Minnesota Twins: 10 possible undervalued free agent pitchers to pursue

Tyler Chatwood, RHSP

Age on Opening Day: 28
2017 Salary: $4.4 million
2017 Stats: 33 G, 25 GS, 147 2/3 IP, 8-15, 1 save, 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 12.2% BB, 19% K
Info: If there is a pitcher that is less ideally suited for Coors Field, yet has found success as a Rockie to some degree, I don’t know who it would be. Mike Petriello had a great look at Chatwood for MLB.com, looking at a number of factors that we’ll discuss here.

Chatwood’s best pitch as an amateur was a curve that had a very tight, firm break due to its high spin rate. Anyone who’s watched baseball at Coors knows exactly how spin does at Coors, whether it’s a fastball, curve, or whatever. Interestingly, Chatwood also has an extremely good spin rate on his fastball as well.

This is seen fairly drastically in Chatwood’s splits. In 2017, Chatwood had a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP at home and a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road. While Chatwood did struggle with his control in 2017, he was coming off of Tommy John and in his first full season back, still finding his feel on his pitches.

Chatwood is also an extreme ground ball pitcher, but if he doesn’t get a ground ball, he tends to get high fly balls, which would play into the Twins defense very well with the athletic outfield behind him and an improved infield defense to handle the ground balls as well.

Chatwood was compared by Petriello to Charlie Morton, and while I’m not sure Morton’s playoff performance puts a proper spin onto that comparison, but looking at Morton’s 2017 regular season would be a very nice year to have in the Twins rotation – 14-7, 25 starts, 146 2/3 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.1% BB, and 26.4%K.

While there’s some level of gamble in hoping that Chatwood can become that level of pitcher, it’s not the type of gamble that couldn’t be mitigated with smart incentives into a contract. At his age, Chatwood could be lured well with a 3-year deal with a 4th year option, likely with an average base salary of $6 million with incentives based on performance added into the salary for the first three years that could take it as high as 3/$27M with incentives, and perhaps vestings in the 4th year option that vests at a $12 million option if he meets certain innings and performance standards in the first three seasons.

For a guy who’s not had a contract bigger than his 2017 salary previously, this would be a significant raise, and it would still give some risk mitigation to the Twins rather than going in too head-strong as they’ve done previously with contracts like the one given to Phil Hughes.

Tim Cooney, LHSP

Age on Opening Day: 27
2017 Salary: *minimum* (not on major league active roster)
2017 Stats: (rookie ball rehab appearances) 4 GS, 3 IP, 6.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 20% BB, 26.7% K
Info: It may seem very odd to have a 27 year-old who hasn’t thrown a pitch outside of rookie ball since 2015, but after a shoulder injury kept him out in 2016, he suffered a flexor strain in his elbow in 2017, and he was able to rest and rehab the joint, but he is a minor league free agent this winter.

Cooney wouldn’t require a major league deal, but he could pay off big, as he was an extremely promising young pitcher in the Cardinals minor league system in 2015 when he made his pro debut, showing well in 6 major league starts, throwing 31 1/3 innings, with a 3.16 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a 10/29 BB/K ratio.

He has had a long road back to health, but he would certainly be worth the minor league deal to give him a shot as his previous level of performance would be an asset as a 3/4 starter in a major league rotation from the left side, and that’s not something you come across just every day, especially with someone who has had some level of success at the major league level.

Wily Peralta, RHRP

Age on Opening Day: 28
2017 Salary: $4.275 million
2017 Stats: 19 G, 8 GS, 57 1/3 IP, 5-4, 7.85 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 11.9% BB, 19.3%
Info: Peralta is a bit of cheating. He’s primarily been a starter throughout his career, having made 120 starts over his 132 appearances in the majors. Peralta has used an incredible fastball/slider mix to flash as a starter, but his combination could tick up in effectiveness even further in the bullpen, and could be an absolutely dominant reliever with time to prepare and get used to the role rather than being “demoted” to the bullpen in mid-season as he has been in previous stints.

