Minnesota Twins relievers are seeing reduced velocities across the board early this year
The Minnesota Twins’ bullpen has a solid 2.97 ERA and has seen improvements in its strikeout rate (9.75 K/9). However, their 1.19 HR/9 and 3.81 BB/9 are below average.
They’ve also blown a league high 7 save situations and have the 4th lowest WPA (win probability added) mark in MLB.
It’s been a tale of two bullpen for Minnesota thus far. The numbers seem contradictory. What’s accounting for the disparity? Basically, the Twins are pitching quite well in less crucial relief situations and quite poorly in the most important situations.
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The net result is that the bullpen has been a weakness for the team in 2016. What’s behind the struggles? Psychology? Bad luck? There’s no evidence to reasonably comment on mental state and the Twins bullpen’s BABIP against (batting average on balls in play) is pretty much league average which would suggest luck hasn’t been much of a factor (their home run to fly ball ratio isn’t abnormal either).
Their issues could, however, be tied to velocity. Twins relievers have averaged 92.03 MPH on their fastballs in 2016. That’s 17th in the majors and nearly 1 MPH slower than those same relievers’ 2015 average (92.96 MPH).
Glen Perkins‘ velocity problems have been well documented but it is a issue for all Twins relievers early this season it would seem. Here’s a breakdown of velocity differences for the Twins’ bullpen (all figures from the marvellous Fangraphs):
- Kevin Jepsen
2016 FB velocity: 94.1 MPH
2015 FB velocity: 94.4 MPH
Difference from 2015 to 2016: -0.3 MPH - Fernando Abad
89.7
91
-1.3 - Trevor May
93.8
92.9
0.9 - Casey Fien
92.2
92.6
-0.4 - Ryan O’Rourke
89.2
90.6
-1.4 - Ryan Pressly
93.6
94.2
-0.6 - Michael Tonkin
93.3
94.3
-1.0 - Glen Perkins
91.3
93.7
-2.4
Trevor May’s velocity has gone up quite significantly from 2015 but it should be recalled that May started 16 games last yet. His relief FB velocity has actually declined somewhat from last year:
Fastball velocities do generally increase over the course of a season but that varies from pitcher to pitcher. The increase is largest from April to May and peaks at July/August after which it slowly declines.
As the season progresses, Jepsen, Fien, May and Pressly should be able to match or exceed their average relief FB velocities from 2015. Even with increases over the remainder of the season, Perkins, O’Rourke, Tonkin and Abad will be hard pressed to reach their 2015 averages.
Fastball velocities should increase for the Twins bullpen over the year but so will the velocities of the other 29 teams. This means that the Twins will likely stay around 17th for fastball velocity this year. The presence of Alex Meyer should help boost the average velocity of the bullpen.
Higher velocities do not necessarily correlate with a better bullpen but they certainly don’t hurt—especially when it can be controlled. Relievers can be successful at various speeds but all relievers tend to suffer when they see prolonged decreases from their usual marks. And there are a few Twins’ relievers who are experiencing prolonged decreases.
At this early point in the year, Twins’ relievers overall may not have their liveliest stuff yet and it could be that opposing batters have been able to jump on those slower pitches in key situations. Most of the bullpen should see their pitches gain punch over the year, but the speeds of 3 or 4 members of the relief corps are cause for concern.