Grading My 2016 Minnesota Twins Preseason Predictions
World Series Now a Memory, Postseason Awards Season Beginning, I Can Now Grade my 2016 Minnesota Twins Preseason Predictions.
My prediction that the Cubs would break their 108-year World Series drought came to fruition with their seven game win over the Cleveland Indians.
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That was one of 12 predictions our writing staff each came up with just prior to the 2016 season. Some I nailed (see “Cubs Win, Cubs Win, Cubs Win!”), some fell flat (Twins will be one of the AL Wild Cards).
Martin Schlegel has already graded his, now it’s my turn. Here were my predictions, along with a grade for every one.
We looked at who would break out, and who would bust. Who might get traded, and who could bring home some hardware during the award season. We also turned our crystal ball to the 2016 MLB postseason.
Let’s do this.
To read the full 2016 Twins preseason predictions, click here.
1. Who will catch more games, Murphy or Suzuki?. . A-. “Suzuki. I think this year is a comeback year for him. If Murphy’s struggles at the plate continue early on into the regular season, Suzuki gains more games early on, and if he hits anywhere near as good as he looks right now, Murphy will only get 1-2 games a week.”
My thought was that Suzuki would be primed for a great season playing for his next contract. John Ryan Murphy got some starts early on, but was just 3-40 (.075), before being sent down for Juan Centeno.
Centeno was the surprise here, playing well enough for Murphy not be called back up until September. Upon his recall, Murphy collected three hits in his first start against the White Sox.
While he hit just above .200 after his return, Murphy’s play has the Twins looking at Jason Castro in free agency. Centeno has earned another look in Spring Training.
I’ll give myself a generous “A-” for getting the actual prediction right, but I was more high on Suzuki than our other writers. Suzuki was hitting only .212 at the end of May, but a great June and decent July made him an obvious trade target in July, but the Twins could never find a trading partner.
Suzuki is now a free agent, but was well-liked by fans and teammates alike. If he strikes out in free agency, he may see his was back to Target Field for 2017.
How many home runs will Sano hit? Park?. . D+. “Sano’s at bats may suffer if he does poorly in the field, but I still think he can hit 32 even if he is in a funk, he’s that good. Park can roll out of bed and hit 30 HRs. An early jump before pitchers learn about him is expected, a split of 20/10 is likely between the 2 halves of the season.”. 2
Miguel Sano struggled trying to adapt to right field. It seems those struggles affected his at-bats as well. While he showed flashes of power of the plate (home runs in four consecutive games in late May), he finished with just 25 for the year.
Meanwhile, Byung-ho Park was on track to hit 30 home runs, but his batting average and high strikeout rate earned him a demotion to AAA Rochester. His struggles continued there, before injuries ended his season.
He finished with just 12 home runs in 62 games before his demotion at the start of July. He was leading the Twins in home runs at the time, but that’s not enough to drag my grade out of the “D'” range.
3. When will Jose Berrios debut?. . B. “Someone will tweak an elbow or a hamstring. Duffey may get the call first but Berrios will his chance. I’ll say May 10th.”
I missed this prediction by two weeks. Jose Berrios made a splash in his first handful of starts, out-pitching reigning Cy Young award-winner Dallas Keuchel in Houston, snapping Keuchel’s long home winning streak.
But control issues surfaced soon after. Berrios would go down to pitch well at Rochester, then get promoted only to have those issues return.
While I may have been off by saying May, I did get it right that Tyler Duffey would get the first call-up, bringing my grade up to a “B”.
“I think he’s legit. And an outfield of Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler has me reminiscing about the great outfield of my youth, the Montreal Expos. Buxton being Tim “Rock” Raines, of course.”. 4. Is Eddie Rosario legitimate?. . C
Rosario fell flat out of the gate this year, batting exactly .200 in both April and May, before being sent down. Upon his recall, Rosario batted over .300 in both July and August.He batted his career average (.268) during the stretch run.
After two seasons, batting near the .270 mark, this is probably what Rosario is: A speedy outfielder, prone to strikeouts, aggressive at the plate (15 & 12 walks in each of his first two seasons), with occasional gap power.
The major league leader in triples for 2015 (15), hit only two in his sophomore campaign. He was one of 11 Twins to hit 10 or more home runs this past season.
But he is limited to a corner outfield position. Pressed into duty at center for a stretch of games after Byron Buxton was sent down, Rosario struggled defensively.
We may have seen Rosario’s ceiling his rookie year, but he should develop more patience at the plate, earning more walks that will help his on-base percentage. If he bulks up a bit more, we may also see a few more home runs.
I’m giving myself a “B” since his play in left field with the other two young Twins mentioned in my prediction was stellar at times. But we still don’t know what the Twins have in Rosario.
A+. “Pitcher, Nolasco. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Perkins is dealt if his velocity issues persist. Position player, <a rel=. 5. Which player is the most likely to be traded this year?.
