Minnesota Twins: 5 Free Agent Pitchers Part 2
The Minnesota Twins continue to be at the center of rumors as they look to improve their pitching staff. Here are five more pitchers that could help.
Everyone knows the Minnesota Twins need to add pitching this offseason to keep up the winning ways they found in 2017. There are some needs in both the starting rotation and the bullpen, and there is money to spend on free agents to fill those needs.
What wasn’t known until recently, was just how much money and the level of willingness to spend that money there might be. It was about a week ago we released our initial list of free agent pitchers for the Twins to make offers on. Since I personally put that list together I will go ahead and say, I didn’t think there was any chance the Twins would actually go after some of the top-tier pitching free agents. Well, it now seems that they are.
The reality is setting in that the Twins front office is ready to give their best run at some of the best pitchers available as news like this comes out:
The twins, on the market for top pitching, like jake arrieta, but it's yu darvish who tops their wish list. https://t.co/FlxzbJB8fD
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 14, 2017
It isn’t only on the free agent market that the front office appears to be ready to be aggressive when acquiring pitching. It has also been rumored that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are exploring how to acquire some quality relief arms via trade.
The first big trade rumor reported was that the Twins have reportedly called to gauge the asking price for Raisel Iglesias of the Cincinnati Reds. Iglesias has served as the Reds closer and this past season saved 28 games with a 2.49 ERA. He also struck out 92 batters, good for 10.9 strikeouts per nine. Iglesias will demand a high price tag due to both his performance and the years of team control left as he isn’t arbitration eligible until 2021.
Darren Wolfson has also reported the Twins have been checking in on another closer:
Another of many teams the #MNTwins have planted trade seeds with is Tampa, I hear. Opinion moving that info. forward: Closer Alex Colome is certainly intriguing. Price tag, for obvious reasons, is high. pic.twitter.com/q3e7rE0tuU
— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) November 13, 2017
Alex Colome is the 28-year old closer for the Tampa Bay Rays. This past season Colome lead the American League in saves with 47. He also recorded a 3.24 ERA but his strikeout numbers were down to 7.9 strikeouts per nine from his 11.3 strikeouts per nine in his 2016 All-Star season.
This has all forced the realization that the Twins are legitimately looking to make a big addition to their pitching staff. Bigger than was anticipated by many. And that brings on the second installment of free agent pitchers the Twins can pursue and how they may fit within the Twins pitching staff.
Yu Darvish
Even after a bad World Series performance, Yu Darvish is still widely agreed upon as the best starting pitcher in this offseason’s free agent market. Darvish split his 2017 between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers, pitching 186.2 innings, racking up 209 strikeouts (11.1 SO/9) and a 3.86 ERA. For his career, Darvish has a 3.42 ERA and 11.0 SO/9.
Darvish’s body of work, regardless of World Series performance, warrants a big payday. MLB Trade Rumors projects Darvish at 6 years and $160 million. There are several around the baseball world that believe that number could soar even higher due to the lack of high-end starting pitching available and the demand there will be for it.
There are plenty of interesting storylines for a Twins-Darvish union. GM Thad Levine was part of the front office that brought Darvish to the United States and the Rangers as he served as their Assistant GM. Could that comfort and relationship help bring Darvish to Minnesota? If the money is there, a good standing relationship never hurts.
Imagine the headline, “Minnesota Twins name Yu Darvish Opening Day starter.” Maybe even, “Twins plan to go Darvish, Jose Berrios, and Ervin Santana in ALDS vs. the New York Yankees.” Those are some exciting headlines!
Jake Arrieta
It is in many ways hard to remember the struggling starter Arrieta was before he was traded from the Baltimore Orioles to the Chicago Cubs. There seemed to be an immediate turn around in his pitching performance once he put on a Cubs uniform. And in 2015 Arrieta turned in a Cy Young award-winning season with a 22-6 record and a1.77 ERA.
Arrieta’s strong World Series performance in 2016 when he pitched 11.1 innings and struck out 15 batters while only allowing 3 runs and another solid season in 2017 has Arrieta in line to get paid well. MLB Trade Rumors projects Arrieta at 4 years $100 million. That is $25 million a year for a pitcher that was almost given up on.
Entering his age 32 season, even though Arrieta has had good results the past several seasons, there are still reasons for hesitation about paying for his future performances. For starters, Arrieta’s velocity has declined since his Cy Young winning 2015 season.
