Minnesota Twins: Five Bold Predictions for 2016
FIVE REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE MINNESOTA TWINS IN 2016
Projecting the potential for this year’s Minnesota Twins is somewhat of an enigma. We’re still only a handful of games into Spring Training but already it’s comforting to see how well the Twins’ spring has gone.
On one end, the Twins bring a lot of potential to the table and could continue to improve and compete if all goes well. But on paper, the team is full of questions with both their pitching and hitting.
With what was really a middling offense, a starting rotation that, while improved, was still inconsistent and a bullpen that was among the worst in ERA in the majors, the Twins will need to take some big steps forward to compete with the reigning World Series Champion Kansas City Royals.
So what are the expectations for the Twins this season? How will they finish the season? How will manager Paul Molitor’s sophomore season at the helm pan out?
Here are some bold predictions for what I think/hope will happen this season. And I understand it is still early and I fully admit I am always overconfident the Twins will turn things around quickly and compete for a World Series but I promise these expectations will be rather grounded.
Next: Miguel Sano's Emergence
MIGUEL SANO WILL HIT .278 WITH 35 HOMERS AND 105 RBI
Okay, so I’ll admit even I may be getting a little ahead of myself with these video game-esque statistics but the expectations will be insanely high for Sano’s first full season with the big league club.
Why I believe these numbers are doable for the big man is simply because of the monster numbers he put for the Twins in just 80 games last year.
Not only did he show the ability to drive the ball and knock in some runs, he also showed he has a more than capable eye at the plate. And if he can continue to improve his patience, he’ll be a true force in the heart of the Twins’ lineup.
That being said, Sano’s biggest struggles will come with his strikeouts. In those 80 games, he also fanned 119 times, which means it is very possible we see him strike out a lot. I’m talking in the 160’s-170’s.
Still, Sano was able to hit consistently well and put up a respectable .269 average despite the strikeouts. And with some new offensive firepower helping protect him in the order, Sano may feel more comfortable with less stress put on him to drive in runs for the team.
And as long as his confidence doesn’t take a hit if he begins to struggle in the outfield, I feel this prediction is actually realistic.
Next: Mauer's Comeback
JOE MAUER WILL HIT .290 AND MAKE HIS SEMI-COMEBACK
No, hitting .290 is still not worth $23 million. No, he will not hit 28 home runs again. No, he’ll probably never even come close to that .365 average from 2009.
But if we can get a the former Most Valuable Player to hit .290, that’ll be a victory.
Look, it hasn’t been any honeymoon for Mauer post-concussion but if he feels healthy after struggling with blurred vision then that’s all the more to feel optimistic.
Sure, one can take the blurry vision as more of an excuse than anything but in light of his most recent seasons, it makes sense.
Mauer is firmly locked in at first base and the Twins will probably not trade/release him so we might as well give up on that. But a healthy Mauer and a batting average of .290 seems to be the step in the right direction for not only him but the team as well.
Having someone who can consistently take walks, drive it to the gap and hit for average will be all the Twins need from Mauer. Yes, the contract is still large but work with me here, the less pressure on Mauer to perform the better for the team.
Next: The Rotation
THE ROTATION WILL BE GOOD, NOT GREAT, BUT BETTER
There were some serious signs of improvement for the Twins’ rotation last season. The ERA went down but the strikeouts were still not there.
These numbers are sure to improve. No more Mike Pelfrey, a full season with Ervin Santana and the soon-to-be emergence of Jose Berrios will all play into the Twins’ rotation taking a leap forward.
Santana had a rough set of outings during his shortened seasons but really came along in the final month as he found his stride. With a full Spring Training and, hopefully, a shorter gap than 80 games between the spring and his regular season debut, Santana should be ready to go.
Another plus for the Twins will be a full season of Tyler Duffey in the rotation. Duffey played an integral part in the Twins’ race for a postseason berth as he added some much needed stability to the staff.
With Berrios potentially being added to the rotation, Phil Hughes looking strong so far this spring after an injury-plagued season and Kyle Gibson looking to improve on his exceptional 2015 season, the Twins’ rotation may continue its upward trend.
Strikeouts, however, are still elusive. Duffey and Gibson both have the “stuff” to become strikeout pitchers but until they show they can be capable of that; the Twins will look to some of their veteran staffers to do so.
Next: The Bullpen
THE BULLPEN WILL REBOUND
The Twins have always been able to put together a solid bullpen, which is why last season was such a mystery.
All-Star Glen Perkins was perfect heading into the break but struggled the rest of way with inconsistency and injuries.
A combination of Brian Duensing, Blaine Boyer, Neal Cotts, JR Graham and Ryan O’Rourke were anything but ideal options in relief.
So why do I think the bullpen will rebound?
Well, a healthy Perkins, a full season of Kevin Jepsen and Trevor May in the pen and the potential to see some strikeout pitchers in the mix leave me very optimistic.
This of course is based primarily on the idea that we will see guys like JT Chargois, Alex Meyer and Jake Reed make appearances with the club this season. I believe Meyer will rebound nicely from his brief stint with the Twins last year and a few of the young arms such as Chargois and Reed will show up and, hopefully, use their velocity to miss a few bats.
Meyer has struggled so far this spring but both Reed and Chargois have done well in their limited appearances. None of these three have to necessarily make the roster coming out Spring Training but that shouldn’t prevent them from eventually getting called up and making an impact.
Besides, why else would General Manager Terry Ryan not make a big move for a reliever this offseason? He must have a firm belief the answer to the Twins’ bullpen issues lies within the organization.
Next: Final Predictions
THE TWINS WILL ONCE AGAIN FINISH IN SECOND BUT MUCH CLOSER THAN 2015
Yes, I understand. The White Sox got Todd Frazier, the Kansas City Royals are the Champs. The Detroit Tigers have Jordan Zimmerman and Miguel Cabrera.
Well you know what? The Twins have a lineup that will feature a full season of Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. A pitching staff with a full season of Ervin Santana, Tyler Duffey, a healthy Phil Hughes and potentially Jose Berrios.
What I’m getting at is the Twins will be no slouch either. It’s easy to get caught up in the talk regarding the rest of the competition but keep in mind the Twins found a way to scrape together enough wins to stay in the playoff hunt up until the final weekend of the season.
The addition of Byung Ho Park and the hopeful return to form for Joe Mauer should also give the offense a boost against a division full of some tough pitching.
No, I do not think the Twins will win the Central much less the World Series but I do believe they will still be in second and will be much closer in the final standings than last year.
Of course the season could go extremely south in a heartbeat but at this point, it’s best to remain optimistic and my optimism says a second place finish for the Twins who are on their way to a potential playoff push in 2017.