The Minnesota Twins will have a number of players who are eligible for arbitration this offseason. Could any of them end up non-tendered?
When the offseason comes, the Minnesota Twins will have some decisions to make on a number of players when arbitration deadline comes in early December.
Certainly the most intriguing arbitration case on the team will be that of Kyle Gibson. If you would have asked in April-July whether Gibson would be tendered a contract for 2018, the answer would have been a resounding negative response. On August 1st, Gibson checked in with a 6.08 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over 18 starts and 94 2/3 innings, with a 45/62 BB/K ratio, allowing 16 home runs.
Then Gibson went on a solid 2-month run in August and September as the Twins surged into a playoff position. He made 11 starts, throwing 63 1/3 innings, with a 3.55 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, posting a 15/59 BB/K ratio and allowing just 8 home runs.
Gibson is likely going to cost in the range of $4-6M at least in arbitration, and finding a guy who can do what Gibson did the last two months of the season at that salary is near impossible. However, the first four months of the season are not negated by the final two.
Escobar was an incredibly valuable piece for the Minnesota Twins in 2017. Able to handle shortstop in a pinch, third base very well, and handle every position other than first base in his major league career, including even catching an inning this season for the Twins.
When Escobar was acquired for Francisco Liriano, many Minnesota Twins fans felt like the Twins were “cheated” by getting a utility type rather than more of a high-ceiling prospect for Liriano’s volatile-yet-elite left arm. However, Escobar has turned into an important part of the Twins roster the last 5 seasons, topping 350 at bats in each of the last four seasons and posting a 100 OPS+ or better in three of those four seasons.
Escobar also provided one other major thing for the Twins in 2017 – Miguel Sano insurance. With the possibility that Sano may need surgery on his troublesome shin, having someone who can play quality defense at the hot corner the way Escobar can would be incredibly valuable.
In 2017, Escobar hit .254/.309/.449 with 21 home runs, driving in 73 runs. Like it or not, his .301 career OBP is not likely to come into play in the arbitration process as much as things like those 21 HR and 73 RBI will come into play, and that can be a good argument for Escobar’s agents.
Escobar has made $2.15M and $2.6M in the last two seasons, but it would not surprise to see him get to $4M at least this offseason. Frankly, his value to the team makes him a player that is too valuable to let walk away, unless somehow he is going to be over $7M.
In spite of posting his best WHIP of his career, Pressly by far had his worst season in ERA by nearly a full run. Pressly also allowed his most home runs by a long ways as well.
Pressly does have legit quality relief stuff out of the bullpen, with quality velocity (averaged 95.8 MPH on his fastball in 2017) and a slider/curveball combination of breaking pitches that are both positive value pitches via Fangraphs.
Pressly’s curve is the breaker that he uses most, just a hair more than a quarter of the the pitches he throws. It’s a spiked curve that has a strong vertical break. His slider comes in roughly 6 MPH faster with a shorter, more sharp break at its best. The two pitches can blend into one another.
Pressly has reduced his slider usage every year of his big league career, increasing his fastball usage and even adding wrinkles, going to a two-seamer that came in roughly a mile per hour slower than his four-seam (96.1 to 95.0) on average, and he even added in a cutter as an extra wrinkle.
Pressly’s loose arm and solid size (6’3″, 210 pounds) allows for him to project to continue success with his pitches. At the right price, he would be worth the investment. He earned $1.175M last season, so he’ll likely earn at least $1.5M in his first season in arbitration. The Twins will have to consider his cost and the other pieces from the minor leagues and outside the team that they choose to bring in for the bullpen and whether his cost will be worth the cost. Pressly would likely be a quality trade candidate if the Twins were not going to offer him a contract as he could be valued more highly around the league than in Minnesota.
Going into his age 35 season and 10th season in the majors, Gimenez will finally have his first season in arbitration. Having spent pieces of seasons along the way, Gimenez spent his first season with Minnesota in 2017, and he was a quality performer.
Gimenez actually threw 5 innings for the Twins in relief in 2017 on top of playing catcher, first base, left field, and third base. His hitting wasn’t incredible, but he showed the ability to take a walk along with power as he hit .220/.350/.382 with 7 home runs in 225 plate appearances over 77 games.
Gimenez earned just shy of a million dollars in 2017. In his first season in arbitration, he’d likely earn $1.5M or so. The question will be whether or not the Twins want to play with young catcher Mitch Garver along with starter Jason Castro from this season as a pair at the position with Garver’s quality bat and Castro’s quality glove would make a good pairing. If Gimenez wanted to return on a minor league deal with a major league incentive, he could have a place, but he may not have a spot at $1.5M or more.