While pitchers can still succeed as their velocity declines, one thing that seems true about Arrieta is his pitching success goes as his ability to miss bats go. As his Swinging Strike percentage and Strikeout per nine go up, his ERA goes down. In 2015 Arrieta had an 11% swing strike rate and a 1.77 ERA. In 2017 his swinging strike rate dropped to 9% and his a 3.53 ERA.
While Arrietta’s spin rate was given the credit for his rise to being an ace pitcher, there also seems to be a floor to how low his velocity can get before Hitters figure him out. It seems we may be watching that happen before our eyes, calling into question on whether Arrietta may be worth a $25 million a year deal.
Lance Lynn
Lance Lynn has been a constant in the St. Louis for several seasons. He joins fellow free agent starter Alex Cobb as pitchers who are only a few years removed from Tommy John surgery. Lynn had the surgery following the 2015 season and missed all of 2016.
In Lynn’s 2017 return, he made 33 starts for 186.1 innings. In those starts, he went 11-8, had a 3.43 ERA, and 153 strikeouts. As can be expected, Lynn’s strikeout per nine rate took a bit of hit in his return to the mound. Going from 8.6 in 2015 down to 7.4 in 2017.
Lynn has reportedly been asking for a contract in the range of a $100 million, but MLB Trade Rumors doubts he will see that kind of money. MLB Trade Rumors has projected Lynn to get a contract in the range of 4 years and 56 million. On top of that price tag, the Cardinals extended Lynn a qualifying offer, requiring any team that does sign him to surrender a draft pick in addition to the money paid in the contract. For the Twins, they would have to give up their 3rd pick in the 2018 draft to sign Lynn.
A concern when looking at Lynn as a potential signing comes out when looking at his stats. Lynn held a very solid 3.43 ERA in 2017 but it does look like that ERA could easily sore something north of 4 very quickly. That is reflected in a 4.82 FIP and 4.75 xFIP. Those type of numbers might be enough to keep teams second guessing on whether or not to give him the big contract.
Greg Holland
Relief pitcher Greg Holland is someone familiar to the Twins from his time with the Kansas City Royals. Holland spent his 2017 with the Colorado Rockies where he pitched 57.1 innings with a 3.61 ERA for a National League-leading 41 saves. Those numbers tell the story of an impressive season Holland as he also made his way back from Tommy John surgery after missing all of 2016 rehabbing.
The three-time all-star reliever has proven he has bounced back from surgery and will be one of the most desired bullpen arms on the market this offseason. MLB Trade Rumors projects Holland to sign for 4 years, $50 million. Holland was also extended a qualifying offer requiring the Twins to surrender their third draft pick in 2018 if they agree to a contract with Holland.
It took 18 months for Holland to rehab from surgery, but when he did he came back in impressive form. His fastball velocity still hits 93 mph and would be a great upgrade for the Twins bullpen. Wade Davis will get most of the attention in the relief market, but Holland will make a team very happy when he agrees to join their bullpen.
Steve Cishek
This last name is a bit of a diversion from the rest of the names on this list. We have explored primarily the top-tier of available pitchers in light of recent rumors surrounding the Twins, Steve Cishek may not make that top-tier but is still a worthwhile arm to look at.
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The one-time Marlins closer bounced around the league from the Cardinals, to the Seattle Mariners, and finally landed with the Rays in 2017 and proved he still has the ability to be a top-level reliever. In 49 appearances, Cishek struck out 41 batters and held a 2.01 ERA. More impressively he had a 1.09 ERA in 26 games with the Rays. This return to form has MLB Trade Rumors predicting Cishek will receive a 2 year, $14 million contract.
Cishek relies heavily on a Sinker. In an interview with David Laurilla at FanGraphs, Cishek mentions that his Sinker requires a lot of feel and batters tell him that it looks like it is coming in much faster than it actually is. Batters are right. Cishek’s average velocity on his sinker is right around 90 mph and according to Statcast’s perceived velocity tracking, Cishek’s sinker appears to average 92.24 mph.
Next: Minnesota Twins: 10 possible bargain free agent pitchers
We have covered a lot of the free agent pitching market here at Puckett’s Pond in the last couple weeks. Which free agents would you like to see the Twins pursue? How many starters and how many relievers should the front office try to sign? The front office appears ready to capitalize on a successful 2017 so stay alert for some signings to happen.