Midseason Review of Minnesota Twins Preseason Top 10 Prospects
The author put up a Minnesota Twins Top 10 list this winter. How is it looking this year?
The opinions on the Minnesota Twins farm system this offseason in top 10/20/30 lists was incredibly diverse. As a writer for FanSided’s Call To The Pen blog, I put up a top 10 for every team this winter based on my own views and talking with scouts around the game. I’m going go through and see where, at the midseason point of the season, that list holds up and where there are holes.
As part of looking into the offseason rankings this year for the Minnesota Twins system, I looked at 10 different rankings (including my Call To The Pen rankings). Let’s open with a look at how those rankings broke down:
Industry Review
The ten lists that I looked at for this review were my own with Call To The Pen, MLB Pipeline’s, John Sickels’ list at Minor League Ball, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, Fangraphs, ESPN’s Keith Law, 2080 Ball, Prospect 361, and then the writers consensus rankings from Twins Daily.
Six players made all 10 lists – Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Alex Kirilloff, Fernando Romero, Tyler Jay, and Adalberto Mejia. Kohl Stewart made 8 of the lists, Travis Blankenhorn made 7, and Wander Javier made 5.
The top 5 – Gordon, Gonsalves, Kirilloff, Romero, and Jay – were near-consensus in some order as the first five in every list. Jay was the one guy who upset that the most, not appearing in the top 5 in three of the four lists that broke from that grouping in the top 5. Part of that was when the list was released as well. I’m almost certain that Baseball America would have Jay out of the top 5, for instance, once the news of moving him full-time to the bullpen was announced in the offseason, which some of these lists had the benefit of knowing. All but one list had Gordon leading off the list as well, with Twins Daily being the one hold out.
I aggregated the lists and averaged the ranking for the lists that players appeared on to find the “most common” order. After a clear #1 in Gordon, the next three were bunched pretty close, with the order going Stephen Gonsalves, Alex Kirilloff, and Fernando Romero.
Kohl Stewart ranked fairly well on those lists he was on, though he missed two of the lists. Then there was another bunch like the bunch from 2-4. From 7-9, three players were bunched tight in their average performance on lists – Mejia, Javier, and Lewis Thorpe, even though Thorpe only appeared on two lists.
Now that we know how other lists were looking, let’s take a look at the one that I put out and see how things have gone in 2017
Honorable Mention: Ben Rortvedt, C, Cedar Rapids
With each of my top 10 lists, I featured a “name to know” after the top 10, and for the Twins, my choice was Rortvedt. He was known well, appearing on three of the top 10 lists that I looked at, so I wasn’t crazy in that pick.
My comments on Rortvedt highlighted his offensive potential and raw defensive skills that were present at his drafting. Rortvedt was the most highly-regarded high school catcher in the 2016 class, though he ended up the second high school catcher drafted, as some were worried that he was going to have to move off the position to allow his bat to play.
Rortvedt has a compact, 5’10”, 200-ish pound build that works well in size behind the plate. His big raw power has certainly shown itself in batting practice this year with the Kernels, but his offensive production has not shown up in game, with a .221/.293/.303 line. The thing I have been pleased to see is that even with a big swing, Rortvedt has kept his strikeout rate under 20% on the season.
I am not sure that Rortvedt has moved up in rankings enough to be a certain top 10 guy in the system. The defense is still plenty raw, as evidenced by his 11 passed balls on the year so far, but there is plenty of promise here.
#10: Wander Javier, SS, Elizabethton
Javier actually broke the Minnesota Twins organization record for a bonus paid to an international amateur originally set by Miguel Sano’s $3.15M signing bonus when the Twins gave him $4M in July of 2015.
Javier has the physical frame to be a guy who can stick up the middle yet also provide offensive production that is rarely seen up the middle. He’s put on some weight coming into this year in a good way, and his frame could probably add a bit more to it, currently listed at 6’1″ and 165 pounds, but likely more like 175-185 with a solid frame that could probably handle near 200 pounds without losing much in the range of foot speed.
Javier opened the season jumping over the Gulf Coast League straight to the Appalachian League with Elizabethton. He’s not shown any issues as one of the younger players in the league usually filled with recent college draftees, hitting .303/.378/.424 with 4 doubles and 2 stolen bases in his first 10 games.
Javier will very likely be a consensus top 10 guy in the system after the year, and there’s a very good chance that he ends up working his way prominently into the top 5 for many people.
#9: Felix Jorge, RHP, Rochester
Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic in the 2010 international free agent class, Jorge has the sort of raw stuff that has always led to his being highly regarded in the scouting community, however, he’s seemed to struggle to put up strikeouts on the scoreboard in spite of high-movement stuff and excellent control.
After moving one step at a time over his career, Jorge really pushed himself forward in the prospect view when he opened the 2016 season with a 1.55 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over his first 14 starts for high-A Fort Myers before a promotion to AA Chattanooga.
