BOSTON, MA - June 4: The Minnesota Twins logo is seen during the fifth inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 4, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA – June 4: The Minnesota Twins logo is seen during the fifth inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 4, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Winslow Townson/Getty Images) /
An offseason free agent target list for the Minnesota Twins
Even as the Minnesota Twins fight back into the playoff race and into a possible wild card berth, there should be an eye to the offseason.
This offseason will be the first that the new Minnesota Twins front office will have to shape the organization into the mold of the team that they want to have going forward. Already moves have been made to let go of some of the scouting department and to make changes in the analytics department. It is incredibly likely that some major personnel changes will occur this offseason after having a year to get the lay of the land, up to, and very possibly including, the manager, Paul Molitor.
What will be interesting to watch is the player turnover. The new front office has taken a very impressive effort to rebuild the farm system, taking a minor league system that had graduated a number of players to the major league club over the previous 2-3 seasons and infused a ton of high-end talent through trades and a well-crafted draft this past June.
This offseason will be the first that the new front office has had after spending a year truly getting to know the depth of the organization’s players and knowing who they want to keep and who they want to move on from. The free agent market this winter should be a first place to plunge in.
In a post in July, we mentioned the 2018 Twins following the blueprint laid out by the 2017 Rockies in making signings on the free agent market. Let’s explore what that could look like this offseason, starting with the Twins eligible free agents and arbitration players:
Next: Twins decisions
Minnesota Twins free agent and arbitration decisions
Free Agents First, the easy ones – Hector Santiago, Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, and Matt Belisle are unrestricted free agents, able to sign wherever they’d please. The Twins could offer a qualifying offer on them, but with the cost of the qualifying offer going up to $18.1M this season, the Twins are unlikely to offer on any of these three.
Glen Perkins has an option for 2018. That could be very interesting, as it is not terribly expensive, at $6.5M, but the buyout is extremely cheap at $700K, so the Twins could buy out the option and even re-sign Perkins for less than the $6.5M number.
Arbitration Eligible Here are were some interesting decisions will lie. While not an expert, I’ll provide a general idea of a salary range for each arbitration eligible player as well:
I could absolutely see the Twins not offering a contract to any of their arbitration-eligible players, or choosing to offer to one of Escobar or Adrianza, but not both. However, losing those arms and bench pieces would create a need for the Twins roster.
Let’s take a look at how they could fill that:
Next: Starting Pitcher Targets
Starting pitcher targets
The Rockies made their “big splash” in free agency with their lineup, having an abundance of young arms ready to make an impact at the major league level, so they signed Ian Desmond. The Twins lineup is fairly set, but a starting pitcher that would work at the front of the rotation would be ideal. This year’s top free agent candidate that would fit would be Yu Darvish, but he could be financially out of the Minnesota Twins’ reach.
Much like Darvish returning to health in 2017, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn were both returning to the mound after being off the mound due to injury, and both are excellent options as a guy who worked as a #2/3 starter. Cobb has posted a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 23 starts in 2017. At just 29, he could be signed for 3-4 years and not get too far beyond his peak either. Lynn has bounced back after Tommy John surgery this season, posting a 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 24 starts. Just 30 years old, Lynn would also be an excellent target for 3-4 years as a second-tier option below Darvish (and Jake Arrieta, who doesn’t seem a good fit at all for the Twins).
The Twins could choose to go with Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios at the top of their rotation and bring in one guy to eat some innings in the middle of the rotation while filling the back with guys from their own system. Pitchers like Tyler Chatwood, Jaime Garcia, and Trevor Cahill could be excellent short-term contracts that would work in the middle of the rotation to provide league-average innings. Chatwood is likely the most desirable at 27 years old, though his numbers are certainly not great this season, but just like in previous seasons, he’s been considerably better on the road, posting a 3.78 ERA and 1.24 WHIP away from Coors Field. The Twins did have a chance to get to know Garcia for a couple of weeks this July as a mid-rotation piece from the left side. Cahill missed some time due to injury this year, but he had an excellent half season with the Padres in the rotation, and he threw quite well for the Cubs out of the bullpen in 2016, so he could be a target in both capacities.
