MINNEAPOLIS, MN - OCTOBER 8: Minnesota Twins mascot rallies the crowd during Game One of the American League Championship Series against the Anaheim Angels on October 8, 2002 at the Hubert H. Humphrey Dome in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Angels 2-1. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – OCTOBER 8: Minnesota Twins mascot rallies the crowd during Game One of the American League Championship Series against the Anaheim Angels on October 8, 2002 at the Hubert H. Humphrey Dome in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Angels 2-1. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images) /
With the season completed, it’s time to look ahead to the 2017-2018 Minnesota Twins offseason. Today, we look at the players who could be eligible for Rule 5 and new minor league free agents.
The Minnesota Twins have completed their season, and we at Puckett’s Pond are preparing now for the offseason of a PLAYOFF Twins team.
Puckett’s Pond staff have recapped the offseason free agents and arbitration eligible players already. Now we’ll take a look at players that may be a bit less known to the average fan.
Minor League Free Agent “newbies”
Seth Stohs over at Twins Daily put together an article in July on the topic, though things have changed quite a bit since then.
The minor league free agents that are going to be “new” are guys that were drafted in 2011 and have yet to be added to the major league 40-man roster. That list is fairly short:
Levi Michael – Michael was the Twins top draft pick in the 2011 draft, selected 30th overall out of the University of North Carolina. He has shown an ability to draw a walk in his minor league career, but inconsistent ability to make quality contact has led to him stalling out in the upper minors, really without a set position, playing both second base and the outfield, primarily center field. He very well could end up re-signed as a minor league free agent, but he almost certainly won’t be added to the 40-man roster as he’s struggled to crack the starting lineup in AA and AAA in the last two seasons.
Dereck Rodriguez – The son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez, Dereck was drafted in the 6th round out of high school in 2011. Rodriguez was originally drafted and started his career as an outfielder, but after three seasons at the plate, he moved exclusively to the mound, so his development path is a bit behind others in his draft class, but he’s made steady and sure progress since moving to the mound, moving from Elizabethton to Chattanooga over four seasons of pitching. Rodriguez is the one of the trio here that could possibly be added to the 40-man roster before the end of the World Series, but he also may be let go in minor league free agency and then brought back, though other teams may offer a 40-man spot to Rodriguez as he has a quality arm that could draw heavy interest.
David Hurlbut – Hurlbut is a left-handed pitcher that the Twins drafted in the 28th round out of Cal State-Fullerton in 2011. He’s had success in the minors as a starter and swing man, but he has gotten by with less than stellar stuff, fitting the profile of a “pitchability” lefty. He spent 2017 as a primary starter, making 23 appearances, 22 of them starts, throwing 130 2/3 innings, with a 3.44 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and a 30/103 BB/K ratio. He’s likely going to be allowed to hit the minor league free agent market, but he could end up re-signed on a minor league deal.
Rule 5 Rules
The general rules come down to the age of a player when signed. If they were 18 or younger at signing, they have 5 seasons to play with their signing club before becoming Rule 5 eligible. If they were 19 or older, they have 4 seasons to play with their signing club before eligible.
That means (in general) international free agents and high school picks from 2013 and college picks from 2014 are going to be eligible for the first time this year. Those who were eligible previously but not selected are also eligible.
Minnesota Twins roster room
Currently, the Twins 40-man roster has 45 names listed on it due to 60-day Disabled List assignments. Those will all be erased before the offseason begins as there is no such thing as an offseason disabled list, meaning anyone injured on the 40-man roster is occupying an active spot, not a 60-day DL spot.
The Twins currently have free agents that will come off of the roster. The team let Glen Perkins know that his option will not be picked up, so that takes care of their one option case. On top of Perkins, Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago, and Matt Belisle are all free agents. They also have 8 players who are eligible for arbitration – Kyle Gibson, Eduardo Escobar, Ryan Pressly, Chris Gimenez, Ehire Adrianza, Trevor May, Robbie Grossman, and Michael Tonkin. Just to get to 40, one of the arbitration eligible players or one of the current players on the 40-man roster needs to be designated for assignment off of the 40-man roster.
So for every one of these in the next few slides that is added to the 40-man before the Rule 5, one person currently on the Rule 5 will need to be removed as the Twins don’t even have enough free agents to cover the guys they have currently on 60-day DL currently on the 40-man roster.