Peralta has had one of the highest average fastball velocities in the major leagues in the last few seasons, flashing his highest average in 2017, with a 96.5 MPH average. He also works with a mid-80s slider that has very sharp break at its best. However, poor feel for his change has limited Peralta’s effectiveness.

Out of the bullpen, Peralta has seen his velocity bump up to triple digits, and his sinker is even more effective out of the bullpen when he seems to be able to get on top of the pitch better, getting more effective movement low in the zone. He can then use his four-seam fastball up in the zone to adjust eye level and get plenty of swing-and-miss.

Peralta earned just over $4 million in 2017 primarily due to his being a starter. As a reliever, he could be a guy that could end up being a premier closer while likely taking a contract in the 3 years, $15M range, which would be much cheaper than any similarly skilled reliever on the market with “closer experience”.

Michael Pineda, RHSP

Age on Opening Day: 29
2017 Salary: $7.4 million
2017 Stats: 17 GS, 96 1/3 IP, 8-4, 4.39 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.1% BB, 22.4% K
Info: Pineda’s a guy who has always had peripherals that didn’t match up to his final numbers, and a big reason was his home park, so getting him out of New York could make him an absolutely elite starter. Of course, he’s going to miss most of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, so the opportunity for a creative deal with Pineda is ripe.

This season was an aberration compared to his previous years in New York for Pineda as he had an even split of home runs allowed between home and away starts before the injury that ended up costing him the rest of his season. Typically his season looks more like his 2016, when he allowed 20 home runs at home versus just 7 on the road.

Pineda works with a mid-90s cut fastball, mid-90s sinker, upper-80s change, and a mid-80s slider. I’ve always thought Pineda would benefit with something that was outside of the 10 MPH range he sits in with most of his pitches.

A contract that could work with Pineda could be an option-laden deal with something for a base like 2 years, $7-10 million, with a $1-2 million 2018 contract as he heals from Tommy John, then a base of $6-8 million for 2019 with incentives based on how high the base salary is. I’d personally structure the contract after that with a pair of vesting options, one for 2020 based on 150 innings in 2019 and a 2021 vesting option based on combined innings between 2019 and 2020. A player option could even be added for 2022 that is only achievable if both vesting options were met, which would indicate not only is Pineda healthy, but he’s throwing well enough that the team wants him out there.

Robbie Ross, LHRP

Age on Opening Day: 28
2017 Salary: $1.825 million
2017 Stats: 8 G, 9 IP, 7.00 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 11.1% BB, 20% K
Info: Ross’s 2017 numbers may leave some running to the hills, and frankly, it may make him the type of bargain that doesn’t even require a major league deal, but Ross is a guy who was a widely-hyped prospect coming up for the Rangers, Ross was a guy who had excellent breaking pitches to pair with his fastball that could sit into the mid-90s, but he never could develop a feel for a changeup.

After multiple years attempting to make it as a starter with the Rangers, the Red Sox converted Ross to the bullpen, where his lack of a change wasn’t an issue in him having success against hitters from both sides of the plate, and even pitching multiple innings. In 2015-2016, Ross threw in 108 games, tossing 116 innings, with a 3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a 43/109 BB/K ratio.

Ross had significant injuries to his elbow and then his back cost him 2017. It was notable in his velocity, seeing his fastball drop over 2 MPH and each of his breakers lose at least a half mile. While the velocity wasn’t major, the movement lost in his breaker was quite notable, as both were extremely valuable pitches and were negative value pitches in 2017.

However, he was throwing much better in AAA at the very end of the year, but the Red Sox chose not to activate him due to concerns with his back. His velocity and break were back with a healthy elbow, but the back left him not able to be activated. With an offseason of rest, he could be a very effective weapon in the bullpen from the left side.

Ross will likely cost just a one-year deal to bring him on board, but a good way to ensure you stand out would be to offer him a low base in 2017, something like $1 million for 2018 with a vesting option for 2019 at $4-5 million, making the full deal 2 years at $5-6 million, more than a deal for a quality lefty in the current market, especially one who is only 28.

