Minnesota Twins options for a shutdown bullpen in 2018
As we start looking to the Minnesota Twins offseason plans, attention turns to the 2018 roster and the makeup of the team.
The Minnesota Twins are about to enter the offseason as a playoff team. For fans that’s a very fun thing to consider – how can the team make itself better going into 2018 to be an even bigger threat once they get to the playoffs?!
Now that we’ve looked at the 2017 season in review, it’s time to look ahead to the Twins 2018 season and what they could do to make the team better!
Roster Considerations
The current Minnesota Twins 40-man roster contains 45 players, due to the 60-day disabled list. The Twins have 4 major league free agents, meaning they’re going to have to either non-tender one of their 8 arbitration-eligible players or designate a player for assignment just to get to the base 40.
That means for every signing or trade, at least one 40-man player will need to be figured in to be lost along the way. There certainly are some guys that could be designated for assignment. The names in question were mentioned on the second page of the recent discussion of Rule 5 eligible players. There are a host of players that would qualify as guys that could be put into DFA limbo and likely wouldn’t be lost.
The other end of things is that if the Twins would make the acquisition a trade, they could use one of their current 40-man players within the trade to help clear the roster spot right in the deal.
So, after reviewing some possible options for a big move for a starting pitcher and a big bat that could be signed in free agency, let’s take a look today at the options the Minnesota Twins could pursue for an option (or two or three) at the back of the bullpen to lock down the end of the game. After all, we’ve seen teams recently with starting rotations at the level of the Twins current rotation but with an absolutely elite bullpen that were able to pitch themselves deep into the playoffs just as well as a team with multiple “ace” starters.
In-house options
The Twins certainly struggled out of the bullpen for most of the 2017 season, but they found something special in the last two months of the year, and perhaps someone in that group could be a guy to step into that closer’s role. There are also a host of high-quality relievers in the upper minors ready for an opportunity.
John Curtiss
Curtiss had an impressive minor league season in 2017, making 39 appearances, throwing 49 1/3 innings, with a 1.28 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a 22/68 BB/K ratio between AA Chattanooga and AAA Rochester. In late August, he was called up to the major leagues to fill into the bullpen. He flashed his upper 90s velocity with excellent movement on his fastball, a change that sits in the upper 80s to lower 90s and a slider that has excellent bite. Curtiss had two nasty games where he totaled 2/3 innings pitched, 5 hits allowed, 6 runs allowed, 2 walks, and a strikeout. Outside of that, he only allowed a run in one other game in his 7 other appearances. Curtiss also had a strikeout in all but one of his 9 appearances with the big league club to close out the year. When you take out those two blow up games, Curtiss had a 2.25 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, and a 0/9 BB/K ratio over the 8 innings in those 7 other appearances, a pretty dominant line. Even with the blowup games added in, he still had a 1.27 WHIP, which shows just how well he threw overall.
Moya had an incredible season in AA as the closer for Arizona’s AA team until he was acquired by the Twins, where he actually improved on a season where he had a sub-1 ERA. Overall, his minor league line on the season was 47 games, 58 1/3 innings, 24 saves, a 0.77 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and a 15/87 BB/K ratio. In the majors, Moya didn’t have that level of success, but still showed well in a September debut, with a 4.26 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 2/5 BB/K over 6 1/3 inning. Moya doesn’t come with an elite fastball, averaging around 90 MPH, usually topping out around 93, but his change is one of the most wicked offspeed pitches in the entire Twins system, and that two-pitch combination could make for an elite LOOGY, but add in a slider that he struggled with in the majors but has upside to be a swing and miss pitch, and Moya could be a guy to be an important part of the length of the 2018 bullpen.
While not your traditional closer in velocity, Hildenberger has the stuff and arm angle to be a premier piece in a dominant overall bullpen. You see guys like
Darren O’Day,
Brad Ziegler,
Joe Smith, and
Alex Claudiohave success and even close for periods of time due to how difficult it is to hit a guy who is coming from that sidearm angle. Trevor’s fastball may average around 89 with a frisbee slider that comes in around 75, but the angles those pitches get because of his sidearm delivery can allow him to be effective as long as he can control the pitches.
One of the more underreported things with the 2017 Twins was the heat coming from the right hand of Busenitz. Acquired by the Twins in the deal that sent
Ricky Nolascoand
Alex Meyerto the Angels and brought
Hector Santiagoas well to the Twins, Busenitz was an unknown reliever. He made 24 appearances in the minor leagues this season, with a 1.78 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 10/39 BB/K over 35 1/3 innings. He threw 31 2/3 innings at the major league level, with a 1.99 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 9/23 BB/K ratio. He averaged 95.7 MPH with his fastball, reaching 98-99 frequently in games, pairing that with a spike curve at 83 MPH that had hitters drilling the ball into the ground. Busenitz may not be a young guy at 27 years old already, but he has the raw stuff to play well at the back end of a bullpen, even if he isn’t a name guy.