Two for two! Ricky Nolasco was traded for Hector Santiago in July, after Eduardo Nunez was dealt to the San Francisco Giants. But the first player dealt was Arcia, to the Tampa Bay Rays on June 24th. Arcia had been designated for assignment the week before.
D-. “As I stated earlier, I think it will be Suzuki. He will have lots of RBI opportunities. A repeat of his All-Star 1st half from a couple years ago wouldn’t surprise me at all. I think Byung-ho Park is the real deal. Him hitting 30+ HRs wouldn’t be a surprise, or “breakout” to me.”. 6. Who will be the Twins breakout player of 2016?.
Wow, I was all in on Suzuki in March. Instead, Suzuki hit most of his marks for career averages across the board. Not really a “break out” season. Twins will start over at the catching position next year. Let’s move on.
7. Who is the biggest risk to be a bust?. . A-. “I’ll agree with Martin. Buxton does have some “bust” in his plate approach. Too many strikeouts. Gotta cut down on that swing like Kirby did early on and just make good contact. In a year or so, the power will follow as his confidence at the plate grows.”
First off, I’m upset with getting this pick right. Secondly, I’m glad Buxton started proving me wrong near the end of the season.
After a horrid start, and bouncing between AAA and the majors, Buxton finally produced in September, slashing .287 / .357 / .653 / 9 HR / 22 RBI for the month.
Truth be told, he played great defensively, even while he was struggling at the plate. While he didn’t win the AL Rookie of the Year as many predicted, he at least showed flashes of promise as 2016 wrapped up.
F. “Silver Slugger and maybe a Gold Glove for Dozier? Rookie of the Year to Park. I’ll go all in on Suzuki and give him a Silver Slugger for catcher. Go big or go home with these predictions, amirite?”. 8. Will any Twins win awards at the end of the year?.
Worst prediction award goes to this question. Park didn’t even make it to the All-Star game before being sent down, and Suzuki disappointed me here as well.
But, while Brian Dozier probably won’t win either the Silver Slugger (Jose Altuve won 2016 award) or Golden Glove, he should be in the top two or three for each award.
Dozier had a career-defining year, hitting 42 HR / 104 R / 99 RBI. A mini-slump during the season’s last week kept him from becoming a 100/100 runs and RBI hitter. He did score over 100 runs for the third consecutive season.
It will be interesting to see how Dozier does (if he’s not traded) with the Twins after hitting coach Tom Brunansky was let go. Dozier has blossomed into a power hitter under Bruno’s tutelage.
9. Do the Twins make the playoffs?. . F. “I think they get one of the two Wild Card spots. KC is still too good right now, and last year’s title will give them the confidence to repeat as division winners.”
Oops. While many predicted the Twins may fall short of the high expectations from getting close in 2015, no one saw this stinker coming. Minnesota Twins’ record of 103 losses, beating the record set by the infamous 1982 squad.
F. “White Sox are a mess. From the field to the front office. Tigers are old, and with age comes injuries, and they already had a lot of missed games last year. Indians have a solid top of the rotation and a couple solid hitters, but no real depth yet. They are behind the Twins by 18 months of development. Twins are on the rise, and will capture a Wild Card spot. Maybe more if Ryan can get us some relievers. Royals very well could be playing in their 3rd straight World Series.”. 10. How will the AL Central shake out this year?.
White Sox were a mess, and their clubhouse situation was the oddest in the league. Tigers were old, and that made them fade in the second half.
The Cleveland Indians’ rotation was solid, and they overcame injuries to two of their top starters and still made it to the World Series! Maybe I meant to say they were 18 months ahead of the Twins!
KC, fell off as their bullpen couldn’t keep up its incredible showings in 2014 and 2015. And the Twins? Yikes! Let’s look at the next prediction to make me feel better.
A. “It’s going to be a classic this year as the Chicago Cubs beat the KC Royals 4 games to 3. The curse is over.”. 11. Who will win the World Series?.
While not as prescient as the high school student who predicted the Cubs would win the World Series in 2016 way back in his 1993 yearbook (!), I’ll give myself an “A” for my own prediction back in March.
I even had them defeating an AL Central team, but instead they defeated Cleveland four games to three – not the Royals. Close enough for the “A” grade.
12. What would make 2016 a successful season?. . D. “Win a Wild Card spot, and hopefully host the play-in game. I really think they could take anyone other than the Royals. An ALCS against KC would be fun to watch. I really think the Twins are next level right now, just below the Cubs, Royals, Nationals who all have so much talent further along than us right now.”
Well, that would have made 2016 a successful season…but so would have 80 wins – or even 70 – compared to how 2016 actually sorted out.
Next: Grading Martin's Predictions for 2016
Minnesota had flashes this year of a good ballclub. The stretch from the last week of June through the first week of August had many Twins faithful optimistic. But it ended up being a mirage, not an oasis, in the Twins’ desert that was the 2016 season.