CC Sabathia, LHSP

Age on Opening Day: 37
2017 Salary: $25 million
2017 Stats: 27 GS, 148 2/3 IP, 14-5, 3.69 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8% BB, 19.3% K
Info: Sabathia burst onto the scene as a 20 year-old rookie in 2001, winning 17 games for the Indians, finishing second in the Rookie of the Year award voting to Ichiro Suzuki. For a 7-year run from 2006-2012, Sabathia was one of the elite starters in all of baseball, tallying 1591 2/3 innings over 226 starts during the regular season in that time, winning 122 games, with another 101 1/3 innings in the playoffs for the Indians, Brewers, and the Yankees.

In 2013, injuries and innings began to take their toll on Sabathia. He still made 32 starts in 2013, but he was visibly not the same, and injuries kept him to just 8 starts in 2014. When he returned, Sabathia was obviously a different pitcher, no longer a guy who could sit in the mid-90s with his powerful fastball anymore and get tons of swing and miss. He had to re-learn how to pitch.

Doing so on the fly, and especially in the world’s largest media market and for the game’s most visible team led to plenty of negative views on Sabathia in 2014-2015, but starting in 2016, Sabathia began to show what the “new CC” would look like going forward – a guy who could control the game deep into the game by keeping hitters off balance, relying on quality control and his new cutter much more than his pure fastball, using movement on his pitches to create weak contact rather than overpowering hitters.

Sabathia is 37, and many teams will be backing away, thinking he is done, even after his impressive playoff performances this recent fall. Because of his age, a multi-year deal may be enough to get things done over the rest of the competition, especially with an option for a 3rd year. Going to Sabathia with a 2 years, $20 million base salary with $3 million of fairly easy, health-based incentives each season along with another $2 million of more difficult, “performance” incentives.

Adding a way for him to achieve a 3rd year with something like 380 innings over the first two years of the deal or something to that accord could certainly put the Twins over the top in negotiation, and it would give them a proven, inning-eating left-hander in the middle of the rotation for a few years as the depth of minor league pitching works its way to the major leagues.

Sabathia is also at 237 wins, so averaging a dozen wins over the three seasons would bring him up to 273 wins, and in the modern game, that could be as many wins as we see for a long time.

Joe Smith, RHRP

Age on Opening Day: 34
2017 Salary: $3 million
2017 Stats: 59 G, 54 IP, 3-0, 1 save, 3.33 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 4.7% BB, 33.2%
Info: The Ohio native had a chance to return to his home state team for the playoff run in 2017, but he’s really been a steady guy for many years as a sidearm pitcher who throws three pitches that effectively act as four from his side arm slot. Smith works with a fastball that sits in the upper-80s, a frisbee slider in the low-80s, and a seldom used change in the upper-70s. He uses his two-seam fastball low in the zone and his four-seam fastball to give a “rising” fastball appearance to hitters, giving him four looks, three of which (two-seam, four-seam, slider) he uses almost equally.

Smith is seldom the guy that is brought up when someone discusses elite setup men, but Smith has been exactly that for the last 11 years, sporting a career 2.97 ERA over 698 relief appearances and 624 2/3 innings with a 1.19 WHIP, 8.5% walk rate, and 21.2% strikeout rate.

The Twins could use a player that can be a consistent veteran arm in the bullpen, which Smith certainly would be, and while he’s a guy that would cost a few million dollars, he would be worth it for the stable arm in the bullpen with what will likely be quite a few young, dynamic arms that could have some volatile moments over the course of 2018. I’d imagine a 2 year deal for $8 million would get Smith, especially at 34, preferring the security of a multi-year deal than attempting to cash in big on annual salary over one year.

