Could the Minnesota Twins sign a former enemy bat?
As we start looking to the Minnesota Twins offseason plans, attention turns to the 2018 roster and the makeup of the team.
The Minnesota Twins are about to enter the offseason as a playoff team. For fans that’s a very fun thing to consider – how can the team make itself better going into 2018 to be an even bigger threat once they get to the playoffs?!
Now that we’ve looked at the 2017 season in review, it’s time to look ahead to the Twins 2018 season and what they could do to make the team better!
Roster Considerations
The current Minnesota Twins 40-man roster contains 45 players, due to the 60-day disabled list. The Twins have 4 major league free agents, meaning they’re going to have to either non-tender one of their 8 arbitration-eligible players or designate a player for assignment just to get to the base 40.
That means for every signing or trade, at least one 40-man player will need to be figured in to be lost along the way. There certainly are some guys that could be designated for assignment. The names in question were mentioned on the second page of the recent discussion of Rule 5 eligible players. There are a host of players that would qualify as guys that could be put into DFA limbo and likely wouldn’t be lost.
The other end of things is that if the Twins would make the acquisition a trade, they could use one of their current 40-man players within the trade to help clear the roster spot right in the deal.
Let’s start looking at the offseason with those “pie in the sky” moves that the Twins could make, specifically, seeking out a “big bat” to sit in the middle of the lineup and mash. That would mean the corresponding move would likely be that Robbie Grossman is non-tendered in arbitration, but it would provide the Twins a bopper in the middle of the things. This offseason three of the best options end up being former American League Central enemies!
J.D. Martinez
Originally part of the current World Series participant, the Houston Astros, Martinez couldn’t carve out a starting role with the Astros, hitting .251/.300/.387 over 3 years with the Astros, playing 252 games and just under 900 at bats.
He broke out with a full-time job in Detroit, however, being one of the first guys who really took advantage of changing his swing plane to see the ball absolutely jump off of his bat. His first season in Detroit, he hit .315/.358/.553 with 23 home runs and 30 doubles over 480 plate appearances.
Over his three-plus seasons with the Tigers, Martinez has battled injuries, having just one season where he played more than 125 games or had more than 500 plate appearances, but he’s still produced plenty, even when only on the field for 2/3 of the season. He hit .300/.361/.551 over 458 games as a Tiger, knocking out 99 home runs.
He’s also done his fair share of that work against the Twins, playing 54 games against the team, coming up to the plate 221 times, hitting .302/.348/.522 with 10 home runs.
He did have a pretty amazing final run with the Arizona Diamondbacks this season, hitting .302/.366/.741 with 29 home runs over 62 games after being traded by the Tigers. The D-backs will certainly make a strong effort to re-sign Martinez, but he will be a guy that will draw plenty of interest.
For the Twins, Martinez would provide significant right-handed power, which is a premium thing in the modern game, though the team would want to ensure that his higher walk rate this season wasn’t a fluke, as he walked at a 10.8% rate, the first time he was ever over 10% in his career.
If Martinez could be signed for 2-3 years at $20M-25M, he would certainly be someone the Twins should consider. Beyond that in years or annual salary should be something where the Twins walk away.
Justin Upton
Originally the #1 overall pick in 2005 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, the big-swinging righty hitter has morphed from the guy who was once a 20-20 guy with the Diamondbacks, though he still has some ability on the base paths. Coming to the majors at just 19, Upton had a big start to his career with Arizona, hitting .278/.357/.475 with 108 home runs over 731 games.
The Braves acquired the outfielder from Arizona in a big trade, and he had two very streaky seasons with the Braves where he showed himself to be a power hitter, but that his defensive skills, once a positive, had now declined to where he was a below-average defender.
The Braves made him a focus of their rebuild, trading him with one season before his free agency to the San Diego Padres, where he had an excellent first half in 2015, but he fell off in the second half. The Tigers signed him as a free agent after the 2015 season, and he has topped 30 home runs both of the last two seasons.
This year, he hit .273/.361/.540 with 35 home runs, earning his 4th All-Star selection. He finished the season with a month as part of the Los Angeles Angels.
Upton still has 4 years and $88.5M left on his contract, but he does have the opportunity this offseason to opt-out of the deal. Of course, that would mean he’s looking for either more than 4 years or more than ~$22M per season if he would opt out, so that should be considered in the Twins bidding.
Jay Bruce
Considered one of the most advanced high school bats in his draft class, Jay Bruce was selected 12th overall in 2005 by the Cincinnati Reds. Just 3 years later, he was getting 450 plate appearances with the big club, hitting 21 home runs.
