twins any to wait on the market to scoop up some cheap deal, as all the bats should be attainable for a reasonable price.

Getting a quality hitter like Logan Morrison or Mark Reynolds certainly shouldn’t break the bank, likely staying under a $20 million commitment overall if 2 years are needed to make the deal happen.

For bats on the lower end of the scale, like Mike Napoli or Jose Bautista, a one-year flyer for $3-6 million should bring back some of that power the Twins are hoping to bring in.

Next: Twins trade profile: Cardinals

Hopefully we can see the Twins make a move in one of these three areas soon and strike before the players they want are gone or the deal they want disappears as well!

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Minnesota Twins: How the winter so far could affect Twins