Huston Street, RHRP

Age on Opening Day: 34
2017 Salary: $9 million
2017 Stats: 4 G, 4 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 1/3 BB/K
Info: A first round pick in 2004 that immediately found his way to Oakland for the full season of 2005, saving 23 games with a 1.72 ERA over 67 games in his rookie season, Street has had a 13-year career as primarily the closer for the teams he’s been with, pitching for the Athletics, Rockies, Padres, and Angels.

However, one of the issues for Street throughout his career has been injuries. He missed significant time in just about every other year starting in 2007, and then he’s really struggled with health in the last two years with the Angels.

While Street has never been an elite velocity guy, he’s seen his average velocity dip down under 88 MPH, and with his change up sitting fairly steady at 80 MPH, the change has lost its effectiveness over the years, and Street seemed to pick that up, moving to more of a fastball/slider pitcher in 2017 in the short time he was healthy.

Street still has a very effective slider and the ability to spot his fastball in his rehab appearances before he had to shut down due to a combination of groin and rotator cuff injuries. He was reportedly healthy enough to return at the end of the season, but the Angels didn’t want to bring him back at that point.

Street likely is a guy who would require a small base salary with heavy incentives, perhaps something like 1 year, $1.5M with $3-5M of fairly easily attainable incentives, provided health, along with another $3-5 of “performance” incentives, ones that he’d have to be both healthy and effective to reach. Adding on a vesting option for 2019 could sweeten things enough to bring him in, and if he’s hurt to the point where he’s not usable, he’s just $1.5M tossed aside, not a major loss for the team (obviously a big loss for you or me, but not for an MLB team).

Tony Watson, LHRP

Age on Opening Day: 32
2017 Salary: $5.6 million
2017 Stats: 71 G, 66 2/3 IP, 7-4, 10 saves, 3.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.9% BB, 18.2% K
Info: A dominant reliever for a number of years with the Pirates before 2017, when he was affected by a high BABIP (.340) in his time with the Pirates to lead to a high amount of hits allowed, even though he still had a good walk rate. Once Watson went to the Dodgers, his BABIP normalized, and the numbers with the Dodgers (24 G, 20 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.8% BB, 11.5% K) were much more like the previous Watson seen.

Watson is a lefty who has stayed similar for years, working with an impressive sinker/slider/change three-pitch mix, using his four-seam fastball as a seeming 4th pitch, using the two fastballs in almost 65% of his pitches, splitting his pitches in 2017 between his slider and his change. Watson’s change is a plus change, and previously, the change has been used nearly twice as much as the slider.

More from Puckett's Pond

• Minnesota Twins: Does the MLB or the Twins have a Spending Problem?
• Minnesota Twins: 2 Possible Free Agent Reunions for 2023
• Minnesota Twins: Holiday Wish List for the rest of the Offseason
• Minnesota Twins: After signing with the Mets, Correa spurns Twins again
• Minnesota Twins: You Spin Me Right Round, Right Round

In watching Watson work with the Dodgers, it was clear that this is the same pitcher who has been an elite reliever for 7 years now, making an All-Star game, and posting a 2.68 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, a 6.9% BB rate, and a 21.8% K rate. While he’s not quite the strikeout artist that he once was, Watson has always been a guy who generated a ton of weak contact and ground ball contact.

Watson tends to see about 80% of his balls as ground balls and fly balls, not getting a ton of line drives, and he keeps hard contact rates low, not posting over a 25% hard hit rate since 2012 (it was 22.5% last season).

Because he’s not been a closer for a full season (though he was for the majority of one if you count his final two months of 2016 and first two months of 2017 combined), Watson very feasibly will not end up getting seen as a closer, but as much as Brandon Kintzler was a closer with his stuff, Watson could certainly be one, and the Twins have experience using a lefty closer before.

Next: Twins early offseason moves

The Twins could make a push for Watson, and if he wanted a chance to prove himself as a closer, they could do something like 2 years, $22 million. I would wager he would prefer to have years over annual salary, however, so perhaps something like 3/$30M with a team/vesting option to bring the contract to 4/$42 with a $2M buyout, guaranteeing him $32M.