One target that would be ideal for the Twins plan is Michael Pineda. Pineda will miss 2018 with Tommy John surgery, and he could likely be had for a contract that was heavily loaded into the 2019 and 2020 seasons on a three-year pact. Pineda has struggled in Yankee Stadium with a heavy amount of his home runs allowed being allowed in his home park since he was a full-time starter (oddly, until this season). Pineda could possibly be signed for less than other options and in 2019/2020 could turn out to be an even better pitcher for a lower cost with the right deal.
Next: Bench Targets
Bench targets
The Twins will need to replace Gimenez if he is let go. While Alex Avila could end up costly based on his year in 2017, he’s nearly the only free agent available that would be worth the effort this offseason. What may behoove the Twins is to bring up top catching prospect Mitch Garver and pair him with Jason Castro in a mentor role rather than investing in a weak catching crop.
The Twins could pursue someone like Danny Espinosa and allow both Escobar and Adrianza to go. He’s not a great hitter, but he’s an elite defender that would be excellent behind Brian Dozier and Jorge Polanco (eventually Nick Gordon). However, his defense may not be enough to justify the contract he’ll likely require after earning over $5M in 2017. Other bench pieces to consider would be Adam Rosales, who has proven to be quite valuable in a backup role over the last few seasons and can handle all infield positions. The Twins could have a reunion with Danny Valencia to handle corner infield positions and provide a solid bat off the bench as well, depending on what his cost would be.
The question is whether the Minnesota Twins front office believes that Jorge Polanco is the guy to hold down shortstop for 2018, and if he is not, whether they believe Nick Gordon will be to ready in the 2018 season. If the answer to both is negative, perhaps a pursuit of someone like Alcides Escobar or Eduardo Nunez would make sense, if they could be signed to a 2-year deal (or preferably a 1-year deal with options) at a reasonable rate.
Next: Bullpen Targets
Bullpen targets
The Minnesota Twins will certainly be targeting bullpen options, but much like the Rockies in my example, going big after the top-line guy is probably not the way to do it, but getting guys with elite stuff and putting them in roles to succeed is the way to go.
That would seemingly take them out of the running to get Wade Davis, who will be the top closer on the market. Brandon Kintzler likely will have the second-most closing experience, though he doesn’t exactly have closing “stuff”. Addison Reed worked much of the year as the Mets’ closer this year, and he’s had an elite run the past two years, which will also likely price him beyond the Twins’ market.
Two guys that could be interesting would be Seung-hwan Oh, who lost his closer job with the Cardinals, but has really been stung by BABIP this year as his control has been fine, but his command has not been as sharp, and his stuff lives on movement and location, and that movement missing locations will allow pitches to get hit hard. The other guy will be Tony Watson, who closed for Pittsburgh after Mark Melancon was dealt in 2016 until he was removed from the job in 2017. He then went on a run that resembled his elite performance of 2013-2015. Whether a team values him as an elite lefty setup man or as a possible closer will determine his market.
Getting other relief arms is best to pursue guys in two markets for the Twins – the first market is former elite relievers who are still fairly young and flash their once-elite “stuff”, and the second is older relievers who have been great and shown to be consistently quality arms.
The first group in this winter’s market would be highlighted by Neftali Feliz and Steve Cishek. Both are hard throwers with history closing. Cishek has struggled with his location at times, but he’s thrown very well when healthy this season. Feliz has struggled more with health than ineffectiveness over his career, but this season he is struggling with generating swing and miss on his pitches, especially his previously dominant fastball, in spite of the average velocity being similar.
The collection of older, reliable arms that could be good are rich this offseason. Names like Luke Gregerson, David Hernandez, Pat Neshek, Drew Storen, Anthony Swarzak, Zach Duke, Jake McGee, Oliver Perez, Fernando Abad, and Joe Smith would all be wise targets, and with depth in that type of class, the Twins could end up getting even multiple of these types of guys to help lead their bullpen that could then be filled with a host of elite arms that are in the AA and AAA bullpens.
Finally, one target to look at for the Twins that could be an interesting market to review would be former starters that may work better in the bullpen. Former teammates Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner would be two that could possibly work in this way, though the cost on either could be prohibitive as Cashner is earning $10M this year on a one-year deal and Ross is making $6M on a one-year deal himself.
How does all of this sound? Any other ideas you’d throw into the mix? Comment below!!