Tyler Jay
The move of Tyler Jay to the bullpen was supposed to allow for him to move quickly to the major leagues, but instead, he missed most of the season with issues initially diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, but later found to not require surgery. He is throwing extremely well at the Arizona Fall League, and he should be able to move quickly with health to the major leagues as a lefty that can get swing and miss from both sides of the plate with a mid-90s fastball and a hard-biting slider.
Other options
The Twins could call up some of their minor league options to be used in the major league bullpen, and that could be a way to use 1-2 spots in the bullpen to possibly find a guy who breaks through in 2018. Guys like Jake Reed, Mason Melotakis, Randy Rosario, J.T. Chargois, and Michael Tonkin have all been guys that have been known about by the team for quite some time and haven’t made it for one reason or another, but the talent is there, and 2018 could be that breakthrough year.
In the minors, however, the Twins have little else with as much depth as they do high-end relief arms. Guys like Andrew Vasquez, Nick Anderson, Luke Bard, Sam Clay, Alex Robinson, Thomas Hackimer, and Ryan Eades have all been at the upper levels of the minors to some degree, and they will enter 2018 in a similar position to where guys like Curtiss and Moya were in 2017.
Available Free Agents
The team would have to let someone go from the 40-man to make a signing, but in the case of a handful of players available, that could be worth the risk:
Wade Davis
While many will have Davis as the premier name guy available on the market due to his exposure throwing for the Royals and Cubs in high-leverage situations in the playoffs the last few years, he’s a guy to be concerned about as a significant investment. This season was the third straight season Davis’ average fastball velocity declined, along with the average velocity on all of his other pitches as well. He does have a very solid fastball, cutter, curveball combination of pitches, but with his recent injury hiccups and the heavy load his arm just had in the playoffs, I’d stay away.
Reed has been a bullpen mainstay in the major leagues almost immediately after he was selected by the White Sox in the 3rd round of the 2010 draft. He made his debut in 2010 and was the White Sox closer in 2012. He had some up and down times with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but he rediscovered his effectiveness with the Mets when acquired in Queens in 2015. In 2017, combined between the Mets and Red Sox, Reed made 77 appearances, throwing 76 innings, saving 19 games, with a 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 15/76 BB/K ratio. Reed doesn’t work with an overpowering fastball, but he locates extremely well and gets late wiggle that allows the pitch to play up well. He pairs that primarily with a mid-80s slider, and the two pitches have played up in the last two years, though his slider struggled in its effectiveness after his trade to Boston midseason of 2017. As one of the youngest back-end bullpen relievers on the market, he could draw a big market, however.
Bryan Shaw
Shaw has been an underrated part of the dominant Cleveland bullpen the last few seasons. Shaw is a workhorse that has led the major leagues in appearances 3 of the last 4 seasons. Over the last 4 seasons, Shaw has averaged 77 appearances, 71 innings, a 3.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and a 23/65 BB/K ratio. While he wouldn’t be a top choice for a closer, Shaw would be a workhorse middle reliever, throwing his mid-90s cutter and low-80s slider to get out hitters. Shaw would be the type of signing that really helped to lengthen out the bullpen, giving the Twins a reliable arm that could throw multiple days in a row with effectiveness.
Watson spent 2013-2015 as one of the most dominant middle relievers in the entire game, which was all the more impressive as he was doing it from the left side. In 2016, Watson took over as the team’s closer in the second half of the season and was quite good. He struggled out of the gate as the closer with the Pirates this season, but he still has elite stuff from the left side. Interestingly, in a season where fly balls became the talked-about thing, Watson actually had his lowest fly ball rate of his major league career, with less than 30% of all hits as fly balls. While Watson once had an elite change to go with a very good fastball and an above-average slider, his change fell off in 2017. Getting his feel back for his change could allow Watson to move back to that elite reliever role, and he could be a guy that is able to be signed for less than other more “name” closer types, like a Holland or Davis.
Trades within the division
Other trades around the league would make some sense, but trades within the division always require a bit more care. However, there are a few targets that may make some sense:
Kelvin Herrera
A fire-balling middle reliever during the Royals’ World Series runs, Herrera has naturally made the transition to closer, using his high-velocity fastball (averaging 97.5 MPH in 2017), low-90s cutter, upper-80s change, and hard upper-80s slider to dominate hitters. Some issues with control and home runs had him demoted from the closer role for a bit this season, but he recovered his role by the end of the season. This is Herrera’s last arbitration season, becoming a free agent after next year, which is why the Royals may want to consider moving him. The Twins could acquire him and hope to extend him before the season.
In a last attempt to make a run with their “core” group that led them to 2 World Series appearances, the Royals acquired Buchter at the trade deadline from the Padres. He had always been a guy who had an impressive fastball, cutter, and curveball, but he’s added a slider that has allowed him to be an elite reliever from the left-hand side at 30 years old. Buchter can run his fastball into the upper 90s with a mid-80s slider and low-90s cutter. He may not be a guy to plug into a closer role, but he could be a dominant lefty in the bullpen for the Twins, and he’s still a year away from his first time through arbitration. If a call is made on Herrera, hopefully Buchter is mentioned as well.
Nate Jones
The White Sox believed so strongly in Jones that they gave him a long-term deal in the 2015-2016 offseason that runs through 2018 with three years of options to follow. If he makes all four seasons, Jones would only be paid $12.55M, which is a tremendous price for the pitcher that Jones was before he was injured in 2017 (contract numbers adjusted after his surgery). In 2016, Jones made 71 appearances, throwing 70 2/3 innings, with a 2.29 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a 15/80 BB/K ratio. Jones has a monster fastball, running up to triple digits. Jones had a nerve reassignment surgery in July that kept him out for the rest of the season, but he should be ready to go for preseason. However, the lack of security in his availability should allow for his price to be fairly low this offseason, so if the Twins were to offer a “sweetheart” deal, they could acquire a possible dominating arm.
“Big” trade options
While we looked at guys who were perhaps a bit more under radar in the previous sections, but with the depth of options, we will just look at big options here that would likely be a major impact reliever and/or a closer.
Mychal Givens, Baltimore Orioles
We did profile Orioles reliever Brad Brach in July as a trade deadline possibility, and he could be an option as well, but if the team was going to go big, why not go for Givens, who has comparable stuff, is 4 years younger, and actually had better numbers in 2017? Givens isn’t even arbitration eligible until after next season, meaning he’s very cheap for a team right now, not reaching free agency until after the 2021 season. That also means he’ll cost a significant amount in trade, but the 27 year old righty has a career 2.75 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last 3 seasons in 157 appearances and 183 1/3 innings, posting a 67/222 BB/K ratio. Givens works with hard stuff, using a fastball that averages 95.8 MPH and a 87.6 MPH slider. He sprinkles in a change that runs in the mid-80s as well to really throw off hitters.
Barraclough made a big impression in 2016 when he struck out 113 batters in just 72 2/3 relief innings. He showed similar production in 2017 with 76 strikeouts over 66 innings. The big righty can run his fastball up to triple digits, but he can struggle with his location and was hit for 5 home runs in 2017 after allowing just 1 in his first 100 games pitched in the major leagues. Barraclough is not eligible for arbitration until after next season and not a free agent until after 2021, so he likely won’t come cheap in the trade market, but he’d certainly offer the sort of high-velocity, strikeout stuff desired at the back of the pen.
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Neris has been an impressive performer the last two years for the Phillies, but entering into his first season of arbitration with a year as a closer, he’s going to be expensive in arbitration, so the Phillies are listening. The price certainly won’t be cheap in trade, but the closer with one of the best split-finger fastballs in the game has impressive strikeout stuff as well as 5 pitches that he can go to out of the closer role (4-seam fastball, 2-seam fastball, split-finger fastball, change, slider), though he does use a fastball variation in almost 98.5% of all pitches.
Perhaps the most prominent lefty on the market this offseason will be Minnesota native Brad Hand, who had an elite season for the Padres in 2017. Hand is entering his second season of arbitration this season and just had a season where he moved into the closer role, saved 21 games, and struck out over 100 batters as a reliever. He’ll be under team control through 2019, so there’s just two years of control, but Hand has already had two seasons of high level performance, striking out 215 hitters the last two seasons in 168 2/3 relief innings.
Next: Twins top 100 prospects complete list
Cincinnati Reds arms
The Reds have a few arms with the power that you would want in the role, and they could have a varying degree of attainability. I personally have thought big righty Sal Romano was destined for the bullpen for quite some time, and his time in the majors this year did little to dissuade that opinion, in spite of making 16 starts. Ariel Hernandez may be a late bloomer, but he has an arm that can pump out upper 90s velocity and was just a rookie in 2017, so he could be more easily acquired possibly
The big get would be righty Raisel Iglesias, who is under contract until 2020, though he still has a season of control through arbitration after that, so he’s truly controllable through the 2021 season. He was a big signee out of Cuba, with a three pitch mix that could work both as a starter and reliever, though he has found himself at home as the key of the Reds bullpen, using a three pitch mix with a fastball that can rub triple digits, a wicked fastball, and a change with nasty movement. He’d likely cost as much or more than some “ace” starters in the trade market.