Minnesota Twins: 5 Free Agent Pitchers to pursue

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The Minnesota Twins ended up with a below average pitching staff in 2017. Here is a look at some free agent pitchers that can improve the staff for 2018.

The offseason is underway for the Minnesota Twins and the rest of major league baseball. As soon as Tuesday, November 7th players can begin signing with new teams. Fans across Twins territory are hopeful that the Twins will make some significant additions to a team who surprised many by becoming one of the American League Wild Card teams this past season.

It was about this time last year that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were just beginning to get settled into their roles in Minnesota. There was a lot of work to be done and free agency was only a fraction of that work. It is safe to say that many were disappointed in the lack of impact moves that were made.

Jason Castro was the first signing, and a solid one at that, that the new front office made. They were aggressive and it paid off which may have gotten some of us fans a little too excited for what was to come. Fans were wanting pitchers and they received Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow. There was value to Belisle in the end, but in their second offseason as a front office, the hope is for something more impactful to improve the Twins below average pitching staff.

The Twins finished 19th in the majors with a team ERA of 4.60. Starting pitchers settled in right at that same position in MLB rank with a 4.73 Team ERA. The Bullpen doesn’t look any better with MLB rank of 22 and a team ERA of 4.40. As we continue to look around at other numbers they aren’t much more encouraging as the team settled in at the bottom of the league in several statistical categories.

As said, it is the offseason and a perfect time to address the weaknesses of the Twins. As you continue reading you will find five free agent pitchers who would be able to help the Twins outside of who they already have within the organization. These are not necessarily always the best pitchers on the open market, but they should improve some of those Twins MLB ranks from 2017.

Alex Cobb

This likely isn’t the Tampa Bay Rays pitcher many fans are hoping the Twins will pursue. Unlike Chris Archer, Alex Cobb is a free agent and would only take money to bring him into Minnesota. He is also not an ace-type that Archer would be but would be a very solidifying piece for the Twins rotation and a piece MLB Trade Rumors predicts will end up with the Twins for 4 years and 48 million.

In 2017, Cobb went 12-10 with 3.66 ERA over 179.1 innings. He has bounced back very well as a starter after missing the 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery. Throughout 2017, Cobb showed a progression towards his pre-surgery self. From 2016 to 2017, Cobb’s strikeout percentage increased from 15.4% to 17.3%. Also, his walk per nine rate decreased from 2.9 to 2.2 over that same time frame.

It looks as though one of the last steps of recovery for Cobb may be regaining control of his splitter that has lost velocity and he seems to have backed away from using. In 2014, pre-Tommy John, Cobb through his splitter 37.7% of the time and in 2017 only threw it 13.6% of the time. The decreased usage of the pitch may have partially resulted from the velocity of the pitch dropping from 87.9 mph to 85.9 mph. 2017 Cobb would be a big boost to the Twins, and if he continues to improve and inch closer to pre-Tommy John Cobb that would be a great bonus!

Tyler Chatwood

Tyler Chatwood is another pitcher, like Cobb, whose career was put on hold because of Tommy John surgery. He also missed the 2016 season and returned in 2016 to pitch for the Colorado Rockies. In 2017, Chatwood missed some time with a calf injury but still was able to log 147.2 innings with a 4.69 ERA.

Chatwood’s numbers are far from Ace level, but that isn’t the goal of this signing. He would be a depth signing with hope for some upside as he leaves the confines of Coors Field as his home ballpark. MLB Trade Rumors projects that Chatwood will sign for 3 years and $20 million this offseason. Which for reference isn’t too far off of what the Twins could end up paying Kyle Gibson this year. While we saw an improved Gibson for the last part of the season, overall Chatwood would be an upgrade next to Gibson’s 5.07 ERA over 158 innings.

Chatwood saw an increase in his fastball velocity this season as it sat right around 95 mph and he began mixing in a curveball more regularly as well. The way he pitches has always resulted in plenty of ground balls. In both seasons post-Tommy John surgery he has settled in around 58% of balls put in play resulting in ground balls. Ground balls are an asset when facing some the home run happy lineups across the landscape of baseball today.

Juan Nicasio

Relief pitcher Juan Nicasio, if signed by the Twins, would likely be penciled in as the opening day closer. Actually, every reliever mentioned in this space would be considered the Twins closer, which may just speak to the room for improvement there is in the Twins bullpen currently. Nicasio moved around a lot this season after starting out with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was a hot name at the trade deadline and a player that would have looked great with the Twins then, but he ended up being given away essentially to the Philadelphia Phillies instead, who in turn traded him a week later to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Nicasio finished the season in St. Louis as their closer. On the season, he appeared in 76 games with a 2.61 ERA and a strikeout rate of 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. After joining the Cardinals his numbers were even more impressive recording a 1.64 ERA and earning 4 saves in 9 appearances.

MLB Trade Rumors actually predicts that Nicasio will end with the Twins for 3 years and $21 million. At $7 million a year, that would give the Twins plenty of room to add another impact player in free agency. Nicasio’s ability to flirt with 10 strikeouts per nine makes him the sort of impact arm the Twins bullpen has been missing.

Bryan Shaw

A possible Falvey-Indians connection is our next relief pitcher on the list. And in all honesty, if the Twins could land both Bryan Shaw and Nicasio as they begin to remake the back end of their bullpen that would be a pretty good duo to build around. To use MLB Trade Rumors projections again, the two relievers should cost about the same as Shaw is also projected at 3 years and $21 million.

Shaw is plenty used to being the workhorse of a bullpen as he has appeared in the most games for a pitcher from 2013-2017. As is likely no surprise in 2014 (80), 2016 (75), and 2017 (79) Shaw led the American League in appearances in each of those seasons. While all those usage numbers can speak to Shaw’s durability, it also may call into question exactly how long can he hold up before major injury strikes. That will definitely be something the Twins or any team will just want to double check on as they evaluate him before signing.

Shaw, while effective, isn’t quite the type of arms we look at and clamor for in today’s age of baseball. He gets the job done with some pretty modest stuff relying mainly on a cutter that has increased in velocity over the past two seasons clocking in at 95 mph. As can be expected, that has resulted in a good ground ball rate of 55.9%. All that has resulted in Shaw never turning in an ERA above 3.52.

Wade Davis

When it comes to free agency, every fan wants to be wowed, right? This would be a signing that would qualify as a “wow” caliber move. Wade Davis is clearly the best reliever on the market after turning in another solid year with the Chicago Cubs. Davis busted onto the scene in 2015 after the Kansas City Royals turned to him to take over as closer and the starter turned reliever never looked back.

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Davis appeared in 59 games for the Cubs, held a 2.30 ERA and recorded 32 saves. Through his 58.2 innings, Davis recorded 79 strikeouts putting him at a stellar 12.1 strikeouts per nine. Davis is the definition of shut down, power-armed reliever. That would clearly come at a price and MLB Trade Rumors sets that price at 4 years, $60 million. Their prediction is that the Houston Astros will be the one to pay that price, but names the Twins as a potential fit.

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The question will be, should we want the Twins to sign Davis? Yes, we want his talent in the bullpen, that is clear. Do we want his contract? That starts an entirely different conversation. Davis isn’t without his history of injury and his contract would almost entirely end the Twins offseason spending without an increase in payroll. Which the Twins will hopefully be able to do, but it is no guarantee. So while a Davis signing would certainly “wow,” there are questions to be answered before wishing to heavily in this direction.

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