Minnesota Twins: Should he Stay or Should he Go? The Twins, Mauer, and 2019.

The Minnesota Twins have a big decision coming up surrounding franchise cornerstone and hometown hero Joe Mauer. Here are some of the possibilities.

The Minnesota Twins‘ first basemen Joe Mauer has had a successful, yet polarizing pro career. He is a hometown guy who was drafted by his hometown team. He was made the #1 overall pick in a draft that held promising arm Mark Prior, a pick that was certainly questioned at the time, but now that both their careers have played out, Mauer has proven to be the better pick.

In 2004 at the age of 21, Mauer debuted as the Twins’ catcher. He immediately was able to show off his best skill, his bat. In 33 games that season he batted .308. Through those early years, Mauer struggled with some injuries but was proving with his bat and command behind the plate that he belonged as a major league catcher. Twins fans were excited about watching one of their own develop into a big league star.

As a catcher, Mauer was able to obtain some of the most sought after awards in baseball. He appeared in 6 All-Star games, won 5 Silver Slugger awards, 3 Batting Titles, 3 Gold Gloves, and was the AL MVP in 2009. Those accolades led to Mauer and the Twins agreeing to a contract that currently pays him 23 million dollars a year.

That contract is what has made Mauer one of the most polarizing players in Minnesota and pro sports. It feels like the next day Mauer suffered a concussion leading to the move from catcher where he was a huge value at 23 million dollars to first base where he felt like a liability and/or overpaid at that price tag.

In 2017, Mauer is the second-highest paid first basemen in baseball behind Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera. He has performed well this season as he has continued his form as an on base machine. He currently ranks 5th in the American League with an OBP of .377, only behind Eric Hosmer for first basemen. He has also turned in a defensive resume to warrant consideration for his 4th gold glove and first as a first baseman.

Many fans still are not happy because Mauer is a first baseman who doesn’t hit for power. Thankfully for that segment of fans, the current contract expires at the end of the 2018 season. As Mauer has succeeded this season, albeit differently than many of his counterparts at his position, is it possible to consider bringing him back on another contract? At how much? If the Twins decide it is time to let Mauer leave the Twins, who might replace him? Let us explore some of the possibilities.

Reasons to Bring Mauer back in 2019

As was alluded to earlier, Mauer has become one of the top defenders at his position in 2017. This really should come as no surprise as Mauer has always been considered a supreme athlete and was highly sought after as a high school athlete. We should expect success for Mauer as he moved from a highly difficult defensive position to one considered less difficult.

Currently, Mauer is second among first basemen in UZR and UZR/150. He sits just behind Brandon Belt in those categories and his 5.9 UZR puts him 21st overall among position players. Stats sometimes can only tell us part of the story, but Mauer has been passing the eye test in many ways as well. He has made plenty of diving stops and scooped most throws that have come his way.

In addition to his defense, Mauer is still an on base machine. Even in the past years when he was quickly labelled as a drain on the lineup, he continued to get on base at a good rate. In OBP, Mauer ranks 22nd overall in the majors this season. While most would like first base to provide power to a lineup, having a guy who gets on base well is still a good skill to keep around.

Finally, even though this should be far from the driving reason to keep Mauer around, he is still one of “us”. There is potential for a public relations nightmare if the Twins don’t make a valid attempt to resign Mauer after 2018.

Reasons to let Mauer walk

While we just outlined the value that Mauer’s bat brings to the Twins lineup, he still lacks the power to be well-rounded in the position that he plays. The baseball world was teased with the idea of “Mauer Power” during his 2009 MVP season, but that really has been about it for home run power in his career. Amongst qualified MLB first basemen this season, Mauer ranks 29th in slugging.

While Mauer is very good about getting on base, which has value, his wOBA tells a different story. wOBA attempts to combine several hitting statistics in order to get a better all around idea how a hitter is performing. In Mauer’s case, it gives us an idea how to interpret his very good on base abilities and his hard to find power. Mauer finds himself ranked 19th this season in wOBA in comparison to other first basemen.

Another concern is that Mauer may be blocking players that could be taking over at first base. Those players will be outlined later. There is a strong enough possibility that one of those players may develop enough to push an aging Mauer out of the picture.

Lastly, Mauer will still want and need to be paid. It will not be nearly as big of a contract as this last time around. Is he worth any of those 23 million dollars that will be coming off the books as his contract expires? The Twins may find themselves better off spending their money elsewhere than Mauer.

Contract Talk

As mentioned earlier, Mauer currently sits as the 2nd highest paid first basemen in the majors. Just for comparison, Paul Goldschmidt who many would consider a better first baseman currently is 11th among major league first basemen at $8,850,000.

It always has seemed in a way unfair to judge Mauer by this contract since he was signed on it to be a plus at an entirely different position. Unfortunately, that is the world we live in and fans have 23 million reasons to judge Mauer each year. Fairly or not, it is what happens.

Looking at FanGraphs formula that uses WAR to calculate salary, Mauer is currently valued at 13.4 million dollars. That places him between Ryan Zimmerman (#8) and Eric Hosmer (#9) on this year’s salary rankings. This formula is just that a formula. It isn’t perfect but it does give us a starting point in determining Mauer’s value on the field.

In pure speculation that might be where the conversation starts for Mauer after the 2018 season. It may go a little higher depending on how the first base market is shaped at that time. Maybe Mauer will just want to stay in Minnesota and play any role he can to bring a World Series title to the state again. Recently, similar first basemen to Mauer on the free agent market have been earning $4-5M per season without Mauer’s marketability. The question might be, is paying Mauer 13-14 million dollars per year a good investment for the 2019 Twins, do they hold the line at $5-6 million, or do they want to replace him entirely on the roster?

Possible Outside Replacements

With Mauer’s 23 million coming off the books, there is a real possibility the Twins could sign someone to a decent sized contract. Now clearly they will need to look at signing some of their own guys to long term contracts, but let’s see who may be available to sign.

Carlos Santana

I have to give credit to Brandon Warne as the first on this bandwagon, but it makes sense. Granted the Twins will likely need to move on him this next offseason. His bat would fit well into the Twins lineup. Santana would add the power to first base position fans have so longed for while likely working as designated hitter in the 2018 season.

Jose Bautista

Jose Bautista has crushed the Twins it seems whenever the Bluejays are sitting in the other dugout. It isn’t certain he will be available for the Twins to sign as he has some option years coming up in his contract. His age may also be a concern as he will be 38 turning 39 if available before the 2019 season. If the Twins are looking for power to replace Mauer, moving Bautista to first base has that potential.

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Manny Machado

This would be an absolute splash. It would require that Miguel Sano move to first base but if the Twins feel they have the money as Mauer’s contract goes off the books it would be a big addition to the lineup. Not to mention Machado would give an upgrade to the left side of the infield as he is a better defender than Sano, in discussion with Nolan Arenado as the best defensive 3B in the entire league. This signing may not be realistic but Machado is set to be available and has the ability to upgrade several areas of the team as his range at third would work well next to a future Nick Gordon/Jorge Polanco shortstop as well.

Next: Minnesota Twins Southern League Awards

Twins fans, this is your home town guy, and now it is your turn. What would you do with Mauer? Would you pay him and how much? Are there other Twins’ minor league players who should get a chance? Another Free Agent you would like to see with the Twins?