The Minnesota Twins Can Satisfy Both 2017 And Long Term At Trade Deadline
Minnesota Twins should take a measured approach to July trading activity
After winning 2 in a row against the Los Angeles Angels, the Minnesota Twins find themselves once again in the thick of the division race after falling out of first and then multiple games back. As Wednesday’s games opened, the Twins found themselves just 1.5 games out of first place in the American League Central Division.
After having just picked first overall in the most recent June draft following a rough 2016 season that saw plenty of hope coming into the year and one of the most disheartening second half performances by a team in recent Minnesota Twins memory, fans are understandably conflicted on how to want the team to respond to the team’s current success.
When the Twins drafted #1 in first place, they became the 3rd team to do so. One of those teams was also a Minnesota Twins team, who also, interestingly, chose a more “money conscious” choice by taking the local guy who would sign for less money in Joe Mauer over the guys in the 2001 draft who were considered the top prospects, Mark Prior and Mark Teixeira. While three teams have selected #1 while in first place, only one team who selected #1 in the draft ever finished first in their division/league in the year, and it was none of the ones leading at the time of the draft.
Next week, the Minnesota Twins will have two All-Star representatives, and while the team is not reputed to have a top-rated farm system overall, there are plenty of pieces that could be utilized to add to the team to fill in holes to “go for it” in 2017. The Twins could also choose to believe that they’re still on a building schedule, in spite of their success and choose to make a trade or two of current veteran players to give young players more time in 2017. Which direction should they go?
What if the team didn’t have to choose? It’s certainly possible that they could make moves that improve the 2017 team while not hurting the future team. Let’s take a look back before we look ahead. That 2001 team ends up being a very good example as it remains the team with the best record to have picked #1 overall. Let’s start by examining how that team approached the situation and some of the similarities to the current roster.
The 2001 Minnesota Twins
When the Twins selected Joe Mauer first overall in 2001, they were sitting in first place in the AL Central, with a 37-19 record, a .661 winning percentage. That team would finish the season in third place in the AL Central, with an 85-77 record. That may sound like a disappointing finish, but there are some very interesting comparable pieces between that team and the 2017 Twins roster.
The Twins did make two moves that season at the trade deadline, but they were from positions of strength to add to positions of need for the roster. Mark Redman was traded to the Detroit Tigers for reliever Todd Jones, and outfielder Matt Lawton was traded to the New York Mets for starting pitcher Rick Reed.
Lawton was the Twins’ All Star representative the season before, with a .305/.405/.460 season with 44 doubles, 13 home runs, and 23 steals, but by the trade deadline, the Twins had seen that they needed an arm that could soak up some innings (though Reed failed badly at that) and that they had a host of young outfielders ready to take over in right field in Brian Buchanan, Bobby Kielty, Chad Allen, and Dustan Mohr.
The fun comparisons for the two squads actually start with the youth in the lineup. Before he was traded, Lawton was the oldest regular in the lineup in his age 29 season. Five of the regular members of the lineup were 25 or under!
These weren’t just young players playing out the string either. This was an outfield that had Lawton, Torii Hunter, and Jacque Jones, an infield with Doug Mientkiewicz, Cristian Guzman, and Corey Koskie, A.J. Pierzynski catching, and some guy named David Ortiz as the primary DH.
While there wasn’t a guy with Ervin Santana’s age and experience to lead a young rotation, Brad Radke was already in his 7th season by 2001, having thrown 1300+ innings as a Twin before the 2001 season. The rest of that 2001 rotation was made of young starters.
The bullpen was the place where there were 30+ year-old veterans on the team, and, just like the 2017 team, that’s where the biggest needs were. The team did bring up a bunch of young arms to give them time, guys like J.C. Romero and Juan Rincon, who would become key relievers during the Twins’ run of AL Central play in the 2000s, and there was also some lefty by the name of Santana.
So to this year’s team…
How to address 2017 without hurting the future
The Twins may not have any prospects who are top 10 in the game, but they have one of the youngest rosters in the entire game, with only one regular starter who is over 31 (Mauer). Even the pitching staff is primarily young pitchers, with only Santana in the current working rotation that’s over 30.
The bullpen is another matter, however. While he’s been successful this season again, Brandon Kintzler continues to be a 32 year-old that is getting good results with lesser stuff than a typical closer – and he’s currently the most “dominant” Twins reliever.
While the bench could possibly use some depth, Eduardo Escobar, Chris Gimenez, and Ehire Adrianza are adequate with some quality options in the upper minors that could help in players like outfielder Zack Granite and a pair of catchers, Mitch Garver and John Ryan Murphy, in AAA, and infielders Nick Gordon and Levi Michael at AA.
The game, however, has seemingly changed while the construction of the current Twins bullpen has not. The Twins have the lowest K% of any bullpen in baseball by over 2% to the next worst bullpen and almost half the strikeout rate (30.5% to 18.0%) of the top-rated bullpen in the game in the statistic.
The game, however, has seemingly changed while the construction of the current Twins bullpen has not.
The Twins could do well if their control in their bullpen was just as extreme on the positive end, and while the Twins have the sixth-best walk rate by a bullpen in baseball, they’ve still got the lowest percentage number in the game when you subtract walk rate from strikeout rate, which usually helps to balance out teams that strike out a ton but with pitchers that struggle to control the ball. That still doesn’t help the Twins bullpen look better!