Jorge opened the year with Chattanooga this season and has shown to be a solid inning-eating starter at the level. He’s still got work to do to be successful at the major league level, as has been seen in his two major league starts, and part of that is the change to major league hitters who are quite used to seeing a 90-ish MPH fastball with excellent movement and laying off it to require other pitches to work, and Jorge struggled to spot his slider and change, especially on Friday night.
#8: Adalberto Mejia, LHP, Minnesota
The Minnesota Twins capitalized on the hot first half of Eduardo Nunez in 2016 to trade him to the San Francisco Giants for Mejia, knowing he could move quickly. Mejia was really finished with his minor league development when he was acquired, having already worked his way to the cusp of the Giants’ rotation.
Mejia doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but from the left side, he has a low-90s sinking fastball, plus change, and also works with a curve and slider that are average to above-average pitches, giving him a four-pitch mix that allows him to be effective for at least two trips through a lineup each time out, and even more on the days when his breaking ball(s) is really working well.
Mejia opened the season in the Twins rotation and was sent to Rochester when there was no need for a 5th starter for a couple weeks, but he’s primarily been in the Twins rotation this season, throwing 58 1/3 innings, with a 4.32 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 29/48 BB/K ratio. While those numbers are not elite starter numbers, there is room for growth there for a guy to be an excellent inning eater that works in the #4 spot of a rotation and saves the bullpen.
Mejia has thrown enough to disqualify himself from prospect lists going forward and should be a certain portion of the rotation going forward.
#7: Lewin Diaz, 1B, Cedar Rapids
Diaz only appeared on 4 of the 10 lists I looked at, and only John Sickels at Minor League Ball had Diaz ranked outside of #10 as I did, ranking him #6 in the Twins system. Perhaps we talked with the same scout who saw him in Elizabethton, but considering the guy I talked with was a scout with the Atlanta Braves, that’s unlikely.
Diaz has a pretty left-handed power swing that is reminiscent of former Twin David Ortiz. While the two have little in common physically, the swing is certainly notable. Yes, they’re roughly the same height, but Diaz’s roughly 210-220 pounds on his frame are lean and cut, certainly not bearing a resemblance to the future Hall of Famer.
I mentioned that Diaz does possess athleticism and the plus arm to profile in a corner outfield spot, but at his size, he’s likely to stay at first base just due to future physical growth to come. After showing excellent contact skills and good zone judgement in the Appy League in 2016, Diaz has seen his walk rate dip below 5%, however, he has also kept his strikeout rate under 15% on the season.
Yet, in spite of seemingly swinging at near everything coming to the plate, Diaz is putting up a .286/.320/.468 line with 24 doubles and 10 home runs in 79 games. He is very possibly the most polished power hitting prospect in the system currently, and it would not surprise if he was the guy who took over in Minnesota when Joe Mauer’s contract is up after the 2018 season.
#4: Fernando Romero, RHP, Chattanooga
From the get-go, I mentioned that this could be one that looked low, stating “In a year, we all may look foolish for having Romero so low after he really took a monster step forward as a pitcher in 2016.”
The Twins had eased Romero back from Tommy John surgery, taking their time and giving him extra rest between outings, and he responded by being the most dominant pitcher in the system when he was on the mound.
Twins Daily thought highly enough of Romero to rank him #1 overall (as the lone place not to rank Nick Gordon #1 in the system), and very feasibly the one guy in the upper levels of the minors with front line starter stuff. Paired with fellow top prospect Gonsalves in Chattanooga this season, Romero hasn’t been quite as ridiculous as last season, but he’s continued success, with a 2.94 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a 33/86 BB/K ratio over 85 2/3 innings.
Romero’s two best pitches are his fastball and his change up, so some polish on his breaking pitch would help for certain, but he seems to get weak contact with that pitch and generate strikeouts with his fastball and change.
Romero could very well see AAA soon and possibly be in line for a late-season call up if the Twins are out of the race, but he’ll almost certainly be one of the top 2 prospects in the system for most rankers this coming offseason.
#3: Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Chattanooga
Many fans struggled with the selection of Gonsalves in the 4th round in 2013 out of high school in San Diego. He was certainly well-built, but he was near maxed out physically without having taken the steps forward many thought he would with velocity.
Gonsalves has simply shown a feel for pitching from the time he entered the Twins system that has been advanced beyond his years. He works around 90 MPH with excellent movement and control, though he can reach back for mid-90s when needed. His change is a plus pitch and can flash double-plus, with excellent sinking action.
Gonsalves works with a curve that rates as an average to above-average pitch, flashing better on its best days, and he’s worked with a fourth pitch, a slider/cutter hybrid pitch.
Gonsalves was getting some top 100 love coming into the season and pretty consistently one of the top 2 guys in the system. Currently, he’s posted a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP to open the season over 54 innings with a 10/62 BB/K ratio after opening the season on the DL.
In midseason lists Gonsalves may take a bit of a step back due to the limited exposure this summer, but I would wager if he keeps this up through the season, he’ll be back on national lists this year.