Most well known on the internet for his physical features than for his baseball abilities, Recker was added to the deal with Jaime Garcia with the Atlanta Braves in order to help offset money. Recker cost the Twins roughly $400K this season to the Twins as he sat in AAA due to his major league deal. However, without another option for 2018, he’ll need to either make the major league club or be signed to a minor league deal in order to continue with the Twins.
In arbitration this winter, he’ll likely make ~$1M, but that would be out of line for his value as he’s never been worth playing even 200 plate appearances in a season. He’ll most likely be non-tendered or traded.
Bounced through DFA limbo in the winter, Adrianza ended up with the Twins after starting the offseason with the Giants and also spending roughly a week as “property” of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Adrianza had spent parts of three seasons with the Giants, never playing more than 53 games or garnering more than 134 plate appearances in a season with the Giants before he was let go. Due to a lack of options, he had to pass through waivers if he was sent to the minors, and he spent the season with the major league team after opening the year on the disabled list.
In the end, Adrianza played excellent utility defense for a low cost, though he did not exactly do anything offensively that stood out, hitting .265/.324/.383 with 9 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs, and 8 stolen bases over 186 plate appearances. What made his season most valuable off the bench was his quality plate discipline, putting up a 16/25 BB/K ratio.
While Adrianza is not an elite defender at any one position or an elite hitter off the bench, his ability to be a quality backup infielder for a cheap price could make him worth bringing back. After earning $600K in 2017, Adrianza would likely be able to be signed for $750K-$1M to hold down the end of the bench.
When the Twins made the move after the 2012 season to move players to create room in their outfield, they moved speedster Ben Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies for May and Vance Worley. Worley crashed and burned with the Twins, leaving after 2013, when he put up a 7.21 ERA over 10 starts, but May has developed in the Twins system around injuries and struggles to find his long term role.
May was moved to the bullpen in 2016, but he was attempting to make the starting rotation in 2017 spring training when he suffered a torn UCL in March and underwent Tommy John surgery. He began throwing again in early August, and hopes are that he will be able to return this next spring and likely return to the major leagues in the first couple of months of the 2018 season.
Because he’s been injured frequently, May will come up for arbitration before he’s really defined his future role as a major leaguer. Due to the stress on his arm, it’s quite likely the Twins will have May work as a reliever when he returns.
When May moved into the bullpen, he saw his fastball tick up a full MPH on average to 93.9. His slider and curve both played up in effectiveness and movement out of the bullpen, even though the breaking stuff didn’t add any velocity.
As he’s returning from a season making just $550K, he’ll likely only make $600K-$750k this season, so resigning him is not the issue, but getting him healthy will be the goal for 2018.
A 30th round selection by the Twins in 2008, Tonkin has been up the last four years for some extended time with the Twins in the bullpen, but his performance has been less than stellar the last two seasons, combining for a 5.05 ERA and 1.49 WHIP at the major league level in 92 2/3 innings over 81 games.
He attempted to use a cutter more this season, but he continued to have a negative pitch value with his fastball, slider, and now also with his cutter. He could be a guy that the Twins negotiate with ahead of time on a minor league deal before the contract tender deadline. Otherwise, even though he’d likely cost little, he’d likely be a non-tender candidate.
Probably the biggest positive development in the lineup this season was Grossman. While he hit just .246 and slugged only .380, he had a .361 on base percentage, something that was sorely needed this season in the Twins lineup with a number of hitters that had excellent ability to drive the ball, but did not always take a walk.
Grossman took the majority of the at bats at DH for the Twins in 2017, and he did hit 9 home runs and 22 doubles over 456 plate appearances. Grossman did work through a host of injuries this season, and he struggled when he was coming back from injury, which dinged his season long numbers.
One positive that Grossman brings for the Twins lineup is that he is a switch-hitter, which allows him to handle pitchers from either side of the plate, with an on base over .350 from both sides of the plate. Interestingly, Grossman was one of the biggest weapons for the Twins on the road, with an OPS 170 points higher on the road and an OBP of .400.
Grossman was hitting better in the first half before injury issues plagued him throughout the second half, and you can see it in his numbers, as he his OPS was 65 points higher in the second half.
With a salary just over $550K this season, Grossman will likely not make a huge jump in salary, but it will be up to the Twins to see how they want to fill out the lineup. If Miguel Sano is unable to go frequently at 3B and needs to be a half-time DH, then perhaps a bench spot is better spent elsewhere. The emergence of Zack Granite and his exceptional patience, defense, and speed also give the Twins the ideal 4th outfielder on the roster. I would wager if he’s making less than $1M, he could be back with the Twins, however, though he could also be a prime trade option.