So, if bullpen help is what is in need, the Twins will be in a tough market, but the good part for the Twins is that they have a guy they feel comfortable with in the 9th inning in Kintzler.
The Twins do have some guys who have that sort of high-velocity, “dominant stuff” profile in the minor leagues currently, so they could bring some of them up to the major leagues in Jake Reed and J.T. Chargois when they are healthy, though both are currently returning from injury and unsure if they’re going to be able to help at all in 2017, so perhaps the trade market would make some sense for a short-term, rental type.
So, trading for a reliever could be the option to bring someone in, but who could be traded away without waving the white flag? Let’s take a look…
How to address long term without tanking 2017
In all of baseball right now, the Minnesota Twins have the 3rd youngest lineup average age of anyone who has taken a plate appearance for the team this season, however, the pitching is one of the oldest in baseball, ranking as the 8th oldest pitching staff in baseball this season.
The Twins could use their position to take advantage of a market heavy after pitching this season to move Craig Breslow, once he returns healthy, and Matt Belisle from their bullpen. While Belisle’s raw ERA has been poor, he has a FIP nearly a run and a half lower, giving up half of his earned runs in two appearances roughly a week apart in late April/early May.
The big fish that everyone wants to talk about is Ervin Santana, but Santana’s veteran leadership and performance this season along with a reasonable contract through 2018 makes him worth keeping around as a veteran presence in the rotation with likely young arms filling out the rotation behind him going forward.
Instead of moving “Big Erv”, the team could focus on moving guys like Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson, and Phil Hughes. While none have been exemplary this season, Hughes is the only one older than 30 of the trio.
Hughes will be the toughest to trade of that trio, with $26M+ owed to him over 2018-2019. Santiago is a free agent after this season, and Gibson is eligible for arbitration.
In the stead of these three arms, the Twins could be getting more looks at their host of arms in the upper minors, some of which have already made appearances in the major leagues this year, like Felix Jorge, Nik Turley, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, and Kohl Stewart. Ryan Eades has also been working as a starter since coming off his most recent DL stint and looks like the guy the Twins drafted in 2013, so the arms are certainly there to fill out the rotation the rest of the season.
Perhaps there won’t be a huge return on those three guys, but if they could simply clear Hughes’ future salary to some degree and open the rotation spots to see what they have out of the arms currently in the upper minors, the return wouldn’t need to be more than a good flyer prospect or two.
So who should the Twins target? Let’s take a look…
Trade targets
With the depth of young pitching coming, the Twins could use some of their young arms in the bullpen, so it would be understandable to not go after a guy in the manner that the Yankees shopped Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.
That said, there should be some teams moving pieces that would make sense. One would be Atlanta righty Arodys Vizcaino. Vizcaino has some checkers in his past with injury and a PED suspension, but he’s been tremendous this season, posting a 2.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP as the setup man in Atlanta, using his high velocity stuff to strike out 27.9% of the hitters he’s faced this season. Vizcaino is eligible for arbitration this season, and it’s feasible that if he produces well down the stretch, he could be a good offseason trade piece before he hits arbitration.
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While Oakland hasn’t put up the white flag by any means yet, they’re in last in their division, and they’ve already been fielding plenty of offers on their starting pitching, so it’s certainly feasible that their bullpen pieces would be open season as well. A guy like Ryan Madson seems to be a carbon copy of Kintzler, but he’s been reliable and has one more year under contract. The real guy to target in the Oakland bullpen may be lefty Sean Doolittle. The big-bearded converted first baseman was born in South Dakota, so he’s a born Midwesterner, signed through 2018 with two very reasonable options for 2019 and 2020.
While Addison Reed may be one of the most desirable relievers on the market, and the Mets have announced that they’re “open for business”, very likely the primary team looking for relief help, the Washington Nationals, are an in-division rival for the Mets, making a trade unlikely there. Reed would cost more than other options mentioned here, but he’s been dominant for two seasons in New York now, and he’s a pending free agent, so he may not cost as much as other options with a year or more control left.
The Twins could go big for a pair of relievers from San Diego and bring home a Twin Cities guy as part of the deal. Brad Hand very possibly could end up the most desirable arm on the trade market this July, starter or reliever, so he won’t likely come cheap, but the Padres are looking for big-time upside assets, so the Twins could probably make an offer with some of the big time players they have in the lower minors right now, not hurting their immediate future. The guy who I have been incredibly impressed by as a pop-up performer in 2017 is Kirby Yates, who has recorded a 2.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 8/42 BB/K over 27 innings for the Padres after seeing his fastball tick up a few MPH and really seeing his back door slider add break this season, making it a huge weapon, especially against righty hitters.
To get more in depth on the total reliever market, keep following MLB Trade Rumors as more teams get into the market. There will be teams making their decision to sell at various points in this coming month.
One of the best Twins trade acquisitions in their history was Shannon Stewart, who ended up being a big piece for the 2003 Minnesota Twins as they overcame the Chicago White Sox and won the AL Central before falling to the Yankees in the ALDS.
The Twins addressed a specific need that season, getting an upcoming free agent to solidify a need that the team had in the leadoff position of the lineup. This season, they could do similar with their bullpen in what we’ve explored here.
What do you think?! Should the Twins follow this path or should they go all in on one direction – buyer or seller? Comment below!