Let’s start with the guys that are absolutely worth making room.
Top priority adds
Lewin Diaz, 1B Sweet-swinging lefty-hitting first baseman out of the Dominican Republic. Diaz has been slowly working his way up the Twins system, breaking through with Elizabethton in 2016 when he hit .310/.353/.575 with 9 home runs in 46 games. He led the entire Twins organization in doubles at Cedar Rapids in 2017. He may have only been in low-A ball, but with the sweet swing he has and an advanced ability to avoid striking out for a future power hitter. Diaz is the type of guy that a team could hide on their bench for a year as a pinch hitter and then send down to AA/AAA for a year and come back as a beast. Regardless, the Twins don’t want to lose him.
Stephen Gonsalves, LHP MLB Pipeline’s pitching prospect of the year in the organization is incredibly talented, and he should factor into the competition for the starting rotation in 2018. Gonsalves has worked himself to the top pitching prospect in the organization, and he’ll be an easy guy to protect.
Zack Littell, RHP On his third team in a calendar year, you’d think there’s something “wrong” with Littell, but instead it’s a matter of him being that highly desired that he’s been the focus of two acquisitions by two teams that ended up in the playoffs this season. Littell may not have an ace upside in his pitches, but he has a quality array of pitches that could be very good as a #2/#3 pitcher if he hits his top ends, and Twins fans would be very pleased with that in their rotation for sure. Littell is coming off an impressive minor league season where he was the first pitcher in well over a decade to win 20 games in a minor league season.
Lewis Thorpe, LHP After two seasons where he didn’t throw a regular season pitch, the work that Thorpe did on the mound in 2017 was excellent. He’s made just one start above A-ball, but he showed extremely well in 2017 after two seasons missed, showing very good velocity, a quality breaking pitch, and good feel for his change after two years off. He would likely be gobbled up in a hurry in the Rule 5 if not protected.
If there’s room on the 40, these will get protected
Luke Bard, RHP Bard is the brother of Daniel Bard, the former excellent Red Sox reliever who ran into arm trouble and was never the same. Luckily for Luke, he ran into that injury trouble in the minor leagues, getting himself back in 2015 as a reliever to become one of the most dominant relievers in the minor leagues. However, he’s among a whole host of similar relievers that the Twins have, so it could be difficult to distinguish with him versus other power-throwing righties.
Nick Burdi, RHP If it weren’t for injuries, Burdi would already be in the major leagues. He’s had the stuff to be ready for the next level for a year or two, but his injury issues have meant that he simply hasn’t put in the innings to really feel comfortable making that jump yet. He will likely miss most of 2018, so he’s going to be a tough selection if anyone does pick him, which could lead the Twins to leave him unprotected, but there has been a trend in recent years to select injured arms like Burdi and hold onto them through a DL season to hopefully catch an elite arm.
Mason Melotakis, LHP If you would have asked me in February, Melotakis would have been in the first group. After some issues with velocity in the early part of the season, Melotakis was removed from the 40-man in the early part of the season. He’s recovered his velocity and looks like the guy the Twins were excited about coming into 2017, but at the same time, a number of other lefty relievers have passed him up or caught him at this point, so he could be left available. He’s also the type of pitcher that is selected often, so if he isn’t protected, don’t be surprised if he’s gone.
Emmanuel Morel, IF For many, Morel would be in the next group down simply because he’s not played full season ball yet at this point. However, the word on Morel was so strong this season from all who saw him that it would be tough to not protect him. That said, with no full-season ball under his belt, he’s an unlikely selection, so the Twins could leave him unprotected and take the chance.
Jake Reed, RHP Reed is another guy who I would have guaranteed in February would be protected, however, yet another season of struggles to stay on the field, Reed is a question mark. Reed could be a guy whose big fastball and raw stuff gets him drafted, especially with experience at the upper levels of the minor leagues. The Twins have seen a number of relievers step up, including John Curtiss, who passed Reed by in 2017, so he could end up exposed due to a numbers game.
Kohl Stewart, RHP The former #4 overall selection has progressed through the system, but many would say that he’s not progressed as a pitcher in that time. Stewart really hasn’t had to “learn to pitch” to get to the upper minors thanks to elite raw stuff, but he’s notably put up a low strikeout rate for a guy who can pump in an upper-90s fastball. The Twins may protect him simply because of the pedigree, but Stewart could be on a “make or break” year in 2018, where he ends up moving to the bullpen if he can’t show progress as a starter.
Most likely getting exposed to Rule 5
Jhonathan Alvarez, C – Has just one game above the GCL level, unlikely to be protected. D.J. Baxendale, RHP – Found a home as a swing man in AA/AAA in 2017, but borderline stuff will likely leave him unprotected. Cameron Booser, RHP – Only threw 3 games in 2017 due to second positive test for drug of abuse. Sam Clay, LHP – Could be a guy who gets drafted, even with a rough first introduction to AA. Moved to bullpen in 2017 and was one of the most elite performers in the Twins system. Edgar Corcino, OF – Signed out of indy ball in 2015, Corcino has lept up the Twins system, showing well in AA in 2017. Would be a surprising pick, so likely won’t be protected, but has worked hard to get to where he could be considered. Andro Cutura, RHP – Cutura has missed most of the last two seasons on the DL, so it’s unlikely he’ll be selected or protected. Eduardo Del Rosario, RHP – Del Rosario was off to an impressive start to the season before getting promoted to Fort Myers at the end of July, when he seemed to go into a funk. Hasn’t been above A ball, so unlikely that he will be selected or need to be protected. Ryan Eades, RHP – Eades is a perfect example of a guy that gets selected in Rule 5, and the type of guy the Twins won’t likely mind losing. Tanner English, OF – Uber-talented athlete, but he can’t get his contact issues figured out right now, so he’s an unlikely Rule 5 target at the MLB level, though he could be a minor league level pick.
Edgar Herrera, OF – Finally broke out of the DSL after three seasons there, but struggled in GCL in 2017. Zack Jones, RHP – Was selected in the 2015 Rule 5 by Milwaukee but returned to the Twins. He’s had health issues ever since. Big arm when healthy. Randy LeBlanc, RHP – Senior sign pick spent over half the year at AA. Works with a sub-par stuff, but pitches well. Could be a 5th starter/swing man for the right club, but Twins would likely let him go. Jose Martinez, RHP – Lots of promise, but hasn’t made it out of rookie ball. Just moved to bullpen in 2017. Nelson Molina, IF – Possible utility type could be a bench pick, but struggled in 2017 with the bat, so likely will go undrafted. Robert Molina, C – Hasn’t gotten out of rookie ball yet, playing the last two seasons at Elizabethton. Ariel Montesino, IF – Solid OBP utility infielder played across three levels in 2017, but hasn’t been out of A ball at this point. Alex Muren, RHP – Returned after surgery for only roughly a half season in 2017, but threw very well. Max Murphy, OF – Of anyone that likely won’t be protected, Murphy may be the guy who fits the likely profile to be picked best. He’s an elite defender with enough bat skill to work off the bench as a 4th/5th outfielder. Brian Navarreto, C – A highly-regarded power bat coming out of high school, Navarreto has developed defensively well, but his bat has lagged behind. Callan Pearce, RHP – Has spent three seasons in the GCL, but missed all of 2017 on the disabled list. Johan Quezada, RHP – Fun to watch pitch with tremendous size and strength behind his throws. Missed all of 2017 after shoulder surgery.
Williams Ramirez, RHP – Solid reliever for Fort Myers in 2017, but hasn’t thrown above A-ball, so an unlikely target. Rainis Silva, C – Struggled in 2016 in first full-season ball, but returned to Elizabethton in 2017 and raked. Not sure there’s more than an org catcher there, but still just 21 when spring training opens. Keaton Steele, RHP – Transitioned to the bullpen in 2017 with mixed results. Likely to get to continue the transition with the Twins in 2018. Todd Van Steensel, RHP – Aussie had a big year for Chattanooga. Fringy stuff, but really has come a long way in using it out of the bullpen. Michael Theofanopoulos, LHP – Hasn’t cleared out of A-ball yet, but personally I want to keep him in the org to eventually hear big league announcers give that last name a try. Ryan Walker, IF – Spent most of the year with Chattanooga. Showing to be an org player, likely not of interest in the draft to anyone. T.J. White, 3B – Health struggles shortened his season, but hit the ball well at Chattanooga and could be a late-bloomer type with power.