Bruce had a tremendous 9 seasons with the Reds, hitting .249/.319/.470 with 233 home runs. He doesn’t draw a ton of walks, strikes out a good chunk of times, but he still has plenty of power.
In 2016, after 9 season in Cincinnati, Bruce was traded to the Mets in the midst of an All-Star season. He didn’t finish well for the Mets in the second half, hitting .250/.309/.506 between the two teams with 33 home runs.
Bruce opened this season with the Mets, hitting well this season for the Mets. He was moved to the Indians in midseason, hitting .248/.331/.477 with 36 home runs on the season, 7 of them with the Indians after he was moved there.
Bruce has seen the Twins a number of times in interleague, playing 14 games, hitting .236/.283/.436 with 2 home runs in 60 plate appearances, however, he’s hit much better at Target Field in 3 games (.333/.429/.750, 2 2B, 1 HR).
One of the concerns with Bruce is that he’s left-handed. However, with the emergence of Byron Buxton in 2017 and the presence of Brian Dozier, the Twins do have a balance of right-handed power, which is something that they have struggled with for a few years. In fact, having left-handed power could be an asset for the Twins.
Bruce would likely be a 1-2 year signing for the Twins if they went after him, and he’s likely to require $10-15M per season to do it.
Carlos Santana
One of the major thorns in the side of the Twins for the last 8 seasons, Santana was originally a catcher when the Indians acquired him from the Dodgers for former Minnesota Twins infielder Casey Blake.
After coming up in 2010 behind the plate, Santana moved out to first base in 2014. He’s nothing elite defensively at first base, but with Edwin Encarnacion and Mike Napoli on the team the last two years, he didn’t have the opportunity to do a lot of DH work.
At the plate, Santana has shown solid power, excellent on base ability, and he’s been improving his strikeout rate the last two seasons. He’s hit .249/.365/.445 with the Indians, but the last two seasons, he’s been able to keep his walk rate under 100 each season, and he’s combined for 57 home runs.
Santana has done plenty of damage to the Twins over the years, hitting .254/.351/.470, and 25 home runs. He’s been a touch better at Target Field in his career, playing 68 games, hitting .260/.348/.494 with 14 home runs.
Santana would fit in well with the Twins as a DH. His switch-hitting would allow him to help the lineup no matter which pitcher they’re facing. He would also work well with giving Mauer a day off at first base. At 32 years old soon after opening day in 2018, Santana is going to be a guy who gets less than likely expected due to his age and lack of monster power (he’s topped 30 home runs just once), but he has averaged 24 home runs the last 7 seasons, so there’s plenty of “boom” there.
Others considered
While the previous mentions are the ones that fit the roster best, the Twins really could pursue other free agent bats as well. However, the team could make some interesting choices if they want to go another direction.
One of the more elite players in the league when he’s healthy typically, Gonzalez had an odd season in 2017, hitting just .262/.339/.423 with the Rockies with just 14 home runs, in spite of playing 136 games. Gonzalez did end the season red-hot, however, hitting .377/.484/.766 with 6 of his 14 home runs in the single month, so that power is still in there, and he could be a big pickup, especially if he’s on the cheap.
Eric Hosmer is another division guy, though he’s going to likely draw a long-term deal as far as contract length at just 28 years old, and he would create some issue with local guy Joe Mauer as to who would play first base as both are excellent defensive first sackers.
Hosmer’s teammate Mike Moustakas could be another big home run bat the Twins could pursue. He has an excellent power bat for sure, but he’s a third baseman, and the one major power guy on the Twins team currently happens to play that position!
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Two first base/DH types really put up big numbers in 2017, but they hadn’t done such previously. Logan Morrison and Lucas Duda both ended up having huge power years and both finished the season playing for the Tampa Bay Rays. Morrison hit .246/.353/.516 with 38 home runs while only hitting 23 home runs at his peak in 7 previous MLB seasons.
Duda has been a guy who has struggled to stay healthy in the National League with the New York Mets. While he hit just .175 with the Rays after he was picked up mid-season, he hit 13 home runs in just 200 plate appearances. Overall, he hit .217/.322/.496 with 30 home runs, hiw second 30 home run season in his career, but he had 100 less plate appearances in 2017 than he had in that previous 30-HR season in 2015.
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Former Twins killer Jose Bautista will also be an interesting guy to follow. He had his option declined by Toronto already, making him a free agent this offseason, and after two tough seasons, he could find himself without a big contract – or even a major league deal. If that happens, the Twins should absolutely take a run at him for a low-cost option with Bautista’s career .324/.410/.794 line over 25 games at Target Field with 15